Professional Documents
Culture Documents
by Ken Black
Discrete Distributions
Chapter 4
Probability
Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. © 2003 John Wiley & Sons. 4-1
Learning Objectives
• Comprehend the different ways of assigning
probability.
• Understand and apply marginal, union,
joint, and conditional probabilities.
• Select the appropriate law of probability to
use in solving problems.
• Solve problems using the laws of
probability including the laws of addition,
multiplication and conditional probability
• Revise probabilities using Bayes’ rule.
Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. © 2003 John Wiley & Sons. 4-2
Methods of Assigning Probabilities
Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. © 2003 John Wiley & Sons. 4-3
Classical Probability
Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. © 2003 John Wiley & Sons. 4-4
Relative Frequency Probability
• Based on historical
data
• Computed after P( E ) n e
performing the N
experiment Where:
• Number of times an N total number of trials
event occurred divided
by the number of trials n e
number of outcomes
• Objective -- everyone producing E
correctly using the
method assigns an
identical probability
Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. © 2003 John Wiley & Sons. 4-5
Subjective Probability
• Comes from a person’s intuition or
reasoning
• Subjective -- different individuals may
(correctly) assign different numeric
probabilities to the same event
• Degree of belief
• Useful for unique (single-trial) experiments
– New product introduction
– Initial public offering of common stock
– Site selection decisions
– Sporting events
Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. © 2003 John Wiley & Sons. 4-6
Structure of Probability
• Experiment
• Event
• Elementary Events
• Sample Space
• Unions and Intersections
• Mutually Exclusive Events
• Independent Events
• Collectively Exhaustive Events
• Complementary Events
Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. © 2003 John Wiley & Sons. 4-7
Experiment
• Experiment: a process that produces outcomes
– More than one possible outcome
– Only one outcome per trial
• Trial: one repetition of the process
• Elementary Event: cannot be decomposed or
broken down into other events
• Event: an outcome of an experiment
– may be an elementary event, or
– may be an aggregate of elementary events
– usually represented by an uppercase letter, e.g.,
A, E1
Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. © 2003 John Wiley & Sons. 4-8
An Example Experiment
Experiment: randomly select, without
replacement, two families from the residents of
Tiny Town
Elementary Event: the Tiny Town Population
sample includes families
Children in Number of
A and C Family
Household Automobiles
Event: each family in
A Yes 3
the sample has children B Yes 2
in the household C No 1
Event: the sample D Yes 2
families own a total of
four automobiles
Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. © 2003 John Wiley & Sons. 4-9
Sample Space
• The set of all elementary events for an
experiment
• Methods for describing a sample space
– roster or listing
– tree diagram
– set builder notation
– Venn diagram
Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. © 2003 John Wiley & Sons. 4-10
Sample Space: Roster Example
• Experiment: randomly select, without
replacement, two families from the residents of
Tiny Town
• Each ordered pair in the sample space is an
elementary event, for example -- (D,C)
Children in Number of Listing of Sample Space
Family
Household Automobiles
(A,B), (A,C), (A,D),
A Yes 3
(B,A), (B,C), (B,D),
B Yes 2
(C,A), (C,B), (C,D),
C No 1
(D,A), (D,B), (D,C)
D Yes 2
Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. © 2003 John Wiley & Sons. 4-11
Sample Space: Tree Diagram for
Random Sample of Two Families
B
A C
D
A
B C
D
A
C B
D
A
D B
C
Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. © 2003 John Wiley & Sons. 4-12
Sample Space: Set Notation for
Random Sample of Two Families
Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. © 2003 John Wiley & Sons. 4-13
Sample Space
• Useful for discussion of general principles
and concepts
Listing of Sample Space
Venn Diagram
(A,B), (A,C), (A,D),
(B,A), (B,C), (B,D),
(C,A), (C,B), (C,D),
(D,A), (D,B), (D,C)
Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. © 2003 John Wiley & Sons. 4-14
Union of Sets
• The union of two sets contains an instance
of each element of the two sets.
X 1,4,7,9 X Y
Y 2,3,4,5,6
X Y 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,9
C IBM , DEC , Apple
F Apple, Grape, Lime
C F IBM , DEC , Apple, Grape, Lime
Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. © 2003 John Wiley & Sons. 4-15
Intersection of Sets
• The intersection of two sets contains only
those element common to the two sets.
X 1,4,7,9 Y
X
Y 2,3,4,5,6
X Y 4
Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. © 2003 John Wiley & Sons. 4-18
Collectively Exhaustive Events
• Contains all elementary events for an
experiment
E1 E2 E3
P( Sample Space) 1
Sample
Space
A A P ( A ) 1 P ( A)
Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. © 2003 John Wiley & Sons. 4-20
Counting the Possibilities
• mn Rule
• Sampling from a Population with
Replacement
• Combinations: Sampling from a Population
without Replacement
Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. © 2003 John Wiley & Sons. 4-21
mn Rule
• If an operation can be done m ways and a
second operation can be done n ways, then
there are mn ways for the two operations to
occur in order.
• A cafeteria offers 5 salads, 4 meats, 8
vegetables, 3 breads, 4 desserts, and 3
drinks. A meal is two servings of
vegetables, which may be identical, and one
serving each of the other items. How many
meals are available?
Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. © 2003 John Wiley & Sons. 4-22
Sampling from a Population with
Replacement
• A tray contains 1,000 individual tax returns.
If 3 returns are randomly selected with
replacement from the tray, how many
possible samples are there?
• (N)n = (1,000)3 = 1,000,000,000
Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. © 2003 John Wiley & Sons. 4-23
Combinations
• A tray contains 1,000 individual tax returns.
If 3 returns are randomly selected without
replacement from the tray, how many possible
samples are there?
N N! 1000!
166,167,000
n n!( N n)! 3!(1000 3)!
Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. © 2003 John Wiley & Sons. 4-24
Four Types of Probability
• Marginal Probability: Dividing subtotal by
whole.
e.g.. Swift car owner/total no. of car owner
• Union Probability:Union of two events
e.g. Prob. Who owns swift or Zen
• Joint Probability:Intersection of two events.
e.g. owning both cars.
• Conditional Probability
e.g. owns swift car given that he owns Zen
car also.
Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. © 2003 John Wiley & Sons. 4-25
Four Types of Probability
P( X ) P( X Y ) P( X Y ) P( X | Y )
The probability The probability The probability The probability
of X occurring of X or Y of X and Y of X occurring
occurring occurring given that Y
has occurred
X X Y X Y
Y
Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. © 2003 John Wiley & Sons. 4-26
General Law of Addition
P( X Y ) P( X ) P(Y ) P( X Y )
X Y
Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. © 2003 John Wiley & Sons. 4-27
General Law of Addition -- Example
P( N S ) P( N ) P( S ) P( N S )
N S P( N ) .70
P( S ) .67
.56 P( N S ) .56
.70 .67
P( N S ) .70.67 .56
0.81
Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. © 2003 John Wiley & Sons. 4-28
Office Design Problem
Probability Matrix
Increase
Storage Space
Yes No Total
Noise Yes .56 .14 .70
Reduction No .11 .19 .30
Total .67 .33 1.00
Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. © 2003 John Wiley & Sons. 4-29
Office Design Problem
Probability Matrix
Increase
Storage Space
Yes No Total
Noise Yes .56 .14 .70
Reduction No .11 .19 .30
Total .67 .33 1.00
P( N S ) P( N ) P( S ) P( N S )
.70.67 .56
.81
Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. © 2003 John Wiley & Sons. 4-30
Office Design Problem
Probability Matrix
Increase
Storage Space
Yes No Total
Noise Yes .56 .14 .70
Reduction No .11 .19 .30
Total .67 .33 1.00
P ( N S ) .56.14 .11
.81
Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. © 2003 John Wiley & Sons. 4-31
Venn Diagram of the X or Y
but not Both Case
X Y
Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. © 2003 John Wiley & Sons. 4-32
The Neither/Nor Region
X Y
P( X Y ) 1 P( X Y )
Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. © 2003 John Wiley & Sons. 4-33
The Neither/Nor Region
N S
P( N S ) 1 P( N S )
1.81
.19
Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. © 2003 John Wiley & Sons. 4-34
Special Law of Addition
Y
X
Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. © 2003 John Wiley & Sons. 4-35
Demonstration Problem 4.3
Type of Gender
Position Male Female Total
Managerial 8 3 11
Professional 31 13 44
Technical 52 17 69
Clerical 9 22 31
Total 100 55 155
P( P C ) P( P) P(C)
44 31
155 155
.484
Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. © 2003 John Wiley & Sons. 4-37
Law of Multiplication
Demonstration Problem 4.5
P ( X Y ) P ( X ) P( Y | X ) P ( Y ) P( X | Y )
80
P( M ) 0. 5714
140
P( S| M ) 0. 20
P ( M S ) P ( M ) P ( S| M )
( 0. 5714 )( 0. 20 ) 0.1143
Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. © 2003 John Wiley & Sons. 4-38
Law of Multiplication
Demonstration Problem 4.5
30
Probability Matrix P( S ) 0.2143
140
of Employees
80
Married P( M ) 0.5714
Supervisor Yes No Total
140
Yes .1143 .1000 .2143 P ( S | M ) 0.20
No .4571 .3286 .7857 P ( M S ) P ( M ) P ( S| M )
Total .5714 .4286 1.00 ( 0. 5714 )( 0. 20 ) 0.1143
P( M S ) P( M ) P( M S ) P( S ) 1 P( S )
0. 5714 0.1143 0. 4571 1 0. 2143 0. 7857
P( M S ) P( S ) P( M S ) P ( M S ) P( S ) P ( M S )
0. 2143 0.1143 0.1000 0. 7857 0. 4571 0. 3286
P( M ) 1 P( M )
1 0. 5714 0. 4286
Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. © 2003 John Wiley & Sons. 4-39
Special Law of Multiplication
for Independent Events
• General Law
P( X Y ) P( X ) P( Y | X ) P( Y ) P( X | Y )
• Special Law
If events X and Y are independent,
P( X ) P( X | Y ), and P(Y ) P(Y | X ).
Consequently,
P( X Y ) P( X ) P ( Y )
Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. © 2003 John Wiley & Sons. 4-40
Law of Conditional Probability
• The conditional probability of X given Y is
the joint probability of X and Y divided by
the marginal probability of Y.
P( X Y ) P( Y | X ) P( X )
P( X | Y )
P(Y ) P( Y )
Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. © 2003 John Wiley & Sons. 4-41
Law of Conditional Probability
P ( N ) .70
S N P ( N S ) .56
P( N S )
P( S | N )
.56 P( N )
.70
.56
.70
.80
Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. © 2003 John Wiley & Sons. 4-42
Office Design Problem
Increase
Storage Space
Yes No Total
Noise Yes .56 .14 .70
Reduction No .11 .19 .30
Total .67 .33 1.00
Reduced Sample
Space for P ( N S ) .11
P( N | S )
“Increase P(S ) .67
Storage Space” .164
= “Yes”
Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. © 2003 John Wiley & Sons. 4-43
Independent Events
• If X and Y are independent events, the
occurrence of Y does not affect the
probability of X occurring.
• If X and Y are independent events, the
occurrence of X does not affect the
probability of Y occurring.
If X and Y are independent events,
P( X | Y ) P( X ), and
P(Y | X ) P(Y ).
Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. © 2003 John Wiley & Sons. 4-44
Independent Events
Demonstration Problem 4.10
Geographic Location
Northeast Southeast Midwest West
D E F G
Finance A .12 .05 .04 .07 .28
P ( A G ) 0.07
P( A| G ) 0.33 P( A) 0.28
P(G ) 0.21
P( A| G ) 0.33 P( A) 0.28
Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. © 2003 John Wiley & Sons. 4-45
Independent Events
Demonstration Problem 4.11
D E
A 8 12 20 8
P( A| D) .2353
34
B 20 30 50
20
P( A) .2353
C 6 9 15 85
P( A| D) P( A) 0.2353
34 51 85
Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. © 2003 John Wiley & Sons. 4-46
Revision of Probabilities: Bayes’ Rule
P(Y | Xi ) P( Xi )
P( Xi| Y )
P(Y | X 1) P( X 1) P(Y | X 2 ) P( X 2 ) P(Y | Xn ) P( Xn )
Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. © 2003 John Wiley & Sons. 4-47
Revision of Probabilities
with Bayes' Rule: Ribbon Problem
P( Alamo ) 0. 65
P( SouthJersey) 0. 35
P( d | Alamo ) 0. 08
P( d | SouthJersey) 0.12
P( d | Alamo ) P( Alamo )
P( Alamo| d )
P( d | Alamo ) P( Alamo ) P( d | SouthJersey) P( SouthJersey)
( 0. 08)( 0. 65)
0. 553
( 0. 08)( 0. 65) ( 0.12 )( 0. 35)
P( d | SouthJersey) P( SouthJersey)
P( SouthJersey| d )
P( d | Alamo ) P( Alamo ) P( d | SouthJersey) P( SouthJersey)
( 0.12)( 0. 35)
0. 447
( 0. 08)( 0. 65) ( 0.12 )( 0. 35)
Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. © 2003 John Wiley & Sons. 4-48
Revision of Probabilities
with Bayes’ Rule: Ribbon Problem
Event
P( Ei ) P(d| Ei ) P(Ei d) P( Ei| d )
Alamo 0.65 0.08 0.052 0.052
0.094
=0.553
Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. © 2003 John Wiley & Sons. 4-50
Probability for a Sequence
of Independent Trials
• 25 percent of a bank’s customers are commercial
(C) and 75 percent are retail (R).
• Experiment: Record the category (C or R) for
each of the next three customers arriving at the
bank.
• Sequences with 1 commercial and 2 retail
customers.
– C1 R2 R3
– R1 C2 R3
– R1 R2 C3
Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. © 2003 John Wiley & Sons. 4-51
Probability for a Sequence
of Independent Trials
• Probability of specific sequences containing
1 commercial and 2 retail customers,
assuming the events C and R are
independent
1 3 3 9
P(C1 R 2 R 3) P(C ) P( R) P( R)
4 4 4 64
3 1 3 9
P( R1 C 2 R 3) P( R) P(C ) P( R)
4 4 4 64
3 3 1 9
P( R1 R 2 C 3) P( R) P( R) P(C )
4 4 4 64
Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. © 2003 John Wiley & Sons. 4-52
Probability for a Sequence
of Independent Trials
• Probability of observing a sequence
containing 1 commercial and 2 retail
customers, assuming the events C and R are
independent
P (C1 R 2 R 3) ( R1 C 2 R 3) ( R1 R 2 C 3)
P(C1 R 2 R 3) P( R1 C 2 R 3) P( R1 R 2 C 3)
9 9 9 27
64 64 64 64
Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. © 2003 John Wiley & Sons. 4-53
Probability for a Sequence
of Independent Trials
• Probability of a specific sequence with 1 commercial and
2 retail customers, assuming the events C and R are
independent 9
P C R R P(C ) P( R) P( R)
64
Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. © 2003 John Wiley & Sons. 4-57
Probability for a Sequence
of Dependent Trials
• Probability of a specific sequence with exactly 2 erroneous tax
returns
8 7 32 31 55,552
P( E 1 E 2 N 3 N 4) 0.01
50 49 48 47 5,527,200
• Number of sequences containing exactly 2 erroneous tax
returns
n n n! 4!
nCr C 6
r r
r ! n r ! 2! 4 2 !
• Probability of a sequence containing exactly 2 erroneous tax
returns
55,552
6 0.06
5,527,200
Business Statistics, 4e, by Ken Black. © 2003 John Wiley & Sons. 4-58