Overview

Climate Change, Greenhouse Effect, and Global

Warming Defined
Greenhouse gases
Evidence of global warming
Impact(s) of climate change
Impact on health
CLIMATE CHANGE
 refers to any distinct change in measures of climate
lasting for a long period of time, including major
changes in temperature, rainfall, snow, or wind
patterns lasting for decades or longer.
Climate change may result from
• natural factors, such as changes in the Sun’s energy
or slow changes in the Earth’s orbit around the
Sun;
• natural processes within the climate system;
• human activities that change the atmosphere’s
make-up and the land surface.
GLOBAL WARMING
• is an average increase in temperatures near the
Earth’s surface and in the lowest layer of the
atmosphere.
• Increases in temperatures in our Earth’s
atmosphere can contribute to changes in global
climate patterns.
• Global warming can be considered part of climate
change along with changes in precipitation, sea
level, etc.
GREENHOUSE EFFECT
• The greenhouse effect is a natural process that sees the
Earth's atmosphere insulate the Earth.
• Incoming solar radiation (short-wave radiation) is
absorbed at the Earth's surface. The Earth's climatic
system then redistributes this energy around the globe,
through atmospheric and oceanic circulation
patterns. Energy is then radiated back from the Earth's
surface into the atmosphere as long-wave radiation
• Over time there is an approximate balance in this
incoming (short-wave) and outgoing (long-wave)
radiation. Changes to this balance, such as changes in
the amount of radiation received or lost by the system, or
changes to the distribution cycles within the system, can
affect climate.
GREENHOUSE GASES
• water vapor and carbon dioxide (CO2), occur
naturally. human activities are adding large
amounts of: carbon dioxide, methane (CH4),
nitrous oxide (N2O), hydro fluorocarbons (HFCs),
per fluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulfur hexafluoride
(SF6).
• Since 1750, atmospheric concentrations of CO2,
CH4 and N2O have increased by over 36 percent,
148 percent and 18 percent, respectively.
GLOBAL WARMTH… SO WHAT?
• The heating of the Earth's surface and atmosphere
affects these climate variables to produce extreme
weather and climate events.
• Climate change is already being observed in a
range of climate variables , such as: temperature,
rainfall, atmospheric moisture, snow cover, land
and sea ice, sea level, wind patterns and ocean
circulation patterns.
Major global killers are
affected by climate
Each year:
• Weather– related disasters kill over 60,000
• Under nutrition kills 3.5 million
• Diarrhea kills 2.2 million
• Malaria kills 900,000
(WHO, 2003, 2008)
Global warming increases the likelihood it will be hot or very
hot and decreases, but does not eliminate, the likelihood it will
be cold or very cold. Source: IPCC, 2007
AGRICULTURE & FORESTRY
• The supply and cost of food may change as farmers
and the food industry adapt to new climate
patterns. A small amount of warming coupled with
increasing CO2 may benefit certain crops, plants
and forests, although the impacts of vegetation
depend also on the availability of water and
nutrients. For warming of more than a few
degrees, the effects are expected to become
increasingly negative, especially for vegetation
near the warm end of its suitable range.
WATER RESOURCES
• In a warming climate, extreme events like floods and
droughts are likely to become more frequent.
• More frequent floods and droughts will affect water
quality and availability.
• Increases in drought in some areas may increase the
frequency of water shortages and lead to more
restrictions on water usage.
• An overall increase in precipitation may increase
water availability in some regions, but also create
greater flood potential.
ENERGY
• Warmer temperatures may result in higher energy
bills for air conditioning in summer, and lower
bills for heating in winter. Energy usage is also
connected to water needs. Energy is needed for
irrigation, which will most likely increase due to
climate change. Also, energy is generated by
hydropower in some regions, which will also be
impacted by changing precipitation patterns.
COASTS
• If you live along the coast, your home may be
impacted by sea level rise and an increase in storm
intensity. Rising seas may contribute to enhanced
coastal erosion, coastal flooding, loss of coastal
wetlands, and increased risk of property loss from
storm surges.
WILDLIFE
• Warmer temperatures and precipitation changes
will likely affect the habitats and migratory
patterns of many types of wildlife.
• The range and distribution of many species will
change, and some species that cannot move or
adapt may face extinction.
WHO: Five major health
impacts of climate change
• Malnutrition
• Deaths and injuries caused by storms and floods.
(Flooding can also be followed by outbreaks of
diseases, such as cholera)
• Water scarcity / contamination (droughts and sudden
floods) – increased burden of diarrheal disease.
• Heat waves – direct increases in morbidity and
mortality; indirect effects via increases in ground-level
ozone, contributing to asthma attacks.
• Vector-borne disease – malaria and dengue.
Health impact of climate change
• Air pollution - a reduction in the cold, calm winter
weather associated with winter air pollution
episodes together with reduced emissions of key
pollutants including particles, oxides of nitrogen
and sulphurdioxide could lead to a reduction (up to
50%) in the adverse health effects of winter air
pollution.
• A small overall increase in the number of summer
ozone episodes coupled with a longer-term increase
in background levels of ozone could cause a rise in
the number of premature deaths.
AIR POLLUTION
• Pollution determined by emissions & weather
• Ozone levels dépendent on pollution control
• Air quality decline:
 severity of asthma
• Increases in ozone:
extra deaths
hospital admissions
Infectious diseases – foodborne
and waterborne diseases
Foodborne diseases
• Likely increase in cases of food poisoning
• incidence dependent on future food hygiene behavior
• evidence confirms the effect of temperature on
salmonellosis
• role of temperature in Campylobacter transmission
remains uncertain
Waterborne diseases
• Likely increase in cases of Cryptosporidiosis
• Impact of increased temperature on water quality &
disinfection
Extremes of temperature -
heat-related deaths
• could increase to around 2,800 cases per year.
• This is likely to be offset by milder winters leading to a
fall in cold-related winter deaths of up to 20,000 cases
per year.

• Exposure to ultra violet radiation

Likely increases in:
• Sunburn
• Skin cancer
• Possibly cataracts
River, Coastal Flooding & Flash
Floods
• Few direct deaths
• Food and water safety concerns
• Effects on health and social service delivery
• Full effect in terms of mortality and morbidity not known
 Accidents – drowning, electrical
 Contamination of drinking water
 Rise in waterborne infections
 Exposure to toxic pollutants
 Psychological consequences
 Disruption, injuries & deaths
 Late effects include stress & mental health problems
• Flooding – increased frequency of severe coastal
and river floods
• Analysis of more recent river flooding shows that
mental health problems are the most important
health impact among flood victims due to
experience of personal and economic loss and
stress.
UV exposure
• Levels of UV radiation reaching the earth’s surface
may increase due to sunnier summers
• A decline in cloud cover and ozone depletion
(which reduces the capacity of the ozone layer to
absorb UV).
• Predicted an extra 5,000 cases of skin cancer and
2,000 of cataract per year by 2050.
Vector-borne diseases
• Various diseases transmitted by mosquitoes or
ticks are climate-sensitive and can increase or be
introduced due to climate change.
• Malaria might be re-established in non-endemic
areas.
• Potential emergence of other vector-borne
diseases, such as West Nile Fever.
• Outbreaks of malaria likely to be rare
• Possible increase in flies
• Tick borne likely to be more common, but relate to
land use/leisure activities rather than climate change
 Lyme disease – no observed correlation between
temperature and incidence
 Tick-borne encephalitis – low chances of occurrence

*(diarrheal disease), midges, fleas, stinging insects

Need to be alert to possibility of emerging infections
• Food poisoning - higher temperatures in summer
could cause an estimated 10,000 extra cases of
salmonella infection per year.

• Storms – any increase in the frequency of severe

winter storms could lead to an increase in personal
injuries from flying debris and falling trees.
Water-borne disease
• climate change might increase levels of
cryptosporidium and campylobacter in water
• Secure sanitation systems should safeguard
supplies of drinking water, but possible
contamination of storm water outflows could carry
disease into basements and nearby rivers, affecting
the health of residents and river users.
What diseases are the most
climate sensitive?
• heat stress
• effects of storms
• air pollution effects
• asthma
• vector-borne diseases
• water-borne diseases
• food-borne diseases
• sexually-transmitted diseases
Health impact of extreme events
Lead to:
• Social disruption
• Homelessness
• Injuries, deaths, disability
• Impacts on food and
water supply
• Extreme weather-related
events (natural disasters)
Potential Health Benefits
Due to both direct & indirect effects:
• Increased physical activity due to extended warm
weather. But, outcomes could be worse due to extreme
heat
• Reduced obesity and road traffic injuries through active
transport
• Possibly healthy eating through adoption of sustainable
farming & food policy and diets containing less animal
products
• Reduced respiratory illness by improvements in air
quality
• Increased home energy efficiency reducing temperature-
related illness
The Challenge of Climate
Change:
Adaptation and Mitigation
 Dealing with Climate Change:
Mitigation and Adaptation

Climate change

Impacts

Mitigation Adaptation

Responses
Mitigation Measures
1. Reduction of activities.
2. New alternatives: technologies, behaviors,
sources of energy.
3. Sequestration (capture): forests, soil, ocean,
and underground
The need for adaptation
Mitigation will not work. So it is necessary to
organize in order to take advantage of the new
opportunities (longer growing season) and
avoid some of the negative impacts (extreme
weather variability, drought).
Mitigation Plans
• Implementation of the Clean Development
Mechanism to reduce the emission of GHG (
identify mitigation options for the transportation
sector).
• An increment of the forestry and cultivated areas
(sequestration) and better management of forests
and soil (preservation of the capital of carbon)
Adaptation Plans
 The development of vulnerability and adaptation
studies in areas such as:
a. replacement of crop varieties;
b. changes in planting dates and feasibility of
relocation;
c. impact of climate change on desertification;
d. impact of heat conditions on native forest species;
e. pest and disease control;
f. design and implement early warning systems for El
Nino y La Nina.
Adaptive capacity
• Adaptation is a technical issue related to the
vulnerability of economic activities
• Social vulnerability and institutional adaptive
capacity are ignored
Conceptual Vulnerability Model

Exposure Adaptive
of System Capacity

Vulnerability
Vulnerability
• Vulnerability = impact of climate condition – the
adaptive capacity of society
• The adaptive capacity = technology, resources,
infrastructure, human capital, well developed
institutions, and equity.