Professional Documents
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Observation and
Computer Prediction of
Severe Storms
Kelvin K. Droegemeier
School of Meteorology
Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms
University of Oklahoma
Physical Laws
Create a Mathematical
Model
Analyze Results
The Prediction Process
Observe the Atmosphere
Physical Laws
Create a Mathematical
Model
Analyze Results
Observe the Atmosphere
NEXRAD
Doppler
Radar
Automated
Surface
Upper-Air Networks
Balloons
Satellites
Commercial Aircraft
The Prediction Process
Observe the Atmosphere
Physical Laws
Create a Mathematical
Model
Analyze Results
Identify & Apply Physical
Laws
F=ma
The Prediction Process
Observe the Atmosphere
Physical Laws
Create a Mathematical
Model
Analyze Results
Create a Mathematical Model
The Prediction Process
Observe the Atmosphere
Physical Laws
Create a Mathematical
Model
Analyze Results
Create Computer Model
Create Computer Model
Run the Computer Model
■ Solve highly nonlinear partial differential equations
■ East/West Wind
■ North/South Wind
■ Vertical Wind
■ Temperature
■ Water Vapor
■ Cloud Water
■ Precipitating Water
■ Cloud Ice
■ Graupel
■ Hail
■ Surface Temperature
■ Surface Moisture
■ Soil Temperature
■ Soil Moisture
■ Sub-Grid Turbulence
Run the Computer Model
Physical Laws
Create a Mathematical
Model
Analyze Results
Analyze the
Results/Compare/Verify
In the Beginning… ENIAC
ENIAC Versus Today
■ Weighed 30 tons
■ Had 18,000 vacuum tubes, 1,500
relays thousands of resistors,
capacitors, inductors
■ Peak speed of 5000 adds/second and
300 multiplies/sec
■ A 1.2 GHz Pentium IV processor is
500,000 times faster than the ENIAC
■ A desktop PC with 1 Gbyte of RAM
can store 5 million times as much
data as the ENIAC
1950: The First Computer Weather
Forecast Model
450 Miles
Today’s Models
A Typical Forecast From Today’s
Models
What Causes the Major
Problems?
Why the Lack of Detail in the
Model?
This Thunderstorm
Falls Through the Cracks
Why the Lack of Detail in the
Model?
A Foundational Question
■ Commercial aviation
Single diversion averages $10,000 per domestic flight
–
Not unusual for one carrier to have 70 diversions at a hub for a single weather event (1-2 hours)
–
Cost is $700,000 per event
–
Industry loses $1-2 B per year due to weather
–
Continental
(few days)
Model
Global Types
(2 weeks)
Continental
(few days)
Special
Model
Global Types
(2 weeks)
Operational
Continental
(few days)
Special
Model
Global Types
(2 weeks)
Continental
(few days)
Regional
(day)
Special
Local
(few hours) Experimental
Trends in Large-Scale Forecast Skill
Increasing Skill
Crossing the Divide
■ For global models, the
predictability increases for all
resolvable scales as the
spatial resolution increases
– The improvement is bounded
– Going finer than a few 10s of km
in grid spacing gives little payoff
■ The next quantum leap in NWP
will come when we start
resolving explicitly the most 60 km 30 km
energetic weather features,
e.g., individual convective 30 km 10 km
storms in 3-D
10 km 1 km
Importance of Finer Grid Spacing in Models
512 km
Courtesy NCAR
256 km
128 km
64 km
32 km
16 km
8 km
4 km
2 hr 3 hr 4 hr
7 pm
As a Forecaster
Worried About
This Reality…
7 pm As a Forecaster
Worried About
This Reality…
3 hr
How Much
Trust Would
You Place in
This Model
Forecast?
Uncertainty
■ We never know the complete state of the
atmosphere everywhere, with perfect accuracy
■ Small observation errors can grow with time in a
forecast (chaos)
■ Rather than run a single forecast from one estimate
of the current conditions, we run several based
upon equally plausible initial conditions to account
for observational uncertainty
■ This is “ensemble forecasting”
Actual Radar
Forecast #1 Actual Radar Forecast #2
Forecast #2
Forecast #3
Forecast #50
Recent Real Time Experimental Forecasts
Run by OU for the National Weather
Service
NEXRAD
Kelvin K. Droegemeier
University of Oklahoma
Sarkeys Energy Center, Suite 1110
100 East Boyd Street
Norman, OK 73019
Email: kkd@ou.edu
Phone: 405-325-0453
Fax: 405-325-7614
Mobile: 405-413-7847