Professional Documents
Culture Documents
DCF Methodologies
Proceed with
Project Project Forecast Outcome
Implementation
Proposal Analysis Positive (+ NPV)
Planning
Forecast
Restructure Outcome Not
Proposal Viable (- NPV)
3-1
Expenditure Decisions
DCF Methodologies
0 1 2 3 … n
NPV = the sum of the present value of all benefits minus the
present value of costs
n
Cash Flow Benefitsi
NPV Initial Co st
i 1 ( 1 k)i
Problem:
• Initial outlay = $12,000
CF1 CF2 CF3
• After-tax cash flow benefits: NPV CF0
– Year 1 = $5,000 (1 k ) (1 k ) (1 k )
1 2 3
Problem:
• Initial outlay = $12,000
• After-tax cash flow benefits
(ATCF):
– Year 1 = $5,000
Initial cost = $12,000
– Year 2 = $5,000 Cost of Capital = 15.0%
– Year 3 = $8,000
After-tax Present
• Discount rate (k) = 15% Year Cashflow incremental CF PV Factor Value
0 Initial cost -$12,000 1 -$12,000
1 ATCF operating benefit 5,000 0.869565 $4,348
2 ATCF operating benefit 5,000 0.756144 $3,781
3 ATCF operating benefit 8,000 0.657516 $5,260
NPV = $1,389
NPV Example
A Spreadsheet Modeling Approach
Here is a spreadsheet
The NPV model
result is positive used
and the to calculate
project a $100,000
is acceptable projectthe
because that
has a 6 looks
project year life,
likeoffers equal annual
it will increase after-tax
the value cash
of the firmflow
withbenefits
these over that
life of $60,000 per annum when the relevant cost of capital is 12%.
assumptions.
Noticeletthat
Now, us at a 0%– discount
stress test the model.
rate, all We
of the
canpresent
start byvalue
setting
the discount
factors become
rate1.toAnd
0%.we (ie.work
No time
with value
absolute
to money)
dollar values.
NPV is forecast to be it’s greatest at a 0% discount rate.
ItIncreasing
is hard to imagine
the discount
a project
rate to
having
50%, risk
the that
NPVrequires
of the project
a return
offalls
moreto $9,465.
than 50%. Even at a discount rate of 50%, the
project has a positive NPV!
Somewhere
Increasing thebetween
discount50%rateand 60%,the
to 60%, theNPV
NPVofturned to $0.
the project
Remember,
falls the IRR
to -$5,960. of the
At that projectrate,
discount is that
thediscount rate that
project would
causes the
decrease theNPV to of
value bethe
equalfirmtoif$0.00
accepted.
Now we can
A discount graph
rate the resultscauses
of 55.8055% of the stress
the NPVtest. NPV
to be is on
equal to
$0. vertical
the This isaxis
the project’s
because IRR.
it is the dependent variable and
discount rate is on the horizontal.
NPV
$
$260,000
IRR = 55.8%
NPV
$
$260,000
IF the appropriate
discount rate (k) is
12%, then the NPV is
$146,684 forecast to be positive.
IRR = 55.8%
NPV
$ Even if your estimate of the
$260,000 project’s required return (RADR)
is wrong, the project’s NPV
remains positive over a wide
range of values for k (from 0% to
$146,684 55%)
IRR = 55.8%
CF t
or , i 1
CF0
(1 IRR ) t
IRR Example
This Example Will Be Used To Demonstrate Alternative Approaches to
Solve for IRR
Problem:
• Initial outlay = $12,000
• After-tax cash flow benefits:
– Year 1 = $5,000
– Year 2 = $5,000
– Year 3 = $8,000
• Cost of Capital = 15%
IRR Example
Formula-based Approach to the Solution
The only way you can use the formula is to use the iterative approach t o solving for IRR. That is, substitute different values
for IRR until the mathematic al expression becomes an equality.
IRR Example
Formula-based Approach to the Solution
The only way you can use the formula is to use the iterative approach t o solving for IRR. That is, substitute different values
for IRR until the mathematic al expression becomes an equality.
Since $12,000 $12,268.52 then we need to increase the discount rate to lower the
PV of future cash flows until they equal $12,000.
IRR Example
Formula-based Approach to the Solution
Since $12,000 $11,296 then we know the IRRis between 20% and 25%.
You can continue to substitute different values into the equation t o iterativel y
find the IRR, or you can use linear interpolat ion to ESTIMATE the approximat e value of the IRR.
IRR Example
Formula-based Approach to the Solution – Linear Interpolation
We can now estimate the IRR assuming a linear relationship between PV of benefits (which
isn’t exactly true because compound interest is a curvilinear relationship)
2. Ranking projects Higher NPV implies greater The higher IRR project may have a
contribution to firm wealth - it is lower NPV, and vice versa,
an absolute measure of wealth. depending on the appropriate
discount rate, and the size of the
3. Reinvestment rate Assumes all future cash flows are Assumes cash flows from each
assumed for future cash reinvested at the discount rate. project are reinvested at that
flows received This is appropriate because it project's IRR. This is
treats the reinvestment of all inappropriate, particularly when
future cash flows consistently, the IRR is high.
and k is the investor's opportunity
cost.
Evaluating Investment Alternatives
NPV and IRR Compared
Present
After-tax incremental Value of Cumulative
Year Cashflow Cash Flows PV Factor ATCFs Cash Flows
0 Initial cost -$100,000 1 -$100,000 -$100,000
1 ATCF operating benefit $60,000 0.90909091 $54,545 -$45,455
2 ATCF operating benefit $60,000 0.82644628 $49,587 $4,132
3 ATCF operating benefit $60,000 0.7513148 $45,079 $49,211
4 ATCF operating benefit $60,000 0.68301346 $40,981 $90,192
5 ATCF operating benefit $60,000 0.62092132 $37,255 $127,447
6 ATCF operating benefit $60,000 0.56447393 $33,868 $161,316
Payback period = 1.9 years
Discounted Payback
PV(cash inflows)
PI
PV (cash outflows)
Example:
Consider a firm that has six different capital investment proposals this year.
Each project has it’s own IRR, NPV, PI and capital cost. Each project has the
same risk as the firm as a whole.
13 - 37
Investment Opportunity Schedule (IOS)
Projects Ranked by NPV
Example:
In the absence of capital rationing the projects as ranked by NPV would be:
Example:
In the absence of capital rationing the projects as ranked by IRR would be:
Example:
In the absence of capital rationing the projects as ranked by PI would be:
Project proposal A would be unacceptable because the forecast PI is less than 1.0.
Ranking of Projects
In the Absence of Capital Rationing
Clearly, in the absence of capital rationing, all three methods choose value
maximizing projects and reject value-destroying projects.
Investment Opportunity Schedule (IOS)
Projects Selected by NPV under Capital Rationing Limit of $6 million
Example:
Under capital rationing the projects selected by NPV would be:
Example:
Under capital rationing the projects selected by IRR would be:
Example:
Under capital rationing the projects selected by PI would be: