Development? Introduction. Simple transaction in a developed economy: buying a used car is difficult because of hidden quality (Akerlof, 1970). Methods have developed to alleviate this problem: garage checks, warranties, databases to track car history, regulations to protect consumers. In developing countries, hidden quality is not the only problem. Car may be stolen, difficult to sue or even track down the seller, consumers less likely to be protected, courts work less well This simple example for a simple transaction is an illustration of the importance of institutions in minimizing transaction costs and encouraging economic development. Introduction In Singapore, it takes 6 days to start a business (for 11 procedures), In Congo, it takes 155 days for 13 procedures In Venezuela, it takes 141 days for 14 procedures In Laos, it takes 163 days for 8 procedures In Vietnam, it takes 50 days for 11 procedures In China, it takes 35 days for 13 procedures. In India, the same. In New Zealand, it takes 12 days for 2 procedures In the US, 5 days for 5 procedures. The institutionalist point of view Fundamental concept for institutionalists is rule of law: executive decisions can only be exercised in accordance with written and publicly disclosed laws. Moreover, law enforcement itself follows well-established procedures. The rule of law contrasts with autocratic regimes. Rule of law usually taken for granted but is fragile or absent in many developing countries. In advanced economies, took centuries to establish. The institutionalist point of view Douglas North (Nobel prize in 1993) has argued consistently that institutions are a key determinant to explain success in development. England introduced checks on power of the king, gave power to the parliament, established rule of law and was the first country to industrialize. Spain had a very autocratic regime, despotism, unbridled military spending and predatory bureaucracy. Despite strong colonial conquests, gold and power, Spain did not develop and became one of Europes poorest countries until late twentieth century. The institutionalist point of view Institutionalist approach to economics (North, Williamson, Acemoglu, Johnson, Robinson ) claims that differences in institutional setups in different countries are a key factor to explain successes and failures in development. Why Doesnt capital flow from rich to poor countries? Robert Lucas (1990), other Nobel prize winner estimated that a dollar invested in India should earn a return 58 times (fifty-eight!) higher than a dollar invested in the US economy. Reason: So little capital in developing countries. Truck with capacity of 25 tons to transport wooden planks 10 miles easily replaces 4000 man-days of manual labor (assuming truck makes 4 roundtrips and one man transports 50 pounds in one day)! Why and where is this potential marginal productivity lost if capital does not flow to poor countries? Why Doesnt capital flow form rich to poor countries? Weakness of institutions might account for this puzzle. Investments may be expropriated if property rights not well protected. Corrupt bureaucrats may extract bribes. Contracts may not be respected. Courts might not be helpful Infrastructure may be lacking. Local entrepreneurs face similar problems as foreign investors and do not invest much. What are Institutions? Definition by Douglass North (1990: 3): constraints on behavior imposed by the rules of the game in society: Institutions include any form of constraint that human beings devise to shape human interaction. Includes formal and informal institutions. Very broad definition as it includes social norms. Trade or steal? Imagine Abuu, East African farmer on the road to sell maize. He meets Nabil who sells cotton tissue. Economists are used to thinking that advantageous trade will take place. But this presupposes institutions. Theft might be a more natural outcome. Trade instead of violence presupposes internalization of formal rule (fear of being caught breaking the law) or informal rules of behavior (ethical or religious rule of conduct). Differences in institutions make large differences. If human energies can be channeled away from violent activities towards peaceful and productive activities, it makes a much larger difference than differences in skills or endowments. The level of human capital in Russia was quite high before the fall of communism. However, the institutions that emerged during the transition process were not conducive to strong development. The Russian economy declined for many years. During those critical years of early transition, the education system suffered enormously and the level of human capital in Russia started declining strongly. The high level of initial human capital could not help Russia avert economic decline. Institutional diversity Good institutions can reduce transaction costs, prevent violence and predatory behavior and channel energies towards productive activities. Bad institutions can increase transaction costs and lead to underdevelopment, violence and poverty. A simple transaction like the purchase of a commodity say a car, requires the transfer of a commodity from the seller to the buyer and the transfer of cash from the buyer to the seller. If the two operations are not synchronized, there may be problems depending on who moves first. The seller may never show up to deliver the car or deliver a lemon. The buyer may never bring the money. The more sophisticated the transaction, the more opportunities for cheating and predatory behavior. Without adequate institutions, transactions would be much more costly. What are Institutions? Recognizing that institutions are important is only a first step. We must study different institutions and their effects. Distinction between formal and informal institutions. Formal institutions have written codified rules enforced by the government. Ex: Political and legal institutions. Informal institutions are conventions, social norms related to culture. Formal and informal institutions interact. Interaction between institutions. Laws evolve with culture and social norms. Ex.: Abolition of death penalty. Tensions between informal and formal institutions. In Africa, arbitrariness of national boundaries and continuation of ethnic loyalties. May lead to violent conflicts but also different functioning of government (nepotism seen as moral duty and not a bad thing) Difficulty of imposing laws that violate popular religious obligations. Interaction between institutions. Complementarities between congruent institutions: norm of honesty backed by laws punishing cheating. Tensions between formal and informal institutions may lead to unexpected consequences but may also destroy traditional institutions without replacing them (gender roles, kinship ties) What do institutions do? Provide different solutions to 1) informational problems, 2) hold-up problems, 3) commitment problems, 4) cooperation problems, 5) coordination problems Informational problems.
Asymmetric information important in many transactions
(food, cars, software, houses), credit relation. Example: good second hand cars worth $10,000 to the seller and $12,000 to the buyer. Bad second hand cars worth $5,000 to the seller and $4,000 to the buyer. Without informational asymmetry, only good cars sell and make $2,000 profit. Assume informational asymmetry and 50% probability car is good or bad. Risk neutral buyer ready to pay 5x12,000 + .5x4,000= $8,000 for a car. Suppliers withdraw good cars and no cars sell. Market collapses. particularly important in the case of credit. Lender may not lend to honest borrower. Assume good and bad borrowers. Good type is creditworthy and needs money for a project with 10% return. Bad type does not intend to pay back. Assume bank must pay depositors 6% interest rate (otherwise go to competing bank). Without asymmetric information, bank lends only to good borrower and gets 4% profit. Under asymmetric information and 50-50 chance of having good or bad borrower, needs to charge 12% to pay depositors. Good borrower does not borrow since can only make 10%, only bad borrower stays! Adverse selection. Bad borrower chasing good one. Increasing credit rates does not balance market. If excess demand for credit, higher interest rates chase good borrowers and reduces profit of banks! Moral hazard. Borrower chooses risky project if limited liability. Other examples of moral hazard: land laborer does not work hard on land, renters do not maintain apartment, insured drivers are more reckless, . Solutions to informational problems Legal solutions: Disclosure rules Regulation of entry in certain professions (lawyers and doctors). Contractual or spontaneous solutions: Association of warranty to sales contract, return policy Brand names, franchise contracts. Chain stores as informational intermediaries. Rating agencies (??), credit report companies, ebay ratings Contractual solutions work best when backed by the law (important for dispute resolution) Solutions to informational problems Under weak institutions, reputation and repeated interaction are main instruments to overcome informational problems. Relational contracting. Lock-in in long term relationship to have credible threat of punishment. Bad for competition and market development. Markets and competition develop more vigorously when good formal institutions are present. For reputation to work, importance of good circulation of information. Poor countries have weaker institutions and informal institutions work less well. The holdup problem. One business partner holds up the other after an investment is sunk. Ex.: A company produces axles and signs contract with truck company. Investment of 10,000 is needed and variable cost of 20 per axle. Truck company promises a price of 30 and orders 1,000 axles. Axle company will break even. Costs = 10,000 + 20x1,000 = 30,000 and sales will be 30,000 also. After the investment of 10,000 is made, the truck company renegotiates and offers to pay only 25 per axle. If the subcontractor refuses, loss is 10,000. If accepts, payoff is 25x1,000 20x1,000 10,000= -5,000. Prefers to accept! Reason is sunk cost. Holdup problem hurts investment. Subcontractor would not have invested if expected holdup! The holdup problem. Holdup problems are ubiquitous. Holdup problem is more acute if relation- specific investment. Axle investment used only for truck company. No informational asymmetries here, only relation-specific investment (asset- specificity), sunk investment and opportunistic behavior. Solutions to the holdup problem. Binding and legally enforceable contracts obvious solution to holdup problem. First order effect. Contracts are incomplete and do not completely exclude holdup. Vertical integration. Truck company produces axles itself. Requires higher level of capital (difficult for firms in developing countries where weak formal institutions)! Social norms do not work well if agents pursue self-interest. The commitment problem. Commitment problem very general in economics and human behavior in general. Arises with all sequential transactions. The holdup problem is a particular commitment problem. Ex.: buyer does not pay, supplier does not deliver as promised, or more subtle forms of reoptimization: Budgets within bureaucracy, information arriving later, The inability to commit hurts both parties because one may forgo transactions profitable for both parties. The inability to commit may weaken the bargaining power of the party that is reoptimizing (soft budget constraints, negotiating with terrorists) and its credibility (central bank, monopoly with durable goods). Solutions to the commitment problem
Formal contracts are first order. Third party
enforcement. Informal means. Witnesses on markets. Informal ways of signalling credibility: cutting bridges, yakuza methods, making large investment as commitment to compete. Informal enforcement agencies sometimes used but often criminal orgin. The cooperation problem. The prisoners dilemma B Stays Silent B confesses Prisoner A serves ten years A Stays Silent Both serve six months Prisoner B goes free Prisoner A goes free A confesses Both serve two years Prisoner B serves ten years
Symbol of inefficiency of self-interest maximization
The cooperation problem. Protection of the environment. Tragedy of the commons. Collective action problem. Different forms of association (Unions, parties, NGOs, ) help overcome the cooperation problem. Political institutions help overcome the collective action problem (democracy) or exacerbate it (dictatorship). International cooperation requires international institutions. The coordination problem. Different from the cooperation problem. Different equilibria are possible. Ex.: Drive on the right or on the left. Meet at the train station or airport. Law abidance problem. Tax evasion problem. Solutions to the coordination problem.
Traffic laws and laws in general.
Regulation of standards. Rail tracks! Many informal solutions: conventions (calling back, nodding, body language, ) Cultural misunderstandings arise because of incorrect decoding of conventions. Focal points (Schelling, Nobel prize 2005). Informal and formal institutions. Informal institutions only do not give as good a solution to the transaction problems mentioned: relational contracting bad for competition and market development reputation requires good circulation of information Enforcement of social norms relies on peer pressure which works better under lack of mobility, strong cohesion and rigid and closed societies. Why do institutions emerge? Understanding what institutions do and how they emerge are different questions. We know what a microwave oven does but this does not tell us how it was discovered. Danger of functionalist fallacy, explaining the historical emergence of an institution by what it does. Inefficient institutions exist and persist (dictatorial regimes, rampant corruption, inefficient courts,). Overcoming inefficient institutions is difficult in part because of the collective action problem. Inefficient social norms also exist (discrimination against women) and maybe even more difficult to overcome. Conclusion. Institutions matter for development as they can solve many important transaction problems, reduce transactions costs and lead to higher development. Difference between formal and informal institutions. We have seen what institutions do, we have not seen how and why they emerge.