Describes Experimental Probability

M5SP-IVi-14/ Page 66 of 109

Drill
Tell whether the following is sure to happen, likely to happen
or impossible to happen.
a. The baby cooks for the family.
b. The lost cellular phone was found.
c. The teacher teaches the pupils.
d. The man collapses during the rally.
e. The cat drives the car.
Have the class listen to the song Kapaligiran.
Discuss the message of the song relating to prediction. Which
line in the song tells something that will likely happen? Will
unlikely happen ? Is it impossible to happen? or certain to
happen?
Present to the class a number cube.
Ask:
If you roll a 0-5 number cube, what is the probability that you
will roll 7?
If you roll a 0-5 number cube, what is the probability that you
will roll a number less than 7?
If you roll a 0-5 number cube, what is the probability that you
will roll an even number?
If you roll a 0-5 number cube, what is the probability that you
will roll an odd number?
Pair-Share Activity
For each of the following spinners, give the probability that
the pointer will stop on
Ask the pair to put their output on the board.
Ask: How did you find the activity?
How did you perform the simple probability experiment?
How did you express the outcomes of your probability
experiments?
A probability tells us how likely something is to happen.
We use fractions to describe probability. For example, if you
flip a coin it has an equal chance to land on either of its two
faces. The probability that the coin will land heads up is 1
result out of two possible outcome, or ½ . Since it is likely that
the coin will land tails up, that probability is also ½.
Even though we might imagine the coin landing on its edge,
this event is so unlikely that we don’t usually consider it.
We expect a coin to land heads up half of the time and tails
up the other half. Nothing else is likely to happen.
If something cannot possibly happen, the probability is 0. If
something is certain to happen, the probability is 1.
Explore and Discover!
Andre and Emma are rolling a 0-5 number cube. When the cube
shows 0,1 or 2, Andre wins. When it shows 3,4,or 5 Emma wins
What is the probability that Emma will win?
What is the probability that Andre will win?
Suppose they play game 120 times.
About how many times would you expect Emma to win?
About how many times would you expect Andre to win?
Would you be surprised if Emma did not win exactly 60 times?
Which spinner gives a ¼ probability of landing on red?
Describe three instances where the probability of those
events happening are 0 .
A probability tells us how likely something is to happen.
If something cannot possibly happen, the probability is 0. If
something is certain to happen, the probability is 1.
KEEP MOVING!
A die is tossed. What is the probability of getting
3 _________
An even number _________
7 _________
An odd number _________
A prime number _________
Assessment
Answer the following questions.
Jimmy and Naomi are rolling a regular 0-5 number cube. Jimmy wins
if 0 is rolled. Naomi wins if 1,2,3,4 or 5 is rolled.
1.Who do you think will win more often?
2.What fraction of the time do you think Jimmy will win?
3.What is Naomi’s probability of winning?
4.If they roll the cube 6 times, how many times would you expect
Jimmy to win?What is 1/6 of 6?
5.Should you be surprised if Jimmy did not win exactly 1 time out of 6
tries?
Home Activity
Remediation
Write 0 for impossible to happen, ½ for equally likely to happen and 1 for
certain to happen.
_____1. From a class of 30 boys and 30 girls, what is the probability that a girl
is chosen as a leader?
_____ 2. Without looking, what is the probability that a green pen is drawn
from a box of green pen?
_____ 3. What is the probability that a tomato is drawn from a box of apples
and oranges.
______ 4. From tossing a coin, what is the probability that the head shows up?
______ 5. What is the probability that an odd number of dots show up if a die
is rolled?
Performs an experimental probability and records result by
listing
M5SP-IVi-15/ Page 66 of 109
a. Spin the spinner
b. Put a mark in the tally column for each color where the spinner stops.

Do this experiment for 10 times

c. Add the tally marks for each column and write the number in the frequency
column.
Color Tally Frequency

Blue
Yellow
Green
If you roll a die, what is the probability that you will roll 2? 1?
8? Even numbers? Odd numbers?
Show the pictures of the Great European Mathematician like
Gerolamo Cardano, Pierre de Fermat, Blaise Pascal and
Christian Huygens.
Say: Did you know that they began to analyse simple games
of chance involving cards and dice?
Show a calendar to the class.

Say: Consider the days of the week. If you choose a day at

random, the probability that it is a Monday is 1 out of 7 of
1/7. The probability that you choose begins with the letter T
is 2 out of 7 or 2/7. The probability that the day you choose
has less than 15 letters is 7 out of 7 or 1. The probability of an
impossible event, such as choosing a day with only 3 letters is
0 out of 7 or 0.
Group the class into four. Ask the class to perform the task
assigned to them. Require them to write the results of the
simple experiments on manila paper using the table.
PICK A COLOR
Materials: a box, 6 marbles, ( 3 green, 2 blue, 1 red)
Groups : four
Procedure:
a.Put the marbles in the box. Without looking, draw one
marble from the box and record the color in the table below.
 color tally number
Green
Blue
Red
b.Put the marble back in the box. Do more 19 trials. Replace the
marble each time after recording the color.
c.How many times out of 20 did you draw a blue marble?

The probability can be approximated by the fraction

P( event) = number of times an event occurred
Number of times the experiment was performed

Such a fraction is called the experimental probability of an event.

Give your experimental probability for each event.
P(green) = ______ P(blue) = ______ P (red) = ______
20 20 20
The greater the probability of an event, the more likely it will
occur. The smaller the probability of an event, the less likely
the probabilities.
Ask; How did you find the activity?
How did you perform the probability experiment?
How did you express the outcomes of your probability
experiment?
What did you notice in the results of your probability
experiment?
Lead the discussion on using the formula in expressing
outcomes of probability experiments.
Explore and Discover!
Our class is having a contest. Each of us will answer a question
concerning different subjects. We have to spin a wheel to find out
what category our question will be. The wheel looks like this

SCIENCE SCIENCE

MATH MATH

GEOGRAPHY SCIENCE

MATH
What is the probability of the wheel stopping at:
SCIENCE ____________________
MATH ____________________
HISTORY ____________________
GEOGRAPHY ____________________
GET MOVING!
Refer to the exercise in Explore and Discover
Based on the number line of probability, between the given 2
subjects, in which subject is the wheel more likely to stop?
Science or Math _______________________
History or Geography _______________________
Math or History _______________________
Geography or Science _______________________
Geography or Math _______________________
What is the probability of landing on a Music subject? Explain your
answer.
KEEP MOVING!
In a bag there are 10 blocks numbered 1 to 10. I will draw a block from
the bag. What is the probability of my drawing a block with :
Number 5 _______________
Number 9 _______________
Number less than 6 _______________
An odd number _______________
An even number _______________
Number more than 3 _______________
Which is more likely to happen, drawing an even numbered block or drawing
an odd numbered block? Explain your answer.
APPLY YOUR SKILLS
Kristine has 5 blouses – 1 with flower prints, 1 plain white, 1
with polka dots, a checkered one and a plain yellow blouse. She also
has 3 skirts – 1 black , 1 brown and 1 navy blue. How many possible
different combinations of skirt and blouse can she have?
Lorraine puts cards with letters of her name into a box. What
is the probability that the card she pulls out is _____

a. L? ______
b. O? ______
c. R? ______
d. A? ______
e. I? ______
f. N? ______
g. E? ______
Ask: How do you record prediction?
By doing probability experiment, we can determine the
number of times an event occur. We use a table and record
the outcome of probability experiment.
The probability can be approximated by the fraction
P( event) = number of times an event occurred
Number of times the experiment was performed
Assessment
Express the outcomes of your prediction. Write your answer in your
notebook.
1. What is the chance that you will get a perfect score in you Math quiz?
2. What is the probability that a newly born puppy is a girl?
3. Toss a die, what is the probability that you will get 4 on top?
4. What is the probability that Claire chooses a rose from a flower shop
selling sunflower, tulips, and dahlia?
5. Toss a coin. What is the probability that neither the head not the tail
shows up?
Home Activity
Remediation
What is the probability that this spinner will land on

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
 Analyzing data obtained from chance using experiments
involving letter cards (a to z) and number cards ( 0 – 20)
M5SP-IVi-16/ Page 66 of 109
Drill
Game ka na ba?
Materials:
4 rolled papers numbered ( 1 to 4 )
8 hidden questions on situations to be predicted
Mechanics:
a.Form 4 teams having equal number of members. The leader of the team draws and gets 2
questions to be predicted by the team in terms of:
•Likely to happen
•Impossible to happen
•Unlike to happen
•Certainty to happen
•Equally likely to happen
b.Output of each team will be presented on the board.
c. The class, together with the teacher, processes the responses of teams.
Review : Writing Ratio
Find my Partner
Materials:
25 cards – with ratio expressed in fraction
25 cards – with ratio expressed in colon equal to the former sets
of cards
Mechanics:
a.Form 4 teams. Have the cards distributed to the class.
b.The first team will stand and look for the partner of the ratio. The next
team follows.
c.The team with the highest number of partner wins
Motivation
How many sides does a coin have?
If you are to toss a coin, what is the chance that your coin will land
head?
 a. Have each member of the team pick a letter without
PICKING A CARD looking . Let them find the probability of picking letter G.
b. Ask them to find the number of possible outcomes.
c. Let them answer on the prediction card. Encourage
them to determine the probability of picking G.
d. Lead them to come up with G is 1out of 10 or 1/10
e. Ask them to symbolize the probability as P(G) =
1/10
Let us use the number line to show the probability of an
event.
Refer to LM(Number line)
We can see on the number line that if probability is less than
½ , an event is unlikely to happen. If the probability is more
than ½ the event is likely to happen. A probability of 1 means
the event will certainly happen and a probability of 0 means
the event is impossible to happen.
Alphabet cards of the same size and shape were put in a bag. 3 cards
have letter M, 4 cards have letter A, 2 cards have letter T, and 1 card
has letter H.
1. What is the total number of possible outcomes? ____
2. What is the probability of picking a:
a. card with letter M ________ f. card with a consonant________
b. card with letter A ________ g. card with M or T ________
c. card with letter T ________ h. card with letter J ________
d. card with letter H ________ i. card with T of H ________
e. card with a vowel ________ j. card with letter A or T _______
Ask; How did you find the activity?
How did you perform the probability experiment?
How did you express the outcomes of your probability experiment?
What did you notice in the results of your probability experiment?
Lead the discussion on using the formula in expressing outcomes of
probability experiments.
Explore and Discover!
Study the situation and give the answer to the questions that follow.
Randy, Manny and Jan put 3 As, 4 Bs and 5 Cs in the box. They will take turns in
getting a letter from the box. They are trying to test the probability of getting their
favourite letter.
Randy – A Manny – B Jan – C
What is the probability of getting each boy’s favourite letter?
Randy _____________
Manny _____________
Jan _____________
If you are next to Jan to pick up a letter and your favourite letter is A , What is the
probability of getting your favourite letter?
Who is most unlikely to get his favourite letter.
Make a list of all possible combinations of numbers 1 to 20 and letters A to Z.
A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20 Tell how many possible outcomes there are.
KEEP MOVING!
Maybel put candies in a bag. 8 of the candies are red, 4 are yellow, 2
blue, and 7 brown. She gave the bag of candies to Patti and Paul.
Patti’s favourite color is red and Paul’s is blue.
What is the probability of getting a:
Blue candy?
Yellow candy?
Brown candy?
Red candy?
Green candy?
Red or brown candy?
Assuming only the more likely outcome would happen,
answer the following:
If Patti and Paul will take turns to get 1 candy each time, with
Patti first and followed Paul, what is the probability of?
Patti getting her favourite color? ________
Paul getting his favourite color? ________
APPLY YOUR SKILLS
Inside a bag are lollipops in wrappers of different colors.
There are 5 lollipops in red wrappers, 8 in green wrappers, 2
in blue wrappers, and 3 in yellow wrappers.
What is the probability of picking a lollipop in green wrapper?
What is the probability of picking a lollipop in red wrapper?
What color of lollipop is most unlikely to be picked?
There are 4 different letters to match with 6 different numbers. If you
look for the probability of getting 1 letter and 1 number combination,
what will be your total number f possible outcomes?
Ask: How do you tell the number of favourable outcomes/chances?
A favourable outcome is the result we want to happen in an event.
Assessment
Study the cards with letters.
One card is drawn from a well-shuffled 9
letter cards. What is the probability of
drawing a card having the following
letter/s?
a. L,O,V,E
b. M, A, T
c. I
d. V, E
e. Y
Home Activity
Remediation
There are 4 strawberries – flavoured candies and 5 cherry-flavoured
candies in a jar. If Kristine picks first and Randy picks next, what is the
probability of picking a strawberry- flavoured candy? What is the
probability of picking cherry- flavoured candy?