Severe Weather: Tornadoes

Harold E. Brooks
NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory
Norman, Oklahoma
Harold.Brooks@noaa.gov
 Definition

• Tornado-violently rotating column of air in

contact with the ground associated with a
thunderstorm or developing thunderstorm
– Waterspout-tornado over water
– Intensity measured by damage with Fujita scale
(F0-F5)
 US Averages

• Mean annual damage~$500M

– Highly variable
– Expect a $1B tornado once per decade
• Expected death toll~40 per year
 US Annual Tornadoes

2000

1800

1600

1400

1200
Count

1000

800

600 Regression slope=14/year

400 Raw
200 Regression
Adjusted
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20
2008

Max, min
10th , 90th %iles
25th , 75th %iles
Median
 Mobile Homes

Permanent Homes
 Changes on individual days

• Preliminary reports are what comes in

within a few days
• Final reports
– Bad data
– Late reports come in (+)
– Multiple reports of same tornado (-)
T=86
W=129
H=411
T=57
W=125
H=593
 m=-0.1

m=-0.4
 Fujita scale

• Rates tornado damage from 0 to 5

• Tornadoes in US rated by maximum
damage point
Relationship between tornadic winds and damage
(more than just a function of F-rating—damage is a complex function of wind duration,
acceleration, direction, etc.)

Wurman and Alexander (2004)

F2+ Tornadoes (1951-1995)
nontornadic nontornadic nontornadic

tornadic tornadic tornadic

 In situ observations in tornadoes

960

950

940
Absolute Pressure (millibars)

930

920

910

900

890

880

870

860

850

840
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150
Time (Seconds) June 24, 2003
near Manchester, SD

(Courtesy of Tim Samaras)

 “Ingredients” for severe
thunderstorms-the supercell
• Thunderstorms
– Low-level warm, moist air
– Mid-level (~2-10 km) relatively cold, dry air
– Something to lift the warm, moist air
• Organization
– Winds that increase and change direction with
height over lowest few km
– From equator at surface, west aloft
 Tornadogenesis

• Deep, weak rotation starts

– Environmental wind shear
• Rotation near surface starts
– Probably due to evaporation of rain →
temperature gradients → rotation
• Rotation intensifies (ice skater effect?)
 Environmental conditions

• Significant severe thunderstorms (10%

biggest events, including F2+ tornadoes)
– More consistent in observations, more easily
distinguished
Environment-Event Relationships

• Ingredients based
– Define events in terms of environmental
conditions
• Storm “strength”-CAPE or Wmax
• Organization-0-6 km wind shear
• Initiation?
 Datasets

• Storm Prediction Center severe weather

reports (1991-9)
• Environmental conditions from “reanalysis”
– 1.9x1.9 lat/lon spacing, every 6 hours
– 3.75 million soundings
• Focus on significant severe thunderstorms
• Smooth using Gaussian kernel
Significant Severe Weather
Locations (1991-1999)
Shear

200 800 1800 3200 5000

Wmax CAPE
200 800 1800 3200 5000

Wmax CAPE
Hail Wind

Conditional Probability
Tornado of Events Given
Any Significant Event
 Interannual Variability of
Environments

• Departures from long-term average

• Look at patterns of more and less than
normal
 1973 1998

+ +
-

1987 1988

- -
+ +
Hail (3 in) Wind (75 kt)

Conditional Probability of
Tornado (F3) Really Big Events
 Climate model simulations

• Three main groups (so far)

– GISS (parameterized updraft)
– Oklahoma/Melbourne
– Purdue
• Look at favorable conditions
– Concentrate on changes in model world
Changes in
Environments in
Doubled CO2
(GISS)

(Del Genio et al.,

2007)
(Marsh et al.,
2009)
 Convective Initiation

• Biggest frequency change in environments

in summer
• Initiation less probable in summer for given
environment
Trapp et al. (2008) Regional
Analyses
CAPE S06 (m/s) NDSEV,P (days)
 Summarizing Trapp

• Statistically significant increases in CAPE,

decreases in shear
• Severe weather days increase in all regions,
not significant in Southern Great Plains
 What do we know?
• Reports aren’t very reliable
• Wind vs. hail/tornado
• Intensity is function of shear
• Future
– Favorable severe environments may go up
– Frequency increase for wind more likely
– Intensity distribution may shift slightly
– Initiation is still a question