Chapter

2 Probability

Psychology

Business
Weather forecast
Elementary Statistics
Larson Farber

Games Medicine
Sports

1
 Important Terms
Probability experiment: Roll a die
An action through which counts,
measurements or responses are obtained

Sample space: {1 2 3 4 5 6}

The set of all possible outcomes

Event: {Die is even}={2 4 6}

A subset of the sample space.

Outcome: {4}

The result of a single trial

Larson/Farber Ch. 3 2
 Another Experiment
Probability Experiment:
An action through which counts,
measurements, or responses are obtained
Choose a car from production line
Sample Space: The set of all possible
outcomes
Q Q Q Q Q Q   Q
Event: A subset of the sample space.

    
Outcome: The result of a single trial
Larson/Farber Ch. 3
 3
 Types of Probability
Classical (equally probable outcomes)
Number of outcomes in event E
P(E) 
Number of outcomes in sample space

Empirical
Frequency of event E
P(E) 
Total Frequency

Probability blood pressure will decrease

after medication

Intuition

Larson/Farber Ch. 3 4
Probability the line will be busy
 Tree Diagrams
2nd1 roll 1,1
1,2
2
1st roll 3 1,3
Two dice are rolled. 4
1,4
1,5
Describe the 5 1.6
6 2,1
sample space. 1 1 2,2
2,3
3 2,4
2,5
2 5 2.6
1
2
3
3 4

1 4,1
Start 4 2 4,2
3 4,3
4 4,4
5 4,5
6 4.6
5 1
2 5,1
5,2
3
4 5,3
5 5,4
5,5
6 6
5.6
1
2
3
Larson/Farber Ch. 3 36 4 5
5
outcomes 6
 Sample Spaces and Probabilities

Two dice are rolled and the sum is noted.

1,1 2,1 3,1 4,1 5,1 6,1

1,2 2,2 3,2 4,2 5,2 6,2
1,3 2,3 3,3 4,3 5,3 6,3
1,4 2,4 3,4 4,4 5,4 6,4
1,5 2,5 3,5 4,5 5,5 6,5
1,6 2,6 3,6 4,6 5,6 6,6

Find the probability the sum is 4

Find the probability the sum is 11

Find the probability the sum is 4 or 11

Larson/Farber Ch. 3 6
 Complementary Events
The complement of event E is event E.
E consists of all the events in the sample space
that are not in event E.

E E P(E´) = 1 - P(E)

 The day’s production consists of 12

cars, 5 of which are defective. If one car is
selected at random, find the probability it
is not defective.

Solution:
P(defective) = 5/12
P(not defective) = 1 - 5/12 = 7/12 = 0.583
Larson/Farber Ch. 3 7
 Conditional Probability
The probability an event B will occur, given (on
the condition) that another event A has occurred.

We write this as P(B|A) and say “probability

of B, given A”.

 Two cars are selected from a production line of

12 cars where 5 are defective. What is the
probability the 2nd car is defective, given the first
car was defective?

Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q
Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q QQ

Given a defective car has been selected, the

conditional sample space: 4 defective out of 11.
So, P(B|A) = 4/11 8
 Conditional Probability

 Two dice are rolled, find the probability

the second die is a 4, given the first was a 4.

Original sample space: {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

Given the first die was a 4, the conditional

sample space is : {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

The conditional probability, P(B|A) = 1/6

9
 Independent Events

Two events A and B are independent if

the probability of the occurrence of
event B is not affected by the occurrence
(or non-occurrence) of event A.
A= Being female A= First child is a boy
B=Having type O blood B= Second child is a boy

Two events that are not independent are

dependent.
A= taking an aspirin each day A= being a female
B= having a heart attack B= being under 64” tall

10
 Independent Events
If events A and B are independent,
then P(B|A) = P(B)

Conditional Probability
Probability

 12 cars are on a production line where 5 are

defective and 2 cars are selected at random.
A= first car is defective
B= second car is defective.
The probability of getting a defective car for the
second car depends on whether the first was
defective. The events are dependent.

 Two dice are rolled. A= first is a 4 and B =

second is a 4 P(B)= 1/6 and P(B|A) = 1/6. The events
are independent.
11
 Contingency Table
The following is the result of a market research poll. A sample
of adults was asked if they liked a new juice.
Omaha Seattle Miami Total

Yes 100 150 150 400

No 125 130 95 350

Undecided 75 170 5 250

Total 300 450 250 1000

1. P(Yes) 5. P(Not Seattle)

2. P(Seattle) 6. P(Seattle, given yes)

3. P(Miami) 7. P(Yes, given Seattle)

4. P(No, given Miami) 8. P(Miami, given Omaha)

Are events A= Seattle and B= Yes independent events?
Are events A = Miami and B = Omaha independent events? 12
 Solutions

Omaha Seattle Miami Total

Yes 100 150 150 400

No 125 130 95 350

Undecided 75 170 5 250

Total 300 450 250 1000

1. P(Yes) = 400 / 1000 = 0.4

2. P(Seattle) = 450 / 1000 = 0.45

3. P(Miami) =250 / 1000 = 0.25

4. P(No, given Miami) = 95 / 250 = 0.38

Answers: 1) 0.4 2) 0.45 3) 0.25 4) 0.38

13
 Solutions

Omaha Seattle Miami Total

Yes 100 150 150 400

No 125 130 95 350

Undecided 75 170 5 250

Total 300 450 250 1000

5. P(Not Seattle) = 1 - 450 / 1000 = 0.55

6. P(Seattle, given yes) = 150 / 400 = 0.375

7. P(Yes, given Seattle) =150 / 450 = 0.333

8. P(Miami, given Omaha) = 0 / 250 = 0

Answers: 5) 0.55 6) 0.375 7) 0.333 8) 0

14
 Solutions

Omaha Seattle Miami Total

Yes 100 150 150 400

No 125 130 95 350

Undecided 75 170 5 250

Total 300 450 250 1000

Are events A= Seattle and B= Yes independent events?

If events are independent P(B|A) = P(B)

P(Yes|Seattle) = 150/450 = 0.333 P(Yes) = 0.4
Since 0.333  0.4 the events are NOT independent.
Are events A = Miami and B = Omaha independent events?
If events are independent P(B|A) = P(B)
P(Omaha|Miami) = 0 P(Omaha) = 0.3

Since 0  0.3 the events are NOT independent. 15

 Multiplication Rule
To find the probability that two events, A and B
will occur in sequence, multiply the probability
A occurs by the conditional probability B
occurs, given A has occurred.

P( A and B) = P(A) × P(B|A)

 Two cars are selected from a production line of 12
where 5 are defective. Find the probability both cars
are defective.
Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q
Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q QQ
A = first car is defective B = second car is defective.

P(A) = 5/12 P(B|A) = 4/11

P(A and B) = 5/12 × 4/11 = 5/33= 0.121

16
 Multiplication Rule
 Two dice are rolled. Find the probability both are 4’s.

A= first die is a 4 and B= second die is a 4.

P(A) = 1/6 P(B|A) = 1/6

P(A and B) = 1/6 × 1/6 = 1/36 = 0.028

When two events A and B are

independent, then
P (A and B) = P(A) × P(B)
Note for independent events P(B) and P(B|A) are the same.

Larson/Farber Ch. 3 17
 Mutually Exclusive Events
Two events, A and B are mutually
exclusive, if they cannot occur in the
same trial.

A= A person is under 25
B= A person is running for the U.S. Senate

A = A person was born in Philadelphia

B = A person was born in Houston

Mutually exclusive
A B
P(A and B) = 0

18
When event A occurs it excludes event B in the same trial.
 Non-Mutually Exclusive Events

If two events can occur in the same trial,

they are non-mutually exclusive.

A = A person is under 25
B = A person is a lawyer

A = A person was born in Philadelphia

B = A person watches 20/20 on TV.

A and B

Non-mutually exclusive
A B
P(A and B)  0

19
 The Addition Rule
The probability that one or the other of two events will
occur is P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)


 A card is drawn from a deck.

Find the probability it is a king or it is red.
A= the card is a king B = the card is red.

P(A) = 4/52 and P(B) = 26/52 but P( A and B) = 2/52

P(A or B) = 4/52 + 26/52 - 2/52 = 28/52 = 0.538

 A card is drawn from a deck.

Find the probability the card is a king or a 10.
A = the card is a king and B = the card is a 10.

P(A) = 4/52 and P(B) = 4/52 and P( A and B) = 0/52

P(A or B) = 4/52 + 4/52 - 0/52 = 8/52 = 0.054

When events are mutually exclusive, P(A or B) = P(A) +P(B)

Larson/Farber Ch. 3 20
 Contingency Table
The following is the result of a market
research poll for sample of adults were
asked if they liked a new juice.
Omaha Seattle Miami Total

Yes 100 150 150 400

No 125 130 95 350

Undeci 75 170 5 250

ded
Total 300 450 250 1000

1. P(Miami and Yes) 4. P(Miami or Yes)

2. P(Omaha and No) 5. P(Omaha or No)

3. P(Miami and Seattle) 6. P(Miami or Seattle)

Are events Miami and No mutually exclusive?

Are events Miami and Seattle mutually exclusive?
21
 Contingency Table
The following is the result of a market
research poll for sample of adults were
asked if they liked a new juice.
Omaha Seattle Miami Total

Yes 100 150 150 400

No 125 130 95 350

Undeci 75 170 5 250

ded
Total 300 450 250 1000

1. P(Miami and Yes) = 250/1000 * 150/250 = 150/1000

=0.15

2. P(Omaha and No) = 300/1000 * 125/300 = 125/1000

=0.125

3. P(Miami and Seattle)= 0

Are events Miami and Yes mutually exclusive?
No since P(Miami and Yes) 0.
Are events Miami and Seattle mutually exclusive? 22

Ans. 1) 0.15 2) 0.125 3) 0 Yes since P(Miami and No) = 0.

 Contingency Table
The following is the result of a market
research poll for sample of adults were
asked if they liked a new juice.
Omaha Seattle Miami Total

Yes 100 150 150 400

No 125 130 95 350

Undeci 75 170 5 250

ded
Total 300 450 250 1000

4. P(Miami or Yes) 250/100 + 400/1000 - 150/1000

=500/1000 = 0.5
5. P(Omaha or No) 300/1000 + 350/1000 - 125/1000
=425/1000 = 0.425
6. P(Miami or Seattle) 250/1000 + 450/1000 - 0/1000
=700/1000 = 0.7

23

Answers: 4) 0.5 5) 0.425 6) 0.7

 Summary
For complementary events
P(E') = 1 - P(E)
Subtract the probability of the event from one.

The probability both of two events occur

P(A and B) = P(A) *P(B|A)
Multiply the probability of the first event
times the conditional probability the second
event occurs, given the first occurred.
Probability at least one of two events occur
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)
Add the two simple probabilities but don’t
forget to subtract the probability of both
occurring. This prevents double counting.
Larson/Farber Ch. 3 24
 Fundamental Counting Principle

If one event can occur m ways and a second event can

occur n ways, the number of ways the two events can
occur in sequence is m*n. This rule can be extended
for any number of events occurring in a sequence.

 If a meal consists of 2 choices of soup, 3 main dishes an

d 2 desserts, how many different meals can be selected?
Dessert 1
Soup Main
2
3
4
5
6
7
Start
8
9
10
11
12

2 * 3 * 2 = 12 meals
Larson/Farber Ch. 3 25
 Permutations
A permutation is an ordered arrangement

The number of permutations for n objects is n!

n! = n*(n-1)*(n-2)…..3*2*1

The number of permutations of n objects taken r at a time is

n!
n Pr 
(n  r )!
 You are required to read 5 books from a list of 8.
In how many different orders can you do so.

8! 8  7  6  5  4  3  2 1
8 P5    6720
(8  5)! 3  2 1
You have 6720 permutations of 8 books reading 5.

Larson/Farber Ch. 3 26
 Combinations
A combination is an selection or r objects
from a group of n objects.

The number of combinations of n objects taken r at a time is

n!
n Cr 
(n  r )! r!

 You are required to read 5 books from a list of

8. In how many different ways can you choose the
books if order does not matter.
8! 8  7  6  5  4  3  2 1
8 C5    56
(8  5)!5! 3  2 1 5  4  3  2 1
There are 56 combinations of 8 objects taking 5.

Larson/Farber Ch. 3 27
 Permutations of 4 objects taking 2

28

Each of the 12 groups represents a permutation.

 Combinations of 4 objects taking 2

29

Each of the6 groups represents a combination