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Class Notes 12
-t … -2 -1 0 +1 +2 …
Rs.P
Rs.P - div
The price drops by Ex-
the amount of the dividend
cash dividend. Date
Taxes complicate things a bit. Empirically, the price drop
is less than the dividend and occurs within the first few
minutes of the ex-date.
M-M’s Dividend Irrelevance Theory
Value of the firm is determined by
Earning power of its assets and its Investment policy
i.e. P = f(E)
Dividend payout ratio is irrelevant
Critical assumptions
Perfect capital markets
Investors are rational
No information costs
No transaction costs
Infinitely divisible securities
No taxes
Given investment policy, not subject to change
Certainty of future investments and profits of the firm
M-M’s Theory –1
d j (t) p j (t 1) p j (t)
ρ (t)
p j (t)
p j (t) * (1 ρ (t) ) d j (t) p j (t 1)
d j (t) p j (t 1)
p j (t)
1 ρ (t)
M-M’s Theory-2
n(t) = no. of shares at the beginning of time ‘t’
m(t+1) = no. of shares issued during ‘t’
n(t+1) = no. of shares at the end of time ‘t’
m(t+1) + n(t) = n(t+1)
D(t) = Total dividend paid during ‘t’ on n(t) shares
V(t) = n(t) * p(t) = value of shares
1
p(t) (d(t) p(t 1))
(1 ρ (t) )
1
n(t) * p(t) [n(t)d(t) n(t)p(t 1)
(1 ρ (t) )
n(t) n(t 1) m(t 1)
1
V(t) [D(t) n(t 1) * p(t 1) m(t 1) * p(t 1)]
(1 ρ (t) )
1
[D(t) V(t 1) m(t 1) * p(t 1)] Apparent dividend relevance ?
(1 ρ (t) )
M-M’s Theory - 3
Assuming certainty of future investment outlays the following
derivation can be made
X(t) : Income in time “t”
I(t) : Investment in time ‘t”
Conservation of Value
Homemade Dividends
ABC’s stock price is Rs.42 stock is about to pay a Rs.2 cash dividend.
Investor owns 80 shares and prefers a Rs.3 dividend.
Investor’s homemade dividend strategy:
– Sell 2 shares ex-dividend
Rs. 2 Rs. 3
Dividend Dividend
Dividend 2 3
Current stock holdings
No. 80 80
Stock Price 42 42
Ex Div price 40 39
In our example, Investor began with a total wealth of Rs.3,360: (80 * 42)
After a Rs.3 dividend, his total wealth is still Rs.3,360: (80 * 39 (value of
holdings) + 240 (dividend)
After a Rs.2 dividend and sale of 2 ex-dividend shares, his total wealth is still
Rs.3,360: (78 * 40 (value of holdings) +160 (dividend) + 80 (sale of shares)
Irrelevance of Dividend Policy
• Tax rates on dividends and capital gains are important decision variables.
Tax on capital gains can be deferred
Taxes
In a world of personal taxes, firms
should not issue stock to pay a
Gov. dividend.
Repurchase of Stock
• Instead of declaring cash dividends, firms can rid themselves of excess cash
through buying shares of their own stock.
Initial
Liabilities Assets
Equity 1,000,000 Fixed and Other Assets 850,000
Debt Cash 150,000
1,000,000 1,000,000
Shares 100,000
Price/share 10
Stock Repurchase versus Dividend
Dividend
Cash Dividend 100,000
Liabilities Assets
Equity 900,000 Fixed and Other Assets 850,000
Debt Cash 50,000
900,000 900,000
Shares 100,000
Price/share 9
Share Repurchase
Shares Repurchased 100,000
Liabilities Assets
Equity 900,000 Fixed and Other Assets 850,000
Debt Cash 50,000
900,000 900,000
Shares 90,000
Price/share 10
Share Repurchase
• Tax benefits
Real-World Factors Favoring High Dividends
• Desire for Current Income
• Behavioral Finance
– forces investors to be disciplined.
• Dividend Signaling
– Information content of dividends
• Agency Costs
– High dividends reduce free cash flow.
The Clientele Effect
The bird-in-the-hand theory, states that dividends are relevant. Considering that
total return (k) is equal to dividend yield plus capital gains, Myron Gordon and
John Lintner (Gordon/Litner) took this equation and assumed that k would
decrease as a company's payout increased.
Gordon and Lintner argued that investors value dividends more than capital
gains when making decisions related to stocks.
residual
Other Considerations :
Assessment of valuation information
Apart from expectations of investors and clientele issues, one
must also consider benchmark with other companies in industry
Control
High dividends and need to raise capital later
Low dividends and take over bids
Restrictions in bond indenture and loan agreement