GLOBAL WARMING

Global warming is the increase in the average measured

temperature of the Earth's near-surface air and oceans
since the mid-twentieth century, and its projected
continuation.

The average global air temperature near the Earth's

surface increased 0.74 ± 0.18 °C (1.33 ± 0.32 °F) during
the hundred years ending in 2005.The Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes "most of the
observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since
the mid-twentieth century is very likely due to the observed
increase in anthropogenic (man-made) greenhouse gas
concentrations" via an enhanced greenhouse effect.
Natural phenomena such as solar variation combined with
volcanoes probably had a small warming effect from pre-
industrial times to 1950 and a small cooling effect from
1950 onward.
 Increasing global temperature is expected to
cause sea level to rise, an increase in the
intensity of extreme weather events, and
significant changes to the amount and pattern of
precipitation. Other expected effects of global
warming include changes in agricultural yields,
modifications of trade routes, glacier retreat,
species extinctions and increases in the ranges
of disease vectors.
MELTING OF SNOW ON GLACIERS

Remaining scientific uncertainties include the amount of warming

expected in the future, and how warming and related changes will vary
from region to region around the globe. Most national governments
have signed and ratified the Kyoto Protocol aimed at reducing
greenhouse gas emissions, but there is ongoing political and public
debate worldwide regarding what, if any, action should be taken to
reduce or reverse future warming or to adapt to its expected
consequences.
CAUSES

The Earth's climate changes in response to external forcing, including variations

in its orbit round the Sun (orbital forcing), changes in solar luminosity, volcanic
eruptions, and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The detailed causes
of the recent warming remain an active field of research, but the scientific
consensus is that the increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases due to human
activity caused most of the warming observed since the start of the industrial era.
This attribution is clearest for the most recent 50 years, for which the most
detailed data are available. Some other hypotheses departing from the consensus
view have been suggested to explain most of the temperature increase. One such
hypothesis proposes that warming may be the result of variations in solar
activity.
None of the effects of forcing are instantaneous. The thermal inertia of the
Earth's oceans and slow responses of other indirect effects mean that the Earth's
current climate is not in equilibrium with the forcing imposed. Climate
commitment studies indicate that even if greenhouse gases were stabilized at
2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.5 °C (0.9 °F) would still occur.
 GREENHOUSE GASES IN THE ATMOSPHERE
It is the process by which absorption and emission of infrared radiation by atmospheric
gases warm a planet's lower atmosphere and surface.

Naturally occurring greenhouse gases have a mean warming effect of about 33 °C
(59 °F), without which Earth would be uninhabitable.On Earth, the major greenhouse
gases are water vapor, which causes about 36–70% of the greenhouse effect (not
including clouds); carbon dioxide (CO2), which causes 9–26%; methane (CH4), which
causes 4–9%; and ozone, which causes 3–7%.

Human activity since the industrial revolution has increased the concentration of various
greenhouse gases, leading to increased radiative forcing from CO2, methane,
tropospheric ozone, CFCs and nitrous oxide. Molecule for molecule, methane is a more
effective greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, but its concentration is much smaller so
that its total radiative forcing is only about a fourth of that from carbon dioxide. Some
other naturally occurring gases contribute small fractions of the greenhouse effect; one
of these, nitrous oxide (N2O), is increasing in concentration owing to human activity
such as agriculture. The atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and CH4 have increased by
31% and 149% respectively since the beginning of the industrial revolution in the mid-
1700s. These levels are considerably higher than at any time during the last 650,000
years, the period for which reliable data has been extracted from ice cores. From less
direct geological evidence it is believed that CO2 values this high were last attained 20
million years ago. Fossil fuel burning has produced approximately three-quarters of the
increase in CO2 from human activity over the past 20 years. Most of the rest is due to
land-use change, in particular deforestation.
 ATTRIBUTED AND EXPECTED EFFECTS

Although it is difficult to connect

specific weather events to global
warming, an increase in global
temperatures may in turn cause
broader changes, including
glacial retreat, Arctic shrinkage,
and worldwide sea level rise.
Changes in the amount and
pattern of precipitation may
result in flooding and drought.
There may also be changes in
the frequency and intensity of
extreme weather events. Other
effects may include changes in
agricultural yields, addition of
new trade routes, reduced
summer streamflows, species
extinctions, and increases in the
range of disease vectors.
 RELATED CLIMATIC ISSUES

A variety of issues are often raised in relation to global

warming. One is ocean acidification. Increased atmospheric
CO2 increases the amount of CO2 dissolved in the oceans.
CO2 dissolved in the ocean reacts with water to form
carbonic acid, resulting in acidification. Ocean surface pH is
estimated to have decreased from 8.25 near the beginning of
the industrial era to 8.14 by 2004, and is projected to
decrease by a further 0.14 to 0.5 units by 2100 as the ocean
absorbs more CO2. Since organisms and ecosystems are
adapted to a narrow range of pH, this raises extinction
concerns, directly driven by increased atmospheric CO2, that
could disrupt food webs and impact human societies that
depend on marine ecosystem services.
GLOBAL DIMMING
Global dimming, the gradual reduction in
the amount of global direct irradiance at
the Earth's surface, may have partially
mitigated global warming in the late 20th
century. From 1960 to 1990 human-
caused aerosols likely precipitated this
effect. Scientists have stated with
66–90% confidence that the effects of
human-caused aerosols, along with
volcanic activity, have offset some of the
global warming, and that greenhouse
gases would have resulted in more
warming than observed if not for these
dimming agents.
Ozone depletion, the steady decline in the total amount
of ozone in Earth's stratosphere, is frequently cited in
relation to global warming. Although there are areas of
linkage, the relationship between the two is not strong.