Discrete Distributions

Learning Objectives
• Distinguish between discrete random
variables and continuous random variables.
• Know how to determine the mean and
variance of a discrete distribution.
• Identify the type of statistical experiments
that can be described by the binomial
distribution, and know how to work such
problems.
 Learning Objectives -- Continued
• Decide when to use the Poisson distribution
in analyzing statistical experiments, and
know how to work such problems.
• Decide when binomial distribution
problems can be approximated by the
Poisson distribution, and know how to work
such problems.
• Decide when to use the hypergeometric
distribution, and know how to work such
problems.
Discrete vs. Continuous Distributions
• Random Variable -- a variable which contains
the outcomes of a chance experiment
• Discrete Random Variable -- the set of all
possible values is at most a finite or a countably
infinite number of possible values
– Number of new subscribers to a magazine
– Number of bad checks received by a restaurant
– Number of absent employees on a given day
• Continuous Random Variable -- takes on values
at every point over a given interval
– Current Ratio of a motorcycle distributorship
– Elapsed time between arrivals of bank customers
– Percent of the labor force that is unemployed
 Some Special Distributions
• Discrete
– binomial
– Poisson
– hypergeometric
• Continuous
– uniform
– normal
– exponential
– t
– chi-square
– F
 Discrete Distribution -- Example

Distribution of Daily
Crises P
Number of r 0.5
Probability o
Crises 0.4
b
0 0.37 a 0.3
b
1 0.31 i
0.2
2 0.18 l 0.1
3 0.09 i
t
0
4 0.04 0 1 2 3 4 5
y
5 0.01 Number of Crises
 Requirements for a
Discrete Probability Function
• Probabilities are between 0 and 1,
inclusively
0 ≤ P( X ) ≤ 1 for all X
• Total of all probabilities equals 1

∑ P( X ) = 1
over all x
 Requirements for a Discrete
Probability Function -- Examples
X P(X) X P(X) X P(X)

-1 .1 -1 -.1 -1 .1
0 .2 0 .3 0 .3
1 .4 1 .4 1 .4
2 .2 2 .3 2 .3
3 .1 3 .1 3 .1
1.0 1.0 1.2
PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION
: YES NO NO
Mean of a Discrete Distribution

µ = E ( X ) = ∑ X ⋅ P( X )
X P(X) X⋅ P(X)
-1 .1 -.1
0 .2 .0
1 .4 .4
2 .2 .4
3 .1 .3
1.0 µ = 1.0
 Variance and Standard Deviation
of a Discrete Distribution
2
( ) 2
σ = ∑ X −µ ⋅ P( X ) = 1.2 σ = σ = 1.2 ≅ 1.10
2

X P(X) X −µ (X −µ) ( X − µ)
2 2
⋅ P( X )

-1 .1 -2 4 .4
0 .2 -1 1 .2
1 .4 0 0 .0
2 .2 1 1 .2
3 .1 2 4 .4
1.2
 Mean of the Crises Data Example
µ = E ( X ) = ∑ X ⋅ P( X ) = 115
.
X P(X) X• P(X) P
r 0.5
0 .37 .00
o 0.4
1 .31 .31 b
a 0.3
2 .18 .36 b
0.2
i
3 .09 .27
l 0.1
4 .04 .16 i
t
0
0 1 2 3 4 5
5 .01 .05 y
Number of Crises
1.15
 Variance and Standard Deviation
of Crises Data Example

σ = ∑( X −µ ) ⋅ P( X ) = 1.41
2
σ σ
2 2
= = 1.41 = 119
.

X P(X) (X-µ ) (X-µ ) 2

(X-µ ) 2 • P(X)
0 .37 -1.15 1.32 .49
1 .31 -0.15 0.02 .01
2 .18 0.85 0.72 .13
3 .09 1.85 3.42 .31
4 .04 2.85 8.12 .32
5 .01 3.85 14.82 .15
1.41
 Binomial Distribution
• Experiment involves n identical trials
• Each trial has exactly two possible outcomes:
success and failure
• Each trial is independent of the previous trials
• p is the probability of a success on any one trial
• q = (1-p) is the probability of a failure on any
one trial
• p and q are constant throughout the experiment
• X is the number of successes in the n trials
• Applications
– Sampling with replacement
– Sampling without replacement -- n < 5% N
 Binomial Distribution

• Probability n! X n− X
function P( X ) =
X !( n − X ) !
p ⋅q for 0 ≤ X ≤ n

• Mean value µ = n⋅ p
• Variance
and σ = n⋅ p⋅ q
2

standard
deviation σ= σ = 2
n⋅ p⋅ q
Binomial Distribution: Development
• Experiment: randomly select, with replacement,
two families from the residents of Tiny Town
• Success is ‘Children in Household:’ p = 0.75
• Failure is ‘No Children in Household:’ q = 1- p =
0.25
• X is the number of families in the sample with
‘Children in Household’

Children in Number of Listing of Sample Space

Family
Household Automobiles
(A,B), (A,C), (A,D), (A,A),
A Yes 3
(B,A), (B,B), (B,C), (B,D),
B Yes 2
(C,A), (C,B), (C,C), (C,D),
C No 1
(D,A), (D,B), (D,C), (D,D)
D Yes 2
Binomial Distribution: Development
Continued
Listing of
• Families A, B, and D have Sample P(outcome)
X
children in the household; Space

family C does not (A,B), 1/16 2

• Success is ‘Children in (A,C), 1/16 1
(A,D), 1/16 2
Household:’ p = 0.75 (A,A), 1/16 2
• Failure is ‘No Children in (B,A), 1/16 2
(B,B), 1/16 2
Household:’ q = 1- p = 0.25 (B,C), 1/16 1
• X is the number of families (B,D),
(C,A),
1/16
1/16
2
1
in the sample with (C,B), 1/16 1
‘Children in Household’ (C,C), 1/16 0
(C,D), 1/16 1
(D,A), 1/16 2
(D,B), 1/16 2
(D,C), 1/16 1
(D,D) 1/16 2
 Binomial Distribution: Development
Continued
Listing of P(X)
Sample P(outcome) X
X
Space
0 1/16
1 6/16
(A,B), 1/16 2 2 9/16
(A,C), 1/16 1 1
(A,D), 1/16 2
(A,A), 1/16 2
n! x n− x
(B,A),
(B,B),
1/16
1/16
2
2
P( X ) =
X !( n − X ) !
pq
(B,C), 1/16 1
(B,D), 1/16 2 2! 0 2 −0 1
0!( 2 − 0) ! .75 .25
(C,A), 1/16 1 P( X = 0) = = 0.0625 =
(C,B), 1/16 1 16
(C,C), 1/16 0
(C,D), 1/16 1 2! 1 2 −1 3
1!( 2 − 1) ! .75 .25
(D,A), 1/16 2
P( X = 1) = = 0.375 =
16
(D,B), 1/16 2
(D,C), 1/16 1 2! 9
2 2−2

2!( 2 − 2) ! .75 .25

(D,D) 1/16 2 P ( X = 2) = = 0.5625 =
16
Binomial Distribution: Development
Continued
• Families A, B, and D
have children in the Possible
P(sequence)
household; family C Sequences X

does not
(F,F) (. 25 )(. 25 ) 0
• Success is ‘Children in
Household:’ p = 0.75 (S,F) (. 75)(. 25) 1

• Failure is ‘No Children (F,S) (. 25)(. 75) 1

in Household:’ q = 1- p (. 75 )(. 75 )
(S,S) 2
= 0.25
• X is the number of
families in the sample
with ‘Children in
Household’
 Binomial Distribution: Development
Continued
Possible
P(sequence) P(X)
Sequences X X

(F,F) (.25)(.25)= (.25)2 0 0 (.25)(.25)= (.25)2 =0.0625

(S,F) (.75)(.25) 1 1 2 (.25)(.75) =0.375

(F,S) (.25)(.75) 1 2 (.75)(.75)= (.75)2 =0.5625

(S,S) (.75)(.75)= (.75)2 2 n! x n− x

P( X ) =
X !( n − X ) !
pq
2! 0 2 −0 2! 1 2 −1
P ( X = 0) =
0!( 2 − 0) ! .75 .25 = 0.0625 P( X = 1) =
1!( 2 − 1) ! .75 .25 = 0.375

2! 2 2 −2
P ( X = 2) =
( )
2! 2 − 2 ! .75 .25 = 0.5625
 Binomial Distribution:
Demonstration Problem 5.3
• According to the US Census Bureau,
approximately 6% of all workers in
Jackson, Mississippi, are unemployed. In
conducting a random telephone survey in
Jackson, what is the probability of getting
two or lesser unemployed workers in a
sample of 20?
 Binomial Distribution:
Demonstration Problem 5.3
n = 20
p =. 06
q =. 94
P( X ≤ 2 ) = P ( X = 0 ) + P ( X = 1) + P ( X = 2 )
=. 2901+. 3703+. 2246 =. 8850

P ( X = 0) =
20!
0!(20 − 0)!
( .06) ( .94)
0 20 −0
= (1)(1)(.2901) =.2901

P ( X = 1) =
20!
1!( 20 − 1)!
( .06) ( .94)
1 20 −1
= (20)(.06)(.3086 ) =.3703

P ( X = 2) =
20!
2 !( 20 − 2)!
( .06) ( .94)
2 20 − 2
= (190)(.0036 )(.3283) =.2246
 n = 20 PROBABILITY
X 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9

Binomial 0
1
0.122
0.270
0.012
0.058
0.001
0.007
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
2 0.285 0.137 0.028 0.003 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Table 3
4
0.190
0.090
0.205
0.218
0.072
0.130
0.012
0.035
0.001
0.005
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
5 0.032 0.175 0.179 0.075 0.015 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000
6 0.009 0.109 0.192 0.124 0.037 0.005 0.000 0.000 0.000
7 0.002 0.055 0.164 0.166 0.074 0.015 0.001 0.000 0.000
8 0.000 0.022 0.114 0.180 0.120 0.035 0.004 0.000 0.000
9 0.000 0.007 0.065 0.160 0.160 0.071 0.012 0.000 0.000
10 0.000 0.002 0.031 0.117 0.176 0.117 0.031 0.002 0.000
11 0.000 0.000 0.012 0.071 0.160 0.160 0.065 0.007 0.000
12 0.000 0.000 0.004 0.035 0.120 0.180 0.114 0.022 0.000
13 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.015 0.074 0.166 0.164 0.055 0.002
14 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.005 0.037 0.124 0.192 0.109 0.009
15 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.015 0.075 0.179 0.175 0.032
16 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.005 0.035 0.130 0.218 0.090
17 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.012 0.072 0.205 0.190
18 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.028 0.137 0.285
19 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.007 0.058 0.270
20 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.012 0.122
 Using the
n = 20 PROBABILITY
X 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4

0 0.122 0.012 0.001 0.000

1
2
3
0.270
0.285
0.190
0.058
0.137
0.205
0.007
0.028
0.072
0.000
0.003
0.012
Binomial Table
4
5
6
0.090
0.032
0.009
0.218
0.175
0.109
0.130
0.179
0.192
0.035
0.075
0.124
Demonstration
7
8
9
0.002
0.000
0.000
0.055
0.022
0.007
0.164
0.114
0.065
0.166
0.180
0.160
Problem 5.4
10 0.000 0.002 0.031 0.117
11 0.000 0.000 0.012 0.071
12 0.000 0.000 0.004 0.035
13
14
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.001
0.000
0.015
0.005
n = 20
15 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 p =.40
16 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
17
18
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
P ( X = 10) = 20C10 ( .40) ( .60)
10 10
= 01171
.
19 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
20 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Binomial Distribution using Table:
Demonstration Problem 5.3
n = 20
n = 20 PROBABILITY
X 0.05 0.06 0.07 p =. 06
0 0.3585 0.2901 0.2342 q =. 94
1 0.3774 0.3703 0.3526
2 0.1887 0.2246 0.2521
P( X ≤ 2) = P( X = 0) + P( X = 1) + P( X = 2)
3 0.0596 0.0860 0.1139 =. 2901 +. 3703 +. 2246 =. 8850
4 0.0133 0.0233 0.0364
5 0.0022 0.0048 0.0088 P ( X > 2 ) = 1 − P ( X ≤ 2 ) = 1−. 8850 = .1150
6 0.0003 0.0008 0.0017
7
8
0.0000 0.0001 0.0002
0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
µ = n ⋅ p = (20 )(. 06 ) = 1. 20
…
20
… … …
0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 σ = n ⋅ p⋅ q = (20 )(. 06 )(. 94 ) = 1.128
2

σ = σ = 1.128 = 1. 062
2
Excel’s Binomial Function
n =20
p =0.06

X P(X)
0 =BINOMDIST(A5,B$1,B$2,FALSE)
1 =BINOMDIST(A6,B$1,B$2,FALSE)
2 =BINOMDIST(A7,B$1,B$2,FALSE)
3 =BINOMDIST(A8,B$1,B$2,FALSE)
4 =BINOMDIST(A9,B$1,B$2,FALSE)
5 =BINOMDIST(A10,B$1,B$2,FALSE)
6 =BINOMDIST(A11,B$1,B$2,FALSE)
7 =BINOMDIST(A12,B$1,B$2,FALSE)
8 =BINOMDIST(A13,B$1,B$2,FALSE)
9 =BINOMDIST(A14,B$1,B$2,FALSE)
Minitab’s Binomial Function
X P(X =x)

0 0.000000
1 0.000000
2 0.000000
3 0.000001
4 0.000006
5 0.000037
6 0.000199
7
8
0.000858
0.003051
Binomial with n = 23 and p = 0.64
9 0.009040
10 0.022500
11 0.047273
12 0.084041
13 0.126420
14 0.160533
15 0.171236
16 0.152209
17 0.111421
18 0.066027
19 0.030890
20 0.010983
21 0.002789
22 0.000451
23 0.000035
Graphs of Selected Binomial Distributions
n = 4 PROBABILITY 1.000
P = 0.5

X 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.900

0.800

0 0.656 0.063 0.000 0.700

0.600

1 0.292 0.250 0.004 0.500

P(X)
0.400
0.300
2 0.049 0.375 0.049 0.200
0.100
3 0.004 0.250 0.292 0.000
0 1 2 3 4
4 0.000 0.063 0.656 X

P = 0.1 P = 0.9
1.000 1.000
0.900 0.900
0.800 0.800
0.700 0.700
0.600 0.600
0.500 0.500

P(X)
P(X)

0.400 0.400
0.300 0.300
0.200 0.200
0.100 0.100
0.000 0.000
0 1 2 3 4 0 1 2 3 4
X X
 Poisson Distribution
• Describes discrete occurrences over a
continuum or interval
• A discrete distribution
• Describes rare events
• Each occurrence is independent of any
other occurrences.
• The number of occurrences in each interval
can vary from zero to infinity.
• The expected number of occurrences must
hold constant throughout the experiment.
Poisson Distribution: Applications
• Arrivals at queuing systems
– airports -- people, airplanes, automobiles,
baggage
– banks -- people, automobiles, loan applications
– computer file servers -- read and write
operations
• Defects in manufactured goods
– number of defects per 1,000 feet of extruded
copper wire
– number of blemishes per square foot of painted
surface
– number of errors per typed page
 Poisson Distribution
• Probability function

λe
X −λ

P( X ) = for X = 0,1, 2, 3,...

X!
where:
λ = long − run average
e = 2. 718282... (the base of natural logarithms)
■ Mean value ■ Variance ■ Standard deviation

λ λ λ
 Demonstration Problem 5.8
• Bank customers arrive randomly on
weekday afternoons at an average rate of
3.2 customers every 4 minutes. What is the
probability of getting exactly 10 customers
during an 8 minute interval? What is the
probability of getting exactly 6 customers
during an 8 minute interval?
 Demonstration Problem 5.8

λ = 3. 2 customers / 4 minutes λ = 3. 2 customers / 4 minutes

X = 10 customers / 8 minutes X = 6 customers / 8 minutes
Adjusted λ Adjusted λ
λ = 6. 4 customers / 8 minutes λ = 6. 4 customers / 8 minutes

P(X) = λ e P(X) = λ e
X −λ X −λ

X! X!
10 −6.4 6 −6.4

P( X = 10 ) = 6.4 e = 0. 0528 P( X = 6) = 6.4 e = 0.1586

10 ! 6!
Poisson Distribution: Probability Table

λ
X 0.5 1.5 1.6 3.0 3.2 6.4 6.5 7.0 8.0
0 0.6065 0.2231 0.2019 0.0498 0.0408 0.0017 0.0015 0.0009 0.0003
1 0.3033 0.3347 0.3230 0.1494 0.1304 0.0106 0.0098 0.0064 0.0027
2 0.0758 0.2510 0.2584 0.2240 0.2087 0.0340 0.0318 0.0223 0.0107
3 0.0126 0.1255 0.1378 0.2240 0.2226 0.0726 0.0688 0.0521 0.0286
4 0.0016 0.0471 0.0551 0.1680 0.1781 0.1162 0.1118 0.0912 0.0573
5 0.0002 0.0141 0.0176 0.1008 0.1140 0.1487 0.1454 0.1277 0.0916
6 0.0000 0.0035 0.0047 0.0504 0.0608 0.1586 0.1575 0.1490 0.1221
7 0.0000 0.0008 0.0011 0.0216 0.0278 0.1450 0.1462 0.1490 0.1396
8 0.0000 0.0001 0.0002 0.0081 0.0111 0.1160 0.1188 0.1304 0.1396
9 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0027 0.0040 0.0825 0.0858 0.1014 0.1241
10 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0008 0.0013 0.0528 0.0558 0.0710 0.0993
11 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 0.0004 0.0307 0.0330 0.0452 0.0722
12 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 0.0164 0.0179 0.0263 0.0481
13 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0081 0.0089 0.0142 0.0296
14 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0037 0.0041 0.0071 0.0169
15 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0016 0.0018 0.0033 0.0090
16 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0006 0.0007 0.0014 0.0045
17 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 0.0003 0.0006 0.0021
18 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 0.0002 0.0009
 Demonstration Problem 5.9
• If a real estate office sells 1.6 houses on an
average weekday and the sales of houses on
weekdays are Poisson distributed, what is
the probability of selling exactly 4 houses
in one day? What is the probability of
selling more than 5 houses in a day? What
is the probability of selling 2 or more
houses in a day?
Poisson Distribution: Using the
Poisson Tables
λ
λ = 1. 6
X 0.5 1.5 1.6 3.0
0 0.6065 0.2231 0.2019 0.0498
1 0.3033 0.3347 0.3230 0.1494
2
3
0.0758
0.0126
0.2510
0.1255
0.2584
0.1378
0.2240
0.2240
P( X = 4 ) = 0. 0551
4 0.0016 0.0471 0.0551 0.1680
5 0.0002 0.0141 0.0176 0.1008
6 0.0000 0.0035 0.0047 0.0504
7 0.0000 0.0008 0.0011 0.0216
8 0.0000 0.0001 0.0002 0.0081
9 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0027
10 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0008
11 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002
12 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001
 λ
Poisson X
0
0.5
0.6065
1.5
0.2231
1.6
0.2019
3.0
0.0498

Distribution: 1
2
0.3033
0.0758
0.3347
0.2510
0.3230
0.2584
0.1494
0.2240
3 0.0126 0.1255 0.1378 0.2240
Using the 4
5
0.0016
0.0002
0.0471
0.0141
0.0551
0.0176
0.1680
0.1008

Poisson 6
7
0.0000
0.0000
0.0035
0.0008
0.0047
0.0011
0.0504
0.0216
8 0.0000 0.0001 0.0002 0.0081
Tables 9
10
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0027
0.0008
11 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002
12 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001

λ = 1. 6
P( X > 5) = P( X = 6) + P( X = 7) + P( X = 8) + P( X = 9)
=. 0047 +. 0011 +. 0002 +. 0000 =. 0060
 λ
X 0.5 1.5 1.6 3.0
Poisson 0
1
0.6065
0.3033
0.2231
0.3347
0.2019
0.3230
0.0498
0.1494

Distribution: 2
3
4
0.0758
0.0126
0.0016
0.2510
0.1255
0.0471
0.2584
0.1378
0.0551
0.2240
0.2240
0.1680

Using the 5
6
0.0002
0.0000
0.0141
0.0035
0.0176
0.0047
0.1008
0.0504
7 0.0000 0.0008 0.0011 0.0216
Poisson 8
9
0.0000
0.0000
0.0001
0.0000
0.0002
0.0000
0.0081
0.0027

Tables 10
11
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0008
0.0002
12 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001

λ = 1. 6
P( X ≥ 2) = 1 − P( X < 2) = 1 − P( X = 0) − P( X = 1)
= 1−. 2019 −. 3230 =. 4751
 Poisson Distribution: Using the
Poisson Tables
• What is the probability of selling exactly 4
houses in 2 days?

• The interval has been changed from 1 day

to 2 days. A lambda of 1.6 for 1 day
converts to a lambda of 3.2 for 2 days. The
previous table no longer applies and the
table for lambda = 3.2 must be used.
Looking up x = 4 gives the probability as
0.1781.
 Poisson Distribution: Graphs

λ = 1. 6
0.35

0.30
0.16
λ = 6. 5
0.14
0.25 0.12

0.20 0.10
0.08
0.15
0.06
0.10
0.04
0.05 0.02
0.00 0.00
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Excel’s Poisson Function
λ =1.6

X P(X)
0 =POISSON(D5,E$1,FALSE)
1 =POISSON(D6,E$1,FALSE)
2 =POISSON(D7,E$1,FALSE)
3 =POISSON(D8,E$1,FALSE)
4 =POISSON(D9,E$1,FALSE)
5 =POISSON(D10,E$1,FALSE)
6 =POISSON(D11,E$1,FALSE)
7 =POISSON(D12,E$1,FALSE)
8 =POISSON(D13,E$1,FALSE)
9 =POISSON(D14,E$1,FALSE)
 Minitab’s Poisson Function
X P(X =x)

0 0.149569
1 0.284180
2 0.269971
3 0.170982 Poisson with mean = 1.9
4 0.081216
5 0.030862
6 0.009773
7 0.002653
8 0.000630
9 0.000133
10 0.000025
 Poisson Approximation
of the Binomial Distribution
• Binomial probabilities are difficult to
calculate when n is large.
• Under certain conditions binomial
probabilities may be approximated by
Poisson probabilities.
If n > 20 and n ⋅ p ≤ 7, the approximation is acceptable .

• Poisson approximation
Use λ = n ⋅ p.
 Poisson Approximation
of the Binomial Distribution
Binomial
Binomial
Poisson n = 10, 000
Poisson n = 50
X λ = 1. 5 p =. 03 Error
X λ = 3. 0 p =. 0003 Error
0 0.0498 0.0498 0.0000
0 0.2231 0.2181 -0.0051
1 0.1494 0.1493 0.0000
1 0.3347 0.3372 0.0025
2 0.2240 0.2241 0.0000
2 0.2510 0.2555 0.0045
3 0.2240 0.2241 0.0000
3 0.1255 0.1264 0.0009
4 0.1680 0.1681 0.0000
4 0.0471 0.0459 -0.0011
5 0.0141 0.0131 -0.0010 5 0.1008 0.1008 0.0000
6 0.0035 0.0030 -0.0005 6 0.0504 0.0504 0.0000
7 0.0008 0.0006 -0.0002 7 0.0216 0.0216 0.0000
8 0.0001 0.0001 0.0000 8 0.0081 0.0081 0.0000
9 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 9 0.0027 0.0027 0.0000
10 0.0008 0.0008 0.0000
11 0.0002 0.0002 0.0000
12 0.0001 0.0001 0.0000
13 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
 Hypergeometric Distribution
• Sampling without replacement from a finite
population
• The number of objects in the population is
denoted N.
• Each trial has exactly two possible outcomes,
success and failure.
• Trials are not independent
• x is the number of successes in the n trials
• The binomial is an acceptable approximation, if
n < 5% N. Otherwise it is not.
 Hypergeometric Distribution
• Probability function ( ACx ) ( N − ACn − x )
– N is population size P( x ) =
– n is sample size N Cn
– A is number of successes in population
– x is number of successes in sample

A ⋅n
• Mean value
µ=
N
A( N − A) n( N −n)
• Variance and standard σ 2
= 2
deviation N ( N −1)

σ = σ 2
 Hypergeometric Distribution:
Probability Computations
• Twenty-four people, of whom 8 are
women, apply for a job. If 5 of the
applicants are sampled randomly, what is
the probability that exactly 3 of those
sampled are women?
 Hypergeometric Distribution:
Probability Computations
N = 24 ( ACx ) ( N − ACn − x )
X=8
P( x = 3) =
N Cn
n=5
( 8C 3) ( 24 − 8C5 − 3)
P(x) =
x
C5
24
0 0.1028
1 0.3426 ( 56) ( 120)
=
2 0.3689 42,504
3 0.1581
4 0.0264 =.1581
5 0.0013
Hypergeometric Distribution: Graph

N = 24 0.40

X=8 0.35

n=5 0.30

0.25
P(x) 0.20
x
0.15
0 0.1028
0.10
1 0.3426
0.05
2 0.3689
0.00
3 0.1581 0 1 2 3 4 5

4 0.0264
5 0.0013
 Hypergeometric Distribution:
Demonstration Problem 5.11
• Suppose 18 major computer companies
operate in the United States and that 12 are
located in California’s Silicon Valley. If 3
computer companies are selected randomly
from the entire list, what is the probability
that 1 or more of the selected companies
are located in the Silicon Valley?
 Hypergeometric Distribution:
Demonstration Problem 5.11
N = 18 X P(X)
n=3 0 0.0245
A = 12 1 0.2206
2 0.4853
3 0.2696

P ( x ≥ 1) = P ( x = 1) + P ( x = 2) + P ( x = 3)
( 12 C1) ( 18 − 12 C 3 − 1) ( 12 C 2 ) ( 18 − 12 C 3 − 2 ) ( 12 C 3) ( 18 − 12 C 3 − 3)
= + +
C3 18 18 C3 18 C3
=.2206 +.4853 +.2696
=.9755
 Hypergeometric Distribution:
Binomial Approximation (large n)

Hypergeometric Binomial
N = 24 n=5
X=8 p = 8/24 =1/3
n=5

x P(x) P(x) Error

0 0.1028 0.1317 -0.0289
1 0.3426 0.3292 0.0133
2 0.3689 0.3292 0.0397
3 0.1581 0.1646 -0.0065
4 0.0264 0.0412 -0.0148
5 0.0013 0.0041 -0.0028
 Hypergeometric Distribution:
Binomial Approximation (small n)
Hypergeometric Binomial
N = 240 n=5
X = 80 p = 80/240 =1/3
n=5

x P(x) P(x) Error

0 0.1289 0.1317 -0.0028
1 0.3306 0.3292 0.0014
2 0.3327 0.3292 0.0035
3 0.1642 0.1646 -0.0004
4 0.0398 0.0412 -0.0014
5 0.0038 0.0041 -0.0003
Excel’s Hypergeometric Function
N =24
A =8
n =5

X P(X)
0 =HYPGEOMDIST(A6,B$3,B$2,B$1)
1 =HYPGEOMDIST(A7,B$3,B$2,B$1)
2 =HYPGEOMDIST(A8,B$3,B$2,B$1)
3 =HYPGEOMDIST(A9,B$3,B$2,B$1)
4 =HYPGEOMDIST(A10,B$3,B$2,B$1)
5 =HYPGEOMDIST(A11,B$3,B$2,B$1)
=SUM(B6:B11)
Minitab’s Hypergeometric Function
X P(X =x)

0 0.102767
1 0.342556
2 0.368906
3 0.158103
4 0.026350
5 0.001318

Hypergeometric with N = 24, A = 8, n = 5