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Preparing for Climate Change Impacts

on the Northwest Atlantic Marine Ecosystem


Hosted by

University of Maine School of Law


and
Gulf of Maine Research Institute

26-27 April 2007

Portland, ME
Why We’re Here/What we’re Doing

Societal Relevance

Everyone Participates

Panels provide a necessary (minimal) degree of background (90 mins)

Dealing with uncertainty as we try to develop intelligent and flexible


approaches to public policy (should P≤0.05?)

Develop active connections among our disciplines and as individuals ~


research and public service

Follow-ups
Marine Panel:

Lew InczeClimate Change Background

Andy Pershing GoM Pelagic Ecosystems

Kevin Friedland Fisheries Populations


England
Gld./100 kg
Italy
15

12

9
Holland
6
France

1 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900


Year

From H.H. Lamb (1995)


Climate, History and the Modern World
Temperature (˚C) Relative to Present

Last Major Holocene Temperature Maximum


Glaciation Medieval Warm Period
(~100,000 yrs)
~800-1300 AD

Little Ice Age


~1650-1850 AD

Thousands of years BP)

Compiled by R.S. Bradley and J.A. Eddy based on J.T. Houghton et al., Climate Change: The IPCC Assessment, Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, 1990 and published in EarthQuest, vo. 1, 1991. Courtesy of Thomas Crowley,
Remembrance of Things Past: Greenhouse Lessons from the Geologic Record
Phanerozoic
(majority of macroscopic organisms)

8000

7000
Atmospheric CO2 (ppmv)

6000

Average Global Temp. (˚C)


5000

4000

3000
22

2000

17
1000

0 12
540 mya 250 mya 65 mya 1.5 mya
ice cap during
Late Ordovician
Eccentricity of the Earth’s elliptical orbit xes
no
qui
hee
of t
s ion
re ces
P

Variations in solar output Wobble ±1.5˚ in the Earth’s


axis of rotation relative to the
orbital plane

Hemispheric differences in ratio of land:ocean

Distribution of continental masses, heating/cooling and air mass/winds,


ocean circulation, transport of heat and moisture

Reflectivity (clouds, ice caps, volcanic dust)

Greenhouse gases (water vapor, CO2, methane)

Uplift and erosion: ocean volume and biogeochemical effects


Eccentricity of the Earth’s elliptical orbit xes
no
qui
hee
of t
s ion
re ces
P

Variations in solar output Wobble ±1.5˚ in the Earth’s


axis of rotation relative to the
orbital plane

Hemispheric differences in ratio of land:ocean

Distribution of continental masses, heating/cooling and air mass/winds,


ocean circulation, transport of heat and moisture

Reflectivity (clouds, ice caps, volcanic dust)

Greenhouse gases (water vapor, CO2, methane)

Uplift and erosion: ocean volume and biogeochemical effects


IPCC SRES emissions scenarios

HIGHER
A1FI

End-of-
century
emissions
range from
1x to 5x
1990 levels

LOWER
B1
Temperature

HadCM3
Projected Change in Annual
Temperature for 2071-2100
relative to 1961-1990
Comparison of Annual mean SST at Boothbay Harbor and Prince 5, 1924-2000.
BBH at 43.84 N, 69.64 W; P5 at 44.947 N, 66.812 W

Annual SST

Warm, moist
12.0
Dry, cold
10.0

8.0
BBH
deg C

6.0
Prince 5
4.0
n=32, BBH=1.28 * P5, r2 = 0.72
2.0

0.0
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year
Boothbay Harbor Monthly SST Anomaly (°C) 1905 – 2004
Anomaly = deviation from 20th century mean, 1905-1999

1
4
2
3
3

4 2

5 1
6
Month

0
7

8 ­1

9 ­2
10
­3
11
­4
12

05 15 25 35 45 55 65 75 85 95 04
Year: 1905 - 2004
• Temperature is important but not enough
• Stratification/Vertical Mixing [f (T,S, Wind)]
• Length of Stratified Season
• Salinity and Nutrients of Source waters (remote
influences)

IMPACTS:
• Temperature (north-south shifts in domains/species)
• Increased uncertainty and perhaps lower production
during faunal transitions
• Lots of uncertainty from food web perspective beginning
at primary producers
Available for download at:
http://www.climatechoices.org

UCS NECIA release—June 2007

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