Probability and Statistics Part II

 25. A coin is tossed thrice. What is the

probability that at least two heads
occur?

>> Using a tree diagram:

1 2 3 4

n = 8 (no. of possible outcomes)

h = 4 (no. of outcomes with at least 2 heads)
P = h/n = 4/8 = 1/2
 26. A biased die, in such a way that an even number is thrice
likely to occur as an odd number. If A is an event that a
number more than three occurs on a single toss of the die,
find P(A).

>>For P(Even) =3*P(Odd)

P(Even) = 3/4
P(Odd) =1/4

P(X=2) = P(X =4) = P(X=6) = (3/4)/3 = 1/4

P(X=1) = P(X =3) = P(X=5) = (1/4)/3 = 1/12

>> P(A) = P(X=4,5,6) = P(X=4) + P(X=5)+ P(X=6)

= 1/4 + 1/12 + 1/4
= 7/12
 27. The odds of surviving from lung cancer of a patient is
2:9. What is the probability of not surviving?

>> Odds = p/q = p/(1-p)

Odds of surviving = probability of surviving/probability of not
surviving

2/9 = p/q = p/(1-p); p = 2/11

probability of not surviving(q) = 1-p = 9/11

 28. If 3 night clubs out of 10 in a city are not complying with
"minor prohibition ordinance", and 4 are randomly selected
for inspection, what is the probability that at least one of the
violators will be selected for inspection?

>> p = h/n
h = (3C1*7C3) + (3C2*7C2) + (3C3*7C1) = 175

1 non-violator
3 violators

2 non-violators
2 violators

3 non-violators
1 violator >> p = h/n
= 175/210
n = 10C4 = 210 4 samples = 5/6
selected out of 10
  29. In the game of bridge, the entire deck of 52 cards is dealt
out to 4 players. What is the probability that one of the
players receives all 13 spades?
>> p = h/n
n = 52C13
>> p = h/n
h = 1*4= 4 =4/52C13
= 6.299x10-12

There are 4 players possible to have the set of

spades

There is only one set of 13

spades
 30. Five balikbayans set to meet at XY hotel in Cebu. It
happens that there are four other hotels having the same
name in the province. What is the probability that 3 of them
will meet in one hotel, and the other two will meet in other
hotel?

>> p = h/n
n = 4 x 4 x 4 x 4 x 4 = 1024 ; each balikbayan can choose
one out of the four hotels

h = 5C3*(4x3) = 120

Select any two hotels that will be occupied by 3

and other 2 respectively out of four hotels
>> p = h/n
Select any 3 balikbayans who will meet in one = 120/1024
hotel, the other 2 will meet in other hotel = 15/128
 31. A poker hand consists of 5 cards. If the cards have
distinct consecutive values and are not all of the same suit,
we say that the hand is a straight. For instance, a hand
consisting of five of spades, six of spades, six of spades,
seven of spades, eight of spades, and nine of hearts is a
straight. What is the probability that one is dealt a straight?
>> p = h/n
n = 52C5
>> p = h/n
h = (4*4*4*4*4 – 4) *10 = (45 – 4)*10/52C5
= 3.9x10-3 or 0.004

Deduct the Possible forms of

occurences (4nos) straight (e.g. ace,
in which the cards two, three, four,
have the same suits five…. Ten, jack,
queen, king, ace)

There are 4 suits

per element/card of
straight. 5 cards to
form a straight.
 32. Suppose that that the probability of randomly selected n
people will have distinct birthdays is approximately 1/2. Find
n.

>> p = H/N
0.50 = H/N
N = 365^n ;(365 days – possible birthday of each)
H = 365*364*…*(365-n+1)=365Pn ;(n people have distinct
birthdays)

>> p = H/N
0.50 = 365Pn/365^n;
by Trial and Error: n ≈ 23
 33. The probability that a regularly scheduled flight departs
on time is P(D) = 0.83; the probability that it arrives on time is
P(A) = 0.82; and the probability that it departs and arrives on
time is P(D ∩ A) = 0.78. Find the probability that a plane
arrives on time given that it departed on time.

Where:
By Theorem: P(B│A) = P(A∩B) P(B│A) = probability of event B given
P(A) that independent event A occurs
P(A∩B) = P(B∩A) = probability that
both events, A&B, occur
>>P(A│D) = P(A∩D)
P(D)
= 0.78/0.83
= 0.9398 = 93.98% ≈ 94%
 34. One bag contains 4 white balls and 3 black balls, and a
second bag contains 3 white balls and 5 black balls. One ball
is drawn from the first bag and placed unseen in the second
bag. What is the probability that a ball now drawn from the
second bag is black?

>> 1st case: Black is drawn from the 2nd bag and white is drawn
from the first bag
P(B2∩W1) = P(W1)* P(B2│W1) = (4/7)[5/(8+1)] = 20/63
>> 2nd case: Black is drawn from the 2nd bag and black is drawn
from the first bag
P(B2∩B1) = P(B1)* P(B2│B1) = (3/7)[(5+1)/(8+1)] = 2/7

>> P(B2∩W1) + P(B2∩B1) = 20/63 + 2/7

= 38/63
 35. A small town has one fire engine and one ambulance
available for emergencies. The probability that the fire
engine is available when needed is 0.98, and the probability
that the ambulance is available when called is 0.92. In the
event of an injury resulting from a burning building, find the
probability that both the ambulance and the fire engine will
be available

>>P(F∩A) = P(F)*P(A) ; where P(F) = 0.98, P(A) = 0.92

For mutually exclusive events

>>P(F∩A) = 0.98*0.92
= 0.90
  36. Suppose that a system works if components R and M
work and either of the components N or L work. The
reliability of each component is shown below. Find the
probability that the entire system works.

P1 = 0.85*0.92 P2 = 1- [(1-0.88)*(1-0.95)]
= 0.782 (series) = 0.994 (parallel)

Reliability of a System:Subsystem 1 Subsystem 2

For series system, given p(probability of working)

P1 = 0.782 P2 =
P(system works) = 0.994

P = 0.782*0.994
For parallel system, given p(probability of working) = 0.78 (series)
System
P(system works) =
 37. A truth serum
G =0.05has the property that 90% of the guilty suspects
I =0.95
are properly judged while, of course, 10% of guilty suspects
P(G∩g) P(I∩g) are
improperly found innocent. On the other hand, innocent suspects
g =0.90
are misjudged 1% of the time. If gthe
=0.01
suspect was selected from a
group of suspects iof=0.10
which only 5% have ever committed a crime,
i =0.99
and the serum indicates that he is guilty, what is the probability that
he is innocent?

>>Given: P(g) = judged guilty of the crime

P(i) = judged innocent of the crime
P(G) = guilty committing a crime = 0.05
P(I) = innocent of the crime = 1- P(G) = 0.95
P(g│G) = 0.90 ; P(i│G) = 1- P (g│G) = 1-0.90 = 0.10
P(g│I) = 0.01 ; P(i│I) = 1- P(g│I) = 1-0.01 = 0.99

P(g│I) * P(I) P(I∩g)

>>P(I│g) = By Bayes Rule:
[P(g│G) *P(G)] + [P(g│I) * P(I)]

>> P(I│g)=(0.95*0.01)/[(0.90*0.05)+(0.01*0.95)]
= 0.17
P(G∩g) P(I∩g)
 38. The probability that a patient recovers from a delicate heart
operation is 0.8. What is the probability that exactly 2 of the next 3
patients who have this operation survive?

>> Binomial Distribution: P = nCr ∙ pr ∙ q(n-r)

where n = number of trials (independent) = 3
r = number of successes = 2
n-r = number of failures = 3-2 = 1
p = probability of success = 0.80
q = probability of failure = 1-0.8 = 0.20
P = probability of having exactly r
successes out of n trials

>> P = nCr ∙ pr ∙ q(n-r)

= 3C2 ∙ 0.802 ∙ 0.20(3-2)
= 0.38
 39. In a certain town, 40% of the eligible voters prefer candidate A,
10% prefer candidate B, and the remaining 50% have no
preference. You randomly sample 10 eligible voters. What is the
probability that 4 will prefer candidate A, 1 will prefer candidate B,
and the remaining 5 will have no preference?

>> Multinomial Distribution: P = n!/(n1! *n2!*…*nr!) ∙ p1 n1 ∙ p2 n2 ∙…∙ pr nr

where n = number of trials (independent) = 10
n1,n2,…,nr = number of successes for a
group: nA=4, nB=1, nC=5
p = probability of success of a group:
pA=0.40, pB=0.10, pC=0.50
P = probability of multinomial distribution

>> P = n!/(nA! *nB!*nC!) ∙ pA nA ∙ pB nB ∙ pc nC

= 10!/(4!*1!*5!) ∙ 0.404 ∙ 0.101 ∙ 0.505
= 0.10
 40. A group of 10 individuals is used for a biological case study. The
group contains 3 people with blood type O, 4 with blood type A, and
3 with blood type B. What is the probability that a random sample of
5 will contain 1 person with blood type O, 2 people with blood type
A, and 2 people with blood type B?

>> Hypergeometric Distribution:

P = 3C1*4C2*3C2
Select any 2 from 3 people with blood type B
10C5
Select any 2 from 4 people with blood type A

Select any 1 from 3 people with blood type O

Select any 5 from 10 people used for the case study

>> P = 54/252
= 3/14
  41. In an NBA (National Basketball Association) championship
series, the team that wins four games out of seven is the winner.
Suppose that teams A and B face each other in the championship
games and that team A has probability 0.55 of winning a game over
team B. What is the probability that team A will win the series in 6
games?

>> Negative Binomial Distribution: P = (n-1)C(r-1) ∙ pr ∙ q(n-r)

where n = number of trials (independent) = 6
r = number of successes = 4
n-r = number of failures = 6-4 = 2
p = probability of success = 0.55
q = probability of failure = 1-0.55 = 0.45
P = probability that the rth success (in
>> P = (n-1)C(r-1) ∙ p ∙ q
r (n-r)
this case the 4th success/win of A
= (6-1)C(4-1) ∙ 0.55 ∙ 0.45
4 (6-4)

= 0.19 over B) occurs at kth trial (in this

case at last/6th trial/game)
  42. Three people toss a fair coin and the odd man pays for coffee. If
the coins all turn up the same, they are tossed again. Find the
probability that fewer than 4 tosses are needed.

>> Geometric Distribution: P = p ∙ q(n-1)

where n = number of trials (independent) on
which the first success occurs <4
>> P = q = probability of the coins to turn up the
same = (1/2)3 * 2 = 1/4
p = probability of success = 1-q = 3/4
= P = probability that the first success
occurs at nth trial

= 63/64
  43. On average a certain intersection results in 3 traffic accidents
per month. What is the probability that for any given month at this
intersection at least 2 accidents will occur?

>> Poisson Distribution: P = =

where e = natural logarithm = 2.71828…
λ = rate of occurrence = average number
of occurrence per unit time,
>> P = distance, area, or volume (in this
case per month) = 3 acc./mo
x = number of outcomes occuring in a
= given time interval, t (in this case
within a month) ≥ 2 acc./mo
P = probability of the occurrence of x
= outcomes in a given interval
Taking the complement of X≥2
= 1 – (0.1991) = 0.80
 44. Suppose that the error in the reaction temperature, in °C, for a
controlled laboratory experiment is a continuous random variable x
having the probability density function shown. Find the P(0<x≤1).

>> Continuous Probability Density Function:

P(0<x≤1) =

= 1/9 The function f(x) is a probability density

function for the random variable x,
defined over set of real numbers, if

1.) f(x) ≥ 0, for all x ∈ R

2.)

3.)
 45. The diameter of bolt holes drilled in structural steel members are normally distributed
with a mean of 25.05 mm and a standard deviation 0.10 mm. Holes are out of specifications
if their diameters are less than 24.925mm or more than 25.175mm. What is the probability
that 3 out of 10 samples will be out of specification?

>> Standard Normal Distribution: - distribution of a normal random variable with mean 0 and
variance 1.

μ = 25.05mm; σ = 0.10mm; x1 = 24.925mm, x2 = 25.175mm

z1 = (x1–μ)/ σ = (24.925-25.05)/0.10 = -1.25; P(-1.25) = 0.10565 by calculator
z2 = (x2-μ)/ σ = (25.175-25.05)/0.10 = +1.25; P(+1.25) = 0.89435 by calculator
Area under the curve within z1 = -1.25, z2 = +1.25,
p = P(+1.25) - P(-1.25) = 0.89435 - 0.10565 = 0.7887
pwi = probability that a random bolt is within of specification = 0.7887
pwo= prob. that a random bolt is out of the specification = 1- 0.7887 = 0.2113

Applying binomial formula:

P = nCr ∙ pwor ∙ pwi(n-r) ; n = 10, r = 3, pwo =0.7887, pwi = 0.2113
P = 10C3 ∙ 0.21133 0.7887(10-3)
P = 0.2149 or 21.5%
 For 46-47:The average grade for an exam is 74, and the standard deviation is 7. If 12% of
the class is given As, and the grades are curved to follow a normal distribution.

μ = 74; σ = 7

46. What is the lowest possible A and the highest possible B? (Or Boundary Grade)

P(z1) = 1 – 0.12 = 0.88; by trial and error z1 ≈ 1.18

z1 = (x1–μ)/σ; 1.18 = (x1-74)/7; x1=82.26 ≈ 83

47. Find the 3rd quartile. (Or Highest Grade that leaves 75% of the area to the left)
(Percentile = 1%)
(Decile = 10%)
(Quartile= 25%)

P(z2) = 0.75 ; by trial and error z1 = 0.6745

z2 = (x2–μ)/σ; 0.6745 = (x1-74)/7; x2=78.7215 ≈ 78
 48. Suppose that a system contains a certain type of component whose time, in years, to
failure is given by T. The random variable T is modeled nicely by the exponential distribution
with mean time to failure β = 5. If 5 of these components are installed in different systems,
what is the probability that at least 2 are still functioning at the end of 8 years?

>> Exponential Distribution aka Negative Exponential Distribution

where λ = 1/β
β = mean time between failures, also x = β = 5, so λ = 1/5

>> X = 8, (exceeds 8 yrs);

p(exceeds 8 yrs) = e-(λ)(x) = e-(1/5)(8) = 0.20
p = probability that a random component still functions at the end of 8 yrs = 0.20
q = 1-p = probability that a random component is no more working at the end of 8
yrs
= 1-0.20 = 0.80

Applying binomial formula:

P = nCr ∙ pr ∙ q(n-r) ; n = 5, r = 2 to ∞, p =0.20, q = 0.80

P= = 26% or 0.2627
 E1. At a party, 5 men take off their hats. The hats are then mixed up, and each
man randomly selects one. We say that a match occurs if a man selects his own
hat. What is the probability of no matches? Of exactly 2 matches?

>> Matching Problem:

P (r│n) = Probability of exactly r matches in an arrangement of n things
1 1 1 1 1 (−1)n−r
= ( − + − +…+ )
r! 0! 1! 2! 3! (n−r)!

For 1st question: r = 0, n = 5

1 1 1 1 1 1 1
P (0│5) = 0! ( 0! − 1!
+ 2! − 3! + 4! − 5! ) = 0.3667 or 36.67%

For 2nd question: r = 2, n = 5

1 1 1 1 1
P (2│5) = 2! ( 0! − 1!
+ 2! − 3! ) = 0.1667 or 16.67%
 E2. Shuffle an ordinary deck of playing cards containing four aces. Then turn up
the cards from the top until the first ace appears. On the average, how many
cards are required to produce the first ace?

>> Let Ai be the event that the ith card is the first ace
P (Ai) = Probability of event Ai
4 48 47 50−i
= 53−i ( 52 ● 51
● … ● 54−i )

Then the mean is = σ49

i=1 i P(Ai ) = 10.6 ---- sum of the iP(Ai) column
in the table shown: i P(A ) iP(A )i i
26
iP(A )
0.0096
iP(A )
0.2497
i i

1 0.0769 0.0769
2 0.0724 0.1448 27 0.0085 0.2294
3 0.0681 0.2042 28 0.0075 0.2093
4 0.0639 0.2556 29 0.0065 0.1897
5 0.0599 0.2995 30 0.0057 0.1707
6 0.0561 0.3364 31 0.0049 0.1523
7 0.0524 0.3669 32 0.0042 0.1347
8 0.0489 0.3914 33 0.0036 0.1181
9 0.0456 0.4103 34 0.0030 0.1025
10 0.0424 0.4240 35 0.0025 0.0879
11 0.0394 0.4331 36 0.0021 0.0745
12 0.0365 0.4379 37 0.0017 0.0622
13 0.0338 0.4388 38 0.0013 0.0511
14 0.0312 0.4363
39 0.0011 0.0412
15 0.0287 0.4305
40 0.0008 0.0325
16 0.0264 0.4220
41 0.0006 0.0250
17 0.0242 0.4110
18 0.0221 0.3979
42 0.0004 0.0186
19 0.0202 0.3829 43 0.0003 0.0133
20 0.0183 0.3664 44 0.0002 0.0091
21 0.0166 0.3487 45 0.0001 0.0058
22 0.0150 0.3299 46 0.0001 0.0034
23 0.0135 0.3104 47 0.0000 0.0017
24 0.0121 0.2904 48 0.0000 0.0007
25 0.0108 0.2701 49 0.0000 0.0002
  For 12: How many 3-digit numbers in #10 are greater than 600?

Let’s split the sample points as the numbers 700 to 999, 610 to 699, and 601 to 609.
N (700 to 999) = 3 ● 9 ● 8 = 216
= 10 – 2 (minus two because two numbers
have already been used as hundreds and N (700 to 999) + N (610
Numbers 7, 8, and 9 tens digits)
= 10 – 1 (minus one because one number
to 699) + N (601 to 609)
has already been used as hundreds digit) = 216 + 64 + 8 = 288
N (610 to 699) = 1 ● 8 ● 8 = 64
= 8 (numbers 0 to 9 excluding number 6 which is
already used as hundreds digit and one number
Number 6 utilised as tens digit)
= 8 (numbers 1 to 9 excluding number 6
which is already used as hundreds digit)

N (601 to 609) = 1 ● 1 ● 8 = 8
= 8 (numbers 0 to 9 excluding number 6 which is
already used as hundreds digit and zero utilised as
Number 6 tens digit)
= 1 (zero as
tens digit)