Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Group 5
Outline
1. Bullwhip Effect
2. Process Efficiency
3. Lean Process Analysis
– Muri (Overburden)
– Mura (Unevenness)
– Muda (7 Wastes)
4. Conclusion
2. Bullwhip Effects
20 20
15 15
10 10
5 5
0 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48
Week Week
Wholesaler Retailer Distributor Factory Wholesaler Retailer Distributor Factory
Member Variance of Orders (σ2p) Variance of Demand (σ2r ) BEO player = (σ2p) / (σ2r )
Week Week
Wholesaler Retailer Distributor Factory Factory Wholesaler Retailer Distributor
Member Variance of Net Stock (σ2p) Variance of Demand (σ2r ) BEI player = (σ2p) / (σ2r )
Fill Rate
• The poor performance of retailer can be reflected by average fill rate of only 0.497
represents less than half of the orders delivered to customer on-time.
1.2
0.8
Fill Rate
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46
WEEK
Takt Time
Takt Time = 1 week/ Average Demand from Downstream (week/case)
I want #
Ideal Lead Time = 1 week
of beer!
Average Actual
Lead Time
✖ ✖✖ ✖ ✔
LEAN PROCESS
4. Lean Process
Muri (Overburden)
Contributing factors:
Slow response time
Rank Member
1 Wholesaler
2 Distributor
3 Retailer
4 Factory
4. Lean Process
Mura (unevenness)
Factory is ranked as most inconsistent highest variance in order
& demand.
Rank Member
1 Factory
2 Wholesaler
3 Distributor
4 Retailer
4. Lean Process
Muda (7 Wastes)
All are waiting for information.
1 Waiting Due to irregular demand patterns, all upstream are waiting for delivery from their
downstream.
2 Over Production In anticipation of large orders, all decided to order more that cause over production.
3 Rework/Defects NIL
4 Motion NIL
5 Over Processing The forecast by each member is inaccurate due to imperfect market information.
Due to over production in anticipation of large customer demand, the inventory may be
6 Inventory stored at the warehouse that takes up space, costs money as well as may get damaged with
As each of the components on the supply chain may not cluster together, there are time
7 Transport
wasted between transportation from end to end.
5. Conclusion
Conclusion
• Inefficient and performed poorly to satisfy
customer’s demand.
• The wholesaler is the bottleneck of the supply
chain
• The retailer also contribute significantly
• Way to go : Toyota Production System
• sharing information, accurate forecasting and
standardization in production
Thank You!
Any questions?