RSHH Qam12 ch03

3
Decision
Analysis
To accompany
Quantitative Analysis for Management, Twelfth Edition,
by Render, Stair, Hanna and Hale
Power Point slides created by Jeff Heyl Copyright ©2015 Pearson Education, Inc.
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
After completing this chapter, students will be able to:
1. List the steps of the decision-making process.
2. Describe the types of decision-making environments.
3. Make decisions under uncertainty.
4. Use probability values to make decisions under risk.
5. Develop accurate and useful decision trees.
6. Revise probabilities using Bayesian analysis.
7. Use computers to solve basic decision-making
problems.
8. Understand the importance and use of utility theory in
decision making.
Copyright ©2015 Pearson Education, Inc. 3–2

CHAPTER OUTLINE
3.1 Introduction
3.2 The Six Steps in Decision Making
3.3 Types of Decision-Making Environments
3.4 Decision Making Under Uncertainty
3.5 Decision Making Under Risk
3.6 A Minimization Example
3.7 Using Software for Payoff Table Problems
3.8 Decision Trees
3.9 How Probability Values Are Estimated by Bayesian
Analysis
3.10 Utility Theory
Introduction
• What is involved in making a good decision?
• Decision theory is an analytic and systematic
approach to the study of decision making
• A good decision is one that is based on logic,
considers all available data and possible
alternatives, and applies a quantitative
approach

The Six Steps in
Decision Making
1. Clearly define the problem at hand
2. List the possible alternatives
3. Identify the possible outcomes or states of
nature
4. List the payoff (typically profit) of each
combination of alternatives and outcomes
5. Select one of the mathematical decision
theory models
6. Apply the model and make your decision

Thompson Lumber Company
Step 1 – Define the problem
• Consider expanding by manufacturing
and marketing a new product – backyard
storage sheds
Step 2 – List alternatives
• Construct a large new plant
• Construct a small new plant
• Do not develop the new product line
Step 3 – Identify possible outcomes, states of
nature
• The market could be favorable or
unfavorable

Step 4 – List the payoffs

• Identify conditional values for the profits
for large plant, small plant, and no
development for the two possible market
conditions
Step 5 – Select the decision model
• Depends on the environment and
amount of risk and uncertainty
Step 6 – Apply the model to the data

TABLE 3.1 – Conditional Values
STATE OF NATURE
FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE
ALTERNATIVE MARKET ($) MARKET ($)
Construct a large plant 200,000 –180,000
Construct a small plant 100,000 –20,000
Do nothing 0 0

Types of Decision-Making
Environments
• Decision making under certainty
– The decision maker knows with certainty the
consequences of every alternative or decision
choice
• Decision making under uncertainty
– The decision maker does not know the
probabilities of the various outcomes
• Decision making under risk
– The decision maker knows the probabilities of the
various outcomes

Decision Making Under
Uncertainty
• Criteria for making decisions under
uncertainty
1. Maximax (optimistic)
2. Maximin (pessimistic)
3. Criterion of realism (Hurwicz)
4. Equally likely (Laplace)
5. Minimax regret
Copyright ©2015 Pearson Education, Inc. 3 – 10

Optimistic
• Used to find the alternative that maximizes
the maximum payoff – maximax criterion
– Locate the maximum payoff for each alternative
– Select the alternative with the maximum number
TABLE 3.2 – Thompson’s Maximax Decision
STATE OF NATURE
FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE MAXIMUM IN
ALTERNATIVE MARKET ($) MARKET ($) A ROW ($)
Construct a large plant 200,000 –180,000 200,000
Construct a small plant 100,000 –20,000 100,000
Maximax
Do nothing 0 0 0

Pessimistic
• Used to find the alternative that maximizes
the minimum payoff – maximin criterion
– Locate the minimum payoff for each alternative
– Select the alternative with the maximum number
TABLE 3.3 – Thompson’s Maximin Decision
STATE OF NATURE
FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE MINIMUM IN

Construct a large plant 200,000 –180,000 –180,000
Construct a small plant 100,000 –20,000 –20,000
Do nothing 0 0 0
Maximin
Criterion of Realism (Hurwicz)
• Often called weighted average
– Compromise between optimism and pessimism
– Select a coefficient of realism , with 0 ≤  ≤ 1
 = 1 is perfectly optimistic
 = 0 is perfectly pessimistic
– Compute the weighted averages for each
alternative
– Select the alternative with the highest value
Weighted average = (best in row)

+ (1 – )(worst in row)

Criterion of Realism (Hurwicz)
For the large plant alternative using  = 0.8
(0.8)(200,000) + (1 – 0.8)(–180,000) = 124,000
For the small plant alternative using  = 0.8
(0.8)(100,000) + (1 – 0.8)(–20,000) = 76,000
TABLE 3.4 – Thompson’s Criterion of Realism Decision
STATE OF NATURE
CRITERION
FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE OF REALISM
ALTERNATIVE MARKET ($) MARKET ($) ( = 0.8) $
Realism
Do nothing 0 0 0

Equally Likely (Laplace)
• Considers all the payoffs for each alternative
– Find the average payoff for each alternative
– Select the alternative with the highest average
TABLE 3.5 – Thompson’s Equally Likely Decision
STATE OF NATURE
FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE ROW
ALTERNATIVE MARKET ($) MARKET ($) AVERAGE ($)

Equally likely
Do nothing 0 0 0

Minimax Regret
• Based on opportunity loss or regret
– The difference between the optimal profit and
actual payoff for a decision
1. Create an opportunity loss table by determining
the opportunity loss from not choosing the best
alternative
2. Calculate opportunity loss by subtracting each
payoff in the column from the best payoff in the
column
3. Find the maximum opportunity loss for each
alternative and pick the alternative with the
minimum number

Minimax Regret
TABLE 3.6 – Determining Opportunity Losses for Thompson Lumber
STATE OF NATURE
MARKET MARKET
($) ($)
200,000 – 200,000 0 – (–180,000)
200,000 – 100,000 0 – (–20,000)
200,000 – 0 0–0

Minimax Regret
TABLE 3.7 – Opportunity Loss Table for Thompson Lumber
STATE OF NATURE
ALTERNATIVE MARKET ($) MARKET ($)
Construct a large plant 0 180,000
Construct a small plant 100,000 20,000
Do nothing 200,000 0

Minimax Regret
TABLE 3.8 – Thompson’s Minimax Decision Using Opportunity Loss
STATE OF NATURE
FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE MAXIMUM IN
Construct a large
0 180,000 180,000
plant
Construct a small
100,000 20,000 100,000
plant
Minimax
Do nothing 200,000 0 200,000

Decision Making Under Risk
• When there are several possible states of
nature and the probabilities associated with
each possible state are known
– Most popular method – choose the alternative with
the highest expected monetary value (EMV)
EMV(alternative) = å X i P(X i )
where
Xi = payoff for the alternative in state of nature i
P(Xi) = probability of achieving payoff Xi (i.e., probability of state of nature i)
∑ = summation symbol

Decision Making Under Risk
• Expanding the equation
EMV (alternative i) = (payoff of first state of nature)

x (probability of first state of nature)
+ (payoff of second state of nature)
x (probability of second state of nature)
+ … + (payoff of last state of nature)
x (probability of last state of nature)

EMV for Thompson Lumber
• Each market outcome has a probability of
occurrence of 0.50
• Which alternative would give the highest
EMV?
EMV (large plant) = ($200,000)(0.5) + (–$180,000)(0.5)

= $10,000
EMV (small plant) = ($100,000)(0.5) + (–$20,000)(0.5)
= $40,000
EMV (do nothing) = ($0)(0.5) + ($0)(0.5)
= $0
EMV for Thompson Lumber
TABLE 3.9 – Decision Table with Probabilities and EMVs
STATE OF NATURE
ALTERNATIVE MARKET ($) MARKET ($) EMV ($)
Do nothing 0 0 0
Probabilities 0.50 0.50 Best EMV

Expected Value of Perfect
Information (EVPI)
• EVPI places an upper bound on what you
should pay for additional information
• EVwPI is the long run average return if we
have perfect information before a decision is
made
EVwPI = ∑(best payoff in state of nature i)

(probability of state of nature i)

Information (EVPI)
• Expanded EVwPI becomes
EVwPI = (best payoff for first state of nature)
x (probability of first state of nature)
+ (best payoff for second state of nature)
x (probability of second state of nature)
+ … + (best payoff for last state of nature)
x (probability of last state of nature)
• And
EVPI = EVwPI – Best EMV

Information (EVPI)
• Scientific Marketing, Inc. offers analysis that
will provide certainty about market conditions
(favorable)
• Additional information will cost $65,000
• Should Thompson Lumber purchase the
information?

Information (EVPI)
TABLE 3.10 – Decision Table with Perfect Information
STATE OF NATURE
ALTERNATIVE MARKET ($) MARKET ($) EMV ($)
Construct a large plant 200,000 -180,000 10,000
Construct a small plant 100,000 -20,000 40,000
Do nothing 0 0 0
With perfect
200,000 0 100,000
information
EVwPI
Probabilities 0.5 0.5

Information (EVPI)
• The maximum EMV without additional
information is $40,000
– Therefore
EVPI = EVwPI – Maximum EMV

= $100,000 - $40,000
= $60,000
So the maximum Thompson should pay

for the additional information is $60,000

Information (EVPI)
• The maximum EMV without additional
information is $40,000
Thompson should not pay
– Therefore $65,000 for this information
EVPI = EVwPI – Maximum EMV

= $100,000 - $40,000
= $60,000
So the maximum Thompson should pay

for the additional information is $60,000

Expected Opportunity Loss
• Expected opportunity loss (EOL) is the cost of
not picking the best solution
– Construct an opportunity loss table
– For each alternative, multiply the opportunity loss
by the probability of that loss for each possible
outcome and add these together
– Minimum EOL will always result in the same
decision as maximum EMV
– Minimum EOL will always equal EVPI

Expected Opportunity Loss
EOL (large plant) = (0.50)($0) + (0.50)($180,000) = $90,000
EOL (small plant) = (0.50)($100,000) + (0.50)($20,000) = $60,000
EOL (do nothing) = (0.50)($200,000) + (0.50)($0) = $100,000
TABLE 3.11 – EOL Table for Thompson Lumber
STATE OF NATURE
ALTERNATIVE MARKET ($) MARKET ($) EOL
Construct a large plant 0 180,000 90,000
Construct a small plant 100,000 20,000 60,000
Do nothing 200,000 0 100,000
Best EOL
Probabilities 0.5 0.5

Sensitivity Analysis
EMV(large plant) = $200,000P – $180,000)(1 – P)
= $200,000P – $180,000 +
$180,000P
= $380,000P – $180,000
EMV(small plant) = $100,000P – $20,000)(1 – P)

= $100,000P – $20,000 + $20,000P
= $120,000P – $20,000
EMV(do nothing) = $0P + 0(1 – P)

= $0

FIGURE 3.1
EMV Values
$300,000
$200,000 EMV (large plant)

Point 2
$100,000 EMV (small plant)

Point 1
0 EMV (do nothing)

.167 .615 1
–$100,000 Values of P
–$200,000

Point 1: EMV(do nothing) = EMV(small plant)
20,000
0 = $120,000P - $20,000 P= = 0.167
120,000
Point 2: EMV(small plant) = EMV(large plant)
$120,000P - $20,000 = $380,000P - $180,000

160,000
P= = 0.615
260,000

RANGE OF
BEST ALTERNATIVE P VALUES
Do nothing Less than 0.167
FIGURE 3.1 Construct a small plant 0.167 – 0.615
EMV Values Construct a large plant Greater than 0.615

$300,000
$200,000 Point 2 EMV (large plant)
$100,000 Point 1
EMV (small plant)
0 EMV (do nothing)
.167 .615 1
–$100,000
Values of P
–$200,000

A Minimization Example
• Three year lease for a copy machine
– Which machine should be selected?
TABLE 3.12 – Payoff Table
10,000 COPIES 20,000 COPIES 30,000 COPIES

PER MONTH PER MONTH PER MONTH
Machine A 950 1,050 1,150
Machine B 850 1,100 1,350
Machine C 700 1,000 1,300

• Three year lease for a copy machine
– Which machine should be selected?
TABLE 3.13 – Best and Worst Payoffs
10,000 20,000 30,000

BEST WORST
COPIES COPIES COPIES
PAYOFF PAYOFF
PER PER PER
(MINIMUM) (MAXIMUM)
MONTH MONTH MONTH
Machine A 950 1,050 1,150 950 1,150
Machine B 850 1,100 1,350 850 1,350
Machine C 700 1,000 1,300 700 1,300

• Using Hurwicz criteria with 70% coefficient
Weighted average = 0.7(best payoff)

+ (1 – 0.7)(worst payoff)
For each machine

Machine A: 0.7(950) + 0.3(1,150) = 1,010
Machine B: 0.7(850) + 0.3(1,350) = 1,000
Machine C: 0.7(700) + 0.3(1,300) = 880

• For equally likely criteria
For each machine

Machine A: (950 + 1,050 + 1,150)/3 = 1,050
Machine B: (850 + 1,100 + 1,350)/3 = 1,100
Machine C: (700 + 1,000 + 1,300)/3 = 1,000

• For EMV criteria
USAGE PROBABILITY
10,000 0.40
20,000 0.30
30,000 0.30

• For EMV criteria
TABLE 3.14 – Expected Monetary Values and Expected Value with Perfect Information
10,000 20,000 30,000

EMV
PER PER PER
MONTH MONTH MONTH
Machine A 950 1,050 1,150 1,040
Machine B 850 1,100 1,350 1,075
Machine C 700 1,000 1,300 970
With perfect information 700 1,000 1,150 925
Probability 0.4 0.3 0.3

• For EVPI
TABLE 3.15 – Expected Monetary Values and Expected Value with Perfect Information
EVwPI = $925
10,000 20,000 30,000
Best EMV without perfect
COPIESinformation
COPIES = $970
COPIES
EMV
PER
EVPI = 970 –PER PER
925 = $45
MONTH MONTH MONTH
Machine A 950 1,050 1,150 1,040
Machine B 850 1,100 1,350 1,075
Machine C 700 1,000 1,300 970
With perfect information 700 1,000 1,150 925

• Opportunity loss criteria
TABLE 3.15 – Opportunity Loss Table
10,000 20,000 30,000

PER PER PER
MONTH MONTH MONTH MAXIMUM EOL
Machine A 250 50 0 250 115
Machine B 150 100 200 200 150
Machine C 0 0 150 150 45

Using Software
PROGRAM 3.1A – QM for Windows Input

Using Software
PROGRAM 3.1B – QM for Windows Output

Using Excel
PROGRAM 3.2A – Excel QM Results

Using Excel
PROGRAM 3.2B – Excel QM Formulas

Decision Trees
• Any problem that can be presented in a
decision table can be graphically represented
in a decision tree
– Most beneficial when a sequence of decisions
must be made
– All decision trees contain decision points/nodes
and state-of-nature points/nodes
– At decision nodes one of several alternatives may
be chosen
– At state-of-nature nodes one state of nature will
occur

Five Steps of
Decision Tree Analysis
1. Define the problem
2. Structure or draw the decision tree
3. Assign probabilities to the states of nature
4. Estimate payoffs for each possible
combination of alternatives and states of
nature
5. Solve the problem by computing expected
monetary values (EMVs) for each state of
nature node

Structure of Decision Trees
• Trees start from left to right
• Trees represent decisions and outcomes in
sequential order
• Squares represent decision nodes
• Circles represent states of nature nodes
• Lines or branches connect the decisions nodes and
the states of nature

Thompson’s Decision Tree
FIGURE 3.2
A State-of-Nature Node
Favorable Market
A Decision Node
1
Unfavorable Market
Favorable Market
Construct
2
Small Plant Unfavorable Market

Thompson’s Decision Tree
FIGURE 3.3
EMV for Node 1 = (0.5)($200,000) + (0.5)(–$180,000)
= $10,000 Payoffs
Favorable Market (0.5)
$200,000
Alternative with best
EMV is selected 1
Unfavorable Market (0.5)
–$180,000

$100,000
Construct
2
Small Plant Unfavorable Market (0.5)
–$20,000
EMV for Node 2 = (0.5)($100,000)

= $40,000 + (0.5)(–$20,000)
$0
Thompson’s Complex
FIGURE 3.4 Decision Tree
First Decision Second Decision Payoffs
Point Point
$190,000
2 Unfavorable Market (0.22)
–$190,000
Small $90,000
Plant –$30,000
No Plant
–$10,000
1 Favorable Market (0.27)
$190,000
–$190,000
Small $90,000
Plant
–$30,000
No Plant
–$10,000

$200,000
–$180,000
Small $100,000
Plant –$20,000
No Plant
$0
Decision Tree
1. Given favorable survey results
EMV(node 2) = EMV(large plant | positive survey)

= (0.78)($190,000) + (0.22)(– $190,000) = $106,400
EMV(node 3) = EMV(small plant | positive survey)
= (0.78)($90,000) + (0.22)(– $30,000) = $63,600
EMV for no plant = – $10,000

Decision Tree
2. Given negative survey results
EMV(node 4) = EMV(large plant | negative survey)

= (0.27)($190,000) + (0.73)(– $190,000) = – $87,400
EMV(node 5) = EMV(small plant | negative survey)
= (0.27)($90,000) + (0.73)(– $30,000) = $2,400
EMV for no plant = – $10,000

The best choice is to seek Tree
Decision marketing information
3. Expected value of the market survey

EMV(node 1) = EMV(conduct survey)
= (0.45)($106,400) + (0.55)($2,400)
= $47,880 + $1,320 = $49,200
4. Expected value no market survey
EMV(node 6) = EMV(large plant)

= (0.50)($200,000) + (0.50)(– $180,000) = $10,000
EMV(node 7) = EMV(small plant)
= (0.50)($100,000) + (0.50)(– $20,000) = $40,000
EMV for no plant = $0

FIGURE 3.5 Decision Tree
First Decision Second Decision Payoffs
Point Point
$106,400 Favorable Market (0.78)
$190,000
–$190,000
$106,400
Small $90,000
Plant –$30,000
No Plant
–$10,000
1 –$87,400 Favorable Market (0.27)
$190,000
–$190,000
$2,400
$2,400
Small $90,000
Plant
–$30,000
No Plant
–$10,000
$49,200

$200,000
–$180,000
$40,000

Small $100,000
Plant –$20,000
No Plant
$0
Expected Value of
Sample Information
• Thompson wants to know the actual value of
doing the survey
Expected value Expected value of best

EVSI = with sample – decision without sample
information information
= (EV with SI + cost) – (EV without SI)
EVSI = ($49,200 + $10,000) – $40,000 = $19,200

Efficiency of Sample Information
• Possibly many types of sample information
available
• Different sources can be evaluated
EVSI 32% as
Efficiency of sampleMarket survey
information = is only
100%
efficient as perfect
EVPIinformation
• For Thompson
19,200
Efficiency of sample information = 100% = 32%
60,000

• How sensitive are the decisions to changes in
the probabilities?
• How sensitive is our decision to the probability
of a favorable survey result?
• If the probability of a favorable result (p = .45)
where to change, would we make the same
decision?
• How much could it change before we would
make a different decision?

p = probability
If pof
<a favorable
0.36, do notsurvey result
conduct the survey
(1 – p) = probability of a negative
If p > 0.36, conduct survey result
the survey
EMV(node 1) = ($106,400)p +($2,400)(1 – p)
= $104,000p + $2,400
We are indifferent when the EMV of node 1 is the

same as the EMV of not conducting the survey
$104,000p + $2,400 = $40,000
$104,000p = $37,600
p = $37,600/$104,000 = 0.36

Bayesian Analysis
• Many ways of getting probability data
– Management’s experience and intuition
– Historical data
– Computed from other data using Bayes’ theorem
• Bayes’ theorem incorporates initial estimates
and information about the accuracy of the
sources
• Allows the revision of initial estimates based
on new information

Calculating Revised Probabilities
• Four conditional probabilities for Thompson
Lumber
P(favorable market(FM) | survey results positive) = 0.78
P(unfavorable market(UM) | survey results positive) = 0.22
P(favorable market(FM) | survey results negative) = 0.27
P(unfavorable market(UM) | survey results negative) = 0.73
• Prior probabilities
P(FM) = 0.50
P(UM) = 0.50

TABLE 3.16 – Market Survey Reliability
STATE OF NATURE
RESULT OF FAVORABLE MARKET UNFAVORABLE MARKET
SURVEY (FM) (UM)
Positive (predicts P (survey positive | FM) P (survey positive | UM)

favorable market
for product) = 0.70 = 0.20
Negative (predicts P (survey negative | FM) P (survey negative | UM)

unfavorable market
for product) = 0.30 = 0.80

• Calculating posterior probabilities
P(B | A) ´ P(A)
P(A | B) =
P(B | A) ´ P(A) + P(B | A¢) ´ P( A¢)
where
A, B = any two events
A’ = complement of A
A = favorable market
B = positive survey

• P(FM | survey positive)
P(survey positive | FM)P(FM)
=
P(survey positive | FM)P(FM) + P(survey positive | UM)P(UM)
(0.70)(0.50) 0.35
= = = 0.78
(0.70)(0.50)+(0.20)(0.50) 0.45
• P(UM | survey positive)

P(survey positive | UM)P(UM)
=
P(survey positive | UM)P(UM) + P(survey positive | FM)P(FM)
(0.20)(0.50) 0.10
= = = 0.22
(0.20)(0.50)+(0.70)(0.50) 0.45

TABLE 3.17 – Probability Revisions Given a Positive Survey
POSTERIOR PROBABILITY
CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITY P(STATE OF
P(SURVEY NATURE |
STATE OF POSITIVE | STATE PRIOR JOINT SURVEY
NATURE OF NATURE) PROBABILITY PROBABILITY POSITIVE)
FM 0.70 X 0.50 = 0.35 0.35/0.45 = 0.78
UM 0.20 X 0.50 = 0.10 0.10/0.45 = 0.22
P(survey results positive) = 0.45 1.00

• P(FM | survey negative)
P(survey negative | FM)P(FM)
=
P(survey negative | FM)P(FM) + P(survey negative | UM)P(UM)
(0.30)(0.50) 0.15
= = = 0.27
(0.30)(0.50)+(0.80)(0.50) 0.55
• P(UM | survey negative)
P(survey negative | UM)P(UM)

=
P(survey negative | UM)P(UM) + P(survey negative | FM)P(FM)
(0.80)(0.50) 0.40
= = = 0.73
(0.80)(0.50)+(0.30)(0.50) 0.55

TABLE 3.18 – Probability Revisions Given a Negative Survey
POSTERIOR PROBABILITY
CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITY P(STATE OF
P(SURVEY NATURE |
STATE OF NEGATIVE | STATE PRIOR JOINT SURVEY
NATURE OF NATURE) PROBABILITY PROBABILITY NEGATIVE)
FM 0.30 X 0.50 = 0.15 0.15/0.55 = 0.27
UM 0.80 X 0.50 = 0.40 0.40/0.55 = 0.73
P(survey results positive) = 0.55 1.00

Using Excel
PROGRAM 3.3A – Excel Results

Using Excel
PROGRAM 3.3B – Excel Formulas

Potential Problems Using
Survey Results
• We can not always get the necessary data for
analysis
• Survey results may be based on cases where
an action was taken
• Conditional probability information may not be
as accurate as we would like

Utility Theory
• Monetary value is not always a true indicator
of the overall value of the result of a decision
• The overall value of a decision is called utility
• Economists assume that rational people make
decisions to maximize their utility

Utility Theory
FIGURE 3.6 – Decision Tree for the Lottery Ticket
$2,000,000
Accept
Offer
$0
Heads
Reject (0.5)
Offer
Tails
(0.5)
EMV = $2,500,000
$5,000,000

Utility Theory
• Utility assessment assigns the worst
outcome a utility of 0 and the best outcome a
utility of 1
• A standard gamble is used to determine
utility values
• When you are indifferent, your utility values
are equal

Utility Theory
FIGURE 3.7 – Standard Gamble for Utility Assessment
(p)
Best Outcome
Utility = 1
(1 – p) Worst Outcome
Utility = 0
Other Outcome
Utility = ?

Utility Theory
Expected utility of alternative 2
= Expected utility of alternative 1
Utility of other outcome
= (p)(utility of best outcome, which is 1)
+ (1 – p)(utility of the worst outcome,
which is 0)
Utility of other outcome
= (p)(1) + (1 – p)(0) = p

Investment Example
• Construct a utility curve revealing preference
for money between $0 and $10,000
• A utility curve plots the utility value versus
the monetary value
– An investment in a bank will result in $5,000
– An investment in real estate will result in $0 or
$10,000
– Unless there is an 80% chance of getting $10,000
from the real estate deal, prefer to have her money
in the bank
– If p = 0.80, Jane is indifferent between the bank or
the real estate investment

Investment Example
Figure 3.8 – Utility of $5,000
p = 0.80 $10,000
U($10,000) = 1.0
(1 – p) = 0.20 $0
U($0.00) = 0.0
$5,000
U($5,000) = p = 0.80
Utility for $5,000 = U($5,000) = pU($10,000) + (1 – p)U($0)

= (0.8)(1) + (0.2)(0) = 0.8
Investment Example
• Assess other utility values
Utility for $7,000 = 0.90
Utility for $3,000 = 0.50
• Use the three different dollar amounts and

assess utilities

Utility Curve
FIGURE 3.9 – Utility Curve
1.0 –
U ($10,000) = 1.0
0.9 –
U ($7,000) = 0.90
0.8 –
U ($5,000) = 0.80
0.7 –
0.6 –
U ($3,000) = 0.50
Utility
0.5 –
0.4 –
0.3 –
0.2 –
0.1 –
U ($0) = 0
| | | | | | | | | | |
$0 $1,000 $3,000 $5,000 $7,000 $10,000
Monetary Value
Utility Curve
• Typical of a risk avoider
– Less utility from greater risk
– Avoids situations where high losses might occur
– As monetary value increases, utility curve
increases at a slower rate
• A risk seeker gets more utility from greater
risk
– As monetary value increases, the utility curve
increases at a faster rate
• Risk indifferent gives a linear utility curve

Preferences for Risk
FIGURE 3.10
Risk
Avoider
Utility
Risk
Seeker
Monetary Outcome
Utility as a
Decision-Making Criteria
• Once a utility curve has been developed it can
be used in making decisions
• Replaces monetary outcomes with utility
values
• Expected utility is computed instead of the
EMV

Utility as a
• Mark Simkin loves to gamble
– A game tossing thumbtacks in the air
– If the thumbtack lands point up, Mark wins $10,000
– If the thumbtack lands point down, Mark loses
$10,000
– Mark believes that there is a 45% chance the
thumbtack will land point up
• Should Mark play the game (alternative 1)?

Utility as a
FIGURE 3.11 – Decision Facing Mark Simkin
Tack Lands Point

Up (0.45)
$10,000
Tack Lands
Point Down (0.55)
–$10,000
Mark Does Not Play the Game

$0
Utility as a
Step 1– Define Mark’s utilities
U(–$10,000) = 0.05 1.00 –
U($0) = 0.15
U($10,000) = 0.30 0.75 –
Utility 0.50 –
0.30 –
0.25 –
0.15 –
0.05 –
0 –| | | | |
FIGURE 3.12 –$20,000 –$10,000 $0 $10,000 $20,000
Monetary Outcome
Utility as a
Step 2 – Replace monetary values with utility
values
E(alternative 1: play the game) = (0.45)(0.30) + (0.55)(0.05)
= 0.135 + 0.027 = 0.162
E(alternative 2: don’t play the game) = 0.15

Utility as a
FIGURE 3.13 – Using Expected Utilities
E = 0.162 Tack Lands Point Utility

Up (0.45)
0.30
Tack Lands
Point Down (0.55)
0.05
Don’t Play
0.15

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Copyright ©2015 Pearson Education, Inc. 3–2

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Step 4 – List the payoffs

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TABLE 3.1 – Conditional Values

Construct a small plant 100,000 –20,000

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TABLE 3.2 – Thompson’s Maximax Decision

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FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE MINIMUM IN

Weighted average = (best in row)

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TABLE 3.5 – Thompson’s Equally Likely Decision

Construct a small plant 100,000 –20,000 40,000

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200,000 – 200,000 0 – (–180,000)

200,000 – 100,000 0 – (–20,000)

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Construct a small plant 100,000 20,000

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TABLE 3.8 – Thompson’s Minimax Decision Using Opportunity Loss

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EMV (alternative i) = (payoff of first state of nature)

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EMV (large plant) = ($200,000)(0.5) + (–$180,000)(0.5)

Construct a large plant 200,000 –180,000 10,000

Construct a small plant 100,000 –20,000 40,000

Probabilities 0.50 0.50 Best EMV

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EVwPI = ∑(best payoff in state of nature i)

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Construct a large plant 200,000 -180,000 10,000

Construct a small plant 100,000 -20,000 40,000

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EVPI = EVwPI – Maximum EMV

So the maximum Thompson should pay

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EVPI = EVwPI – Maximum EMV

So the maximum Thompson should pay

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TABLE 3.11 – EOL Table for Thompson Lumber

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EMV(small plant) = $100,000P – $20,000)(1 – P)

EMV(do nothing) = $0P + 0(1 – P)

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$200,000 EMV (large plant)

$100,000 EMV (small plant)

0 EMV (do nothing)

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Point 2: EMV(small plant) = EMV(large plant)

$120,000P - $20,000 = $380,000P - $180,000

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