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 An election exit poll is a poll of voters taken
immediately after they have exited the polling stations.
 Private companies working for newspapers or
broadcasters Ȃ conduct exit polls
 Used to collect demographic data about voters and to
find out why they voted as they did
 Used as a rough indicator of the degree of election
fraud
 General Public and Media are the beneficiaries
!





 !mportant for political parties which are in fray in
elections i.e. parties regroup and concentrate on
weaker areas
 Post poll strategy has root in exit poll outcome i.e.
formation of government in case of hung assembly
 Though it is banned to publish the exit poll survey
results before the completion of polling in all phases it
can be published before counting after the polling is
complete
 
 Management Decision
 Are Exit Polls accurate!
 How can we make them more accurate!
 Research Problem
 Determine the deviation of the exit polls
 What factors affecting the deviation and how to curb
them!
 Broad Statement Ȃ We want to know the
accuracy/relevance of exit polls therefore we shall study
various elections in the past so that we can explain why
there are discrepancies
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 Does 95% confidence interval affect deviations?
 Do all the news channels make the same mistake?(as
they get the same results most of the times)
 Will increase in the sample size help in curbing
inaccuracy and what will be the tradeoff with cost
 !s it time researcher let hold off cluster sampling?
 External factors come into effect in a 50-50 situation!
 Does ǮShy Tory Factorǯ Exists?
Ô
 
 ÷SDS: ÷entre for the Study of Developing Societies has carried
studies for Exit poll survey
 Dependent more on post poll data of previous elections.
 Questionnaire for survey failed fully to take care of existing
demographic profile.
 They did not identify particular caste but made it as a caste
group.
 Big conflict between sample profile and population profile.
 Sampling Ȃ 1/5000; constituencies covered Ȃ 1/3.
 Data collected via phone, fax etc gives margin for errors.
Ô
   




  

 

  

  Ô
 

  Ô


A research paper on exit polls and election results was
published as a part of book.
The reasons for mismatch given in paper are following:
1) Non response
2) Wording of questions on the survey
3) Timing of the exit polls
4) !nterviewer bias
5) !nfluence of election officials
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 Exploratory Research using qualitative methods

 With this research we are trying to understand the
deviations in exit polls from actual and also provide
insights to improve upon it.
 ÷an be done with minimum time & cost
 ÷an pave a path for a conclusive research for next
elections
 No earlier research or literature study for this
 To describe variation, qualitative research is more
suitable
O 


 Why not a conclusive research?
 Representative and large sample will incur large cost
and time
 Several factors that influence the swing in electoral
cannot be analyzed quantitatively such as caste, anti
incumbency, religion etc.
 !t is uncertain to establish a causal relation in this case
hence causal research cannot be used
 Descriptive research is also not suitable as we are not
trying to describe any characteristic or function
O 
 Research is conducted using both literature search as
well as case studies
 Documented cases of the previous election along with
exit poll results are used.
 ÷ases are selected at both state and national level
 Selected cases represent possible deviations
 Reasons have been analyzed for deviation
Ô
 m 
 Using literature to develop a new hypothesis
 The literature referred are Ȃ trade journals,
professional journals, market research finding
publications, statistical publications
 !n our cases we will be using articles published in
journals as literature for research
 Some of the literatures used Ȃ ÷SDS-!BN Exit Poll
Survey etc.
 m

 Analysing a selected case gives an insight into the
research problem
 ÷ase history of similar situations are well suited to
carry out exploratory research
 Result of investigation of case histories are suggestive,
rather than conclusive
 We are considering 1 national level and 5 state level
exit poll cases that took place in the recent past
focusing on the variation, sampling and interview
methodology



!
 


 Required information is result of exit poll and actual

poll for each election conducted
 Secondary data will be used as it is less time
consuming and also cost effective
 Though primary data would be effective but cost
overweighs the benefits
 Highly complex to collect primary data at state or
national level
 No major elections happening at present



!
 


 Ôevel and distribution of non response
 !nterviewer effects
i
m
i
 
 
   
÷ongress Poll 218 194 101 30
BJPǯs Poll 170 215 125 33
÷NN !BN Ôive 185-205 165-185 110-130 20-30
NDTV 205-215 160-170 120-130 6-10
!ndia Tv 195 189 113 14
Headlines 191 180 134 -
Today
News X 199 191 104 48
Times Of !ndia 201 195 82 65
RESUÔTS 262 159 79 43




!


 ÷  
 ÷

 NDTV- in house and local non-profit private

organization
 !ndia TV- ÷-voter
 Headlines Today- A÷ Nielsen-ORG MARG
 Times Of !ndia- in house
 Outlook- ÷MS
Maharashtra: Elections 2004
÷ ÷   
Aaj Tak 140-150 100-110 30-40
NDTV 120-130 125-135 30-45
Star News 142 122 24
Zee News 125 115 48
   ! " #$

!gnoring local factors like Maratha factor: Aaj Tak included the
Maratha factor while others ignored it. So they got right on two
accounts.
Zee News included incumbency factor as a major factor.
Surveyors were rank outsiders so they failed to capture actual
mood
Gujarat: Elections 2007
÷ ÷   

÷NN-!BN 77-85 92-100 3-7

NDTV 70-95 90-110 3-5

Star News 76 103 3

  "$ % #

Pollsters went wrong as they relied on past data of 2004 lok

sabha elections. ÷ongress led in over 90 assembly seats. This led
to faulty predictions.
Prediction in bipolar contest is also difficult in !ndian scenario.
Uttar Pradesh: Elections 2007
   

÷NN-!BN 152-168 99-111 80-90

NDTV 117-127 113-123 108-118

Star News 137 96 108

  $!" &% '

Pollsters went totally wrong.

Past data were again given prominence by pollsters.
Two factors were ignored by pollsters:
 Higher turnout among backward sections
 !nability to capture the silent mind of the oppressed voter
championed by BSP
West Bengal: Elections in 2006
( ÷ ÷ )

÷NN-!BN 230-240 32-40 17-23

STAR-ANAND 207 44 34

Kolkata-TV 195-205 46-54 30-35

  $#' #! '

÷NN-!BN got it right as they based it on past data.

Vote to seat translation data proved to be correct as pollsters
clearly identified divided opposition.
Ôocal agencies gave importance to incumbency so they were off
the mark.
Bihar: Nov.2005

O
÷ 
*+   
Star news 87 119 16 21
Zee News 89 117 18 19
÷NN-!BN 72-80 130-140 9-14 17-22
Actual Seats 63 143 10 27

Totally out of mark for pollsters.

Pollsters ignored the image of Nitish Kumar. Ôeadership became an important
issue.
Failure to analyze the existing anger of voter on ground level.
÷SDS data base for ÷NN-!BN proved helpful as it came closer.
m


i
 The potential variation due to measuring a sample
rather than the entire population
 Margin of Error
 ÷luster Sampling - randomly select precincts within a
state, then randomly intercept voters as they exit the
selected polling places
 ÷an be more economical than other methods - e.g.
fewer travel expenses, administration costs
 Higher sampling error, which can be expressed in
the so-called "design effect"
x m


i
 The sample size (or number of interviews) gets
bigger
 The percentage estimated approaches 0% or 100%
 The need to be certain about the result (e.g. the
Dzconfidence leveldz) gets smaller.
  
m



 Error will !N÷REASE in a cluster sample as
 x

 




 


 


 


 x
  
 


  

 

 
 !f a characteristic is found in same proportions in all
precincts the sampling error will be lower
 !f the characteristic is concentrated in a few precincts the
sampling error will be larger
 Examples: Gender, Race, Religion
!
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-
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 The reasoning is simple: At a 95% confidence level,
one poll in twenty will produce a result outside the
margin of error.
 They do exit polls in 50 states plus D÷, they could miss
a call in 2-3 states by chance alone. To reduce that
possibility, NEP uses a 99.5% confidence level in
determining the statistical significance of its
projections
 

i

Sample Size

Perce tage
C fi e ce
bei g
Level
estimate
¦!Oxi
Percentage
estimated
gets to
0%/100%
÷onfidence
Sample Size
level gets
gets Bigger
smaller

Margin
Of
Error



Ô
 95% confidence level Ȃ Anything Magical??
 1 in 20 will be out of the margin of error by chance alone
 So, why not increase it to 99.9999% - Six Sigma Style ?
 Trade-off between Ǯsampling errorǯ and Ǯneed to certain about
the resultǯ
 !ndian general election 543 seats in the Ôok Sabha Ȃ 28 seats will
be statistically wrong by chance alone
 Requires a much higher level of confidence to project winners on
Election Night
 To reduce that possibility, NEP uses a 99.5% confidence level in
determining the statistical significance of its projections


" # 


Simple
÷luster
Random
sampling
sampling
[
Ô

 They use bigger sample sizes: For states, they sample 80 to
120 polling places and interview 5000 and 8000
respondents. Their national survey uses up to 22,000
interviews.
 The use two "well trained" interviewers per polling place,
and cover voting all day (8:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m.) with no
interruptions.
 !nterviewers always stand  

  of the polling
place. !f polling place officials will not allow the
interviewers to stand at the exit door, FG Wahlen drops
that polling place from the sample and replaces it with
another sample point.
 Their response rates are typically 80%
!
 $%m

Use better
trained
Get better interviewers
response rate

!ncrease the
no. of
interviews
O

Print Sources
 Marketing Research :An applied Orientation : Dash,S and
Malhotra ,N.K.
Electronic Sources
 http://www.csds.in/pdfs_dataunit/Questionairs/ASSAM%
20Exit%20Polls%20-%202006%20(English).pdf
 http://www.csds.in/research.htm
 http://www.edisonresearch.com/exit_poll_subscribers.php
 http://www.indiaexitpolls.com/
 http://www.travelindia-guide.com/elections-indian-lok-
sabha/election09-exit-polls.php