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Methodology
• The online survey was conducted among current members of INNOVATIVE’s
Canada 20/20 panel from April 8th to April 11th, 2011.
• The Canada 20/20 Panel is recruited from a wide variety of sources to be
representative of the known distribution of Canadians by age, gender, region
and language.
• Each survey is administered to a series of randomly selected sub samples of the
panel and weighted according to Census data to ensure that the sample is
representative of the age, gender, region and language breakdown of the
Canadian population to provide results that are intended to approximate a
probability sample.
• Each panellist is provided with a unique URL in their invitation so that only
invited panel members are able to complete any specific survey. Each URL can
only be used to complete one survey.
• The weighted total sample included 2059 responses eligible for inclusion in our
analysis. An unweighted probability sample of 2059 would have an estimated
margin of error of ±2.16 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
• The margin of error will be larger within each sub-grouping of the sample.
The Horserace
National Decided Vote by Region
Q If a Federal election were held today, which party would you vote for? In that case, which party do
you lean toward slightly?
61%
51%
42% 42%
35% 38% 37% 37%
ROC Quebec
S tephen S tephen
24% 17% 6%10% 43% 8% 15% 13% 17% 46%
Harper
Harper
Michael
6% 24% 27% 25% 17%
Michael Ignatieff
12% 23% 15% 18% 32%
Ignatieff
Jack Layton 21% 50% 16% 9%3%
Elizabeth May 9% 25% 30% 15% 18% Elizabeth May 4% 14% 37% 13% 20%
ROC Quebec
Wave 2 24% 17% 6% 10% 43% Wave 2 8% 15% 13% 17% 46%
ROC Quebec
Wave 2 12% 23% 15% 18% 32% Wave 2 6% 24% 27% 25% 17%
Wave 1 11% 25% 13% 17% 35% Wave1 6% 29% 24% 24% 16%
ROC Quebec
Wave 2 16% 31% 18% 17% 18% Wave 2 21% 50% 16% 9%3%
Wave 1 17% 31% 16% 18% 18% Wave1 27% 45% 16% 7%3%
ROC Quebec
Wave 2 9% 25% 30% 15% 18% Wave 2 4% 14% 37% 13% 20%
Wave 1 10% 24% 30% 14% 18% Wave1 5% 18% 33% 10% 22%
57%
40% 41%
38%
31% 31% 30%
25% 27%
19%18% 19%16%
17% 15%
13%12% 12% 12%
3% 5% 4% 3%
2% 1%
ROC Quebec
S tephen S tephen
87% 13% Harper
74% 26%
Harper
Michael
Ignatieff
74% 26%
Michael
Ignatieff
82% 18%
Yes No Yes No
15
ROC Quebec
Controversy over excluding people from rallies 26% Party platform/promises - general 20%
Party platform/promises - general 15%
Controversy over excluding people from rallies 15%
Harper - negative 6%
Harper - negative 6%
Getting rid of the long gun registry 6%
Campaigning/campaigning locations 5% Budget announcements/plans to balance budget earlier 5%
Economic recovery/deficit reduction 5% Platform/promises wont come into effect until after budget is balanced 5%
Plans to increase TFSA (after balancing budget) 5% Funding issues of Pont Champlain - Montreal 5%
Budget announcements/plans to balance budget earlier 4% General media coverage 4%
Economic recovery/deficit reduction 3%
Bruce Carson scandal 3%
Campaigning/campaigning locations 3%
General media coverage 3% Plans to increase TFSA (after balancing budget) 2%
Tax breaks/cuts - general 3% Controlling the media/limiting media to five questions per day 2%
Attack ads/general campaign ads 3% Quebec sales tax TVQ 2%
Controlling the media/limiting media to five questions per day 2% Election - general 2%
Tax break/cuts - general 2%
Tough on Crime Bill 2%
Hydro deal in NFLD 2%
Against coalition government 2%
Not listening to people 2%
Other 15% Other 14%
16
ROC Quebec
Layt o n camp aig ning acro s s t he co unt ry/ Camp aig n t rail 13% Incresing support in polls (especially in Quebec) 12%
Emp has is o n healt h care imro vement s 9% Election promises (unspecified) 8%
Platfo rm revealed 6%
More funding for seniors / Home care 6%
Do es no t want to s p end mo ney o n jet s b ut rat her up d at e the navy's fleet 5%
General media (tv/radio/interviews, etc.) 6%
Platform revealed 6%
The fo cus o n Layt o ns healt h is s ues 5%
Layton - Personal comment - Positive 5%
Electio n p ro mis es (uns p ecified ) 5%
Layton campaigning across the country/ Campaign trail 4%
Camp aig n ad s 4% Layton wants to limit interest charged on credit cards 3%
Defence p lan releas ed / M ilit ary p o licy / Whit e Bo o k 3% Emphasis on health care imrovements 3%
Want s to increas e CPP 3% Wants to increase CPP 3%
M o re fund ing fo r s enio rs / Ho me care 3% Defence plan released / Military policy / White Book 3%
General med ia (tv/ rad io / int erviews , et c.) 2% Att acking the Conservatives/Harper 3%
Po licy ag ains t co rp o rat e t ax cut s 2% Does not want to spend money on jets but rather update the n 3%
Sp end ing initiat ives (g eneral) 2% Strong support for families 3%
At t acking t he Co ns ervat ives / Harp er 2% Review /Cancel contract for Jet Fighter aircraft 2%
He s up p o rts BC keep ing t he $1.6 b illio n HST allo wance fro m Ott awa 2% Campaign ads 2%
Stro ng s up p o rt fo r families 2% Policy against corporate tax cuts 2%
Layt o n want s to b uild s hip s fo r navy in Canad a 2% Support for people taking care of an elderly/sick relative - 2%
General elect io n co verag e 2% Layton stating how he and his party is there to benefit the 2%
Falling s up p o rt fo r NDP in t he p o lls 2% His position on environment 2%
Ot her 26% Other 19%
20
ROC Quebec
Cons ervative 5% 9% 37% 9% 41%
Cons ervative 14% 7% 37% 8% 35%
40%
37%
25%
21% 22%
16% 15%
13%
9%
3%
ROC Quebec
A lot more interesting than most elections S omewhat more interesting than most elections
About the same level of interest as most elections S omewhat less interesting than most elections
A lot less interesting than most elections
Majority say federal parties are talking about the issues
that matter, particularly outside of Quebec
Q Are any of the federal parties talking about issues you care about in this federal election?
64%
52%
34%
30%
14%
6%
ROC Quebec
39%
29%
27% 26%
22% 20%
18%
7% 6%
ROC Quebec
84%
72%
24%
15%
2% 4%
ROC Quebec
49%
43%
41% 41%
8%
6% 6%
2% 3% 2%
ROC Quebec
Much more likely somewhat more likely Will not effect vote
54%
49%
28%
24%
18%
14%
8%
4%
ROC Quebec
67%
52%
45%
28%
6% 4%
ROC Quebec
72%
63%
20% 19%
7%
6% 4% 4%
2% 2%
ROC Quebec
Much more likely somewhat more likely Will not effect vote
75% 75%
23% 22%
2% 3%
ROC Quebec
71%
62%
11% 11%
8% 8% 8% 9% 9%
3%
ROC Quebec
Much more likely somewhat more likely Will not effect vote
51%
46%
Yes No
The incident had little effect on Bloc voter intent,
especially in a positive way
Q If yes, did that incident leave you more or less likely to vote Bloc Quebecois?
68%
17%
12%
1% 1%
Much more likely somewhat more Will not effect vote S omewhat less Much less likely
likely likely
Majority say too much attention has been put on gaffes
and not enough attention has been put on the real issues
Q A lot of media coverage in this campaign has been about campaign mistakes or gaffes. Which of the
following statements is closest to your view?
66%
59%
36%
28%
6% 6%
ROC Quebec
Too much attention is being given to campaign gaffes , the media s hould focus more on is s ues and policies .
The media are right to focus on gaffes becaus e often the gaffes tell us more about a party than their carefully crafted policies .
Don’t Know
Traffic Congestion
Few feel that the federal government should take
the lead on dealing with traffic congestion
Q Which of the following best represents your view about the role of the federal government when it
comes to dealing with any traffic congestion problems in your area?
39% 38%
30% 31%
28%
21%
10%
3%
ROC Quebec
The federal government should take the lead on dealing with traffic congestion
The federal government should be an equal partner with other governments
The federal government should play a small role while other governments take the lead
The federal government has no role in dealing with traffic congestion
When it comes to traffic, majority do not know which
federal party is best able to deal with congestion issues
Q And which party do you feel is best on dealing with traffic congestion?
64%
56%
14% 14%
7% 9% 10%
5% 7% 5% 5%
ROC Quebec
The Conservative Party The Liberal Party NDP Green Bloc Quebecois Undecided/Don't know
Role of federal government (with respect to traffic) by42
federal party best able to deal with congestion issues
Which of the following best represents your view about the role of the federal government when it
Q comes to dealing with any traffic congestion problems in your area?
The federal
The federal The federal
government should The federal
government government
play a small role government has no
should take the should take the
while other role in dealing with
lead on dealing lead on dealing
governments take traffic congestion
traffic congestion traffic congestion
the lead
Bloc
7% 4% 3% 3%
Quebecois
Green 16% 7% 7% 5%
One-off Questions
Majority disagree that corporate taxes must be lowered
to stimulate economy
Q For each statement below please indicate if you strongly agree, somewhat agree, neither agree nor
disagree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree with each of the following statements:
28% 29%
27%
23%
19%
16% 17%
15%
13%
8%
ROC Quebec
38%
28%
ROC Quebec
(ROC) The Conservatives' election promises will benefit the other provinces more than my province.
(QUEBEC ONLY) The Conservatives' election promises will benefit the other provinces more than
Quebec.
33%
25%
22% 23%
17%
14%
11% 11%
9% 9%
ROC Quebec
S trongly agree S omewhat agree Neither agree nor disagree
Managing Director
Greg Lyle Direct: 416-642-6429
Email: glyle@innovativeresearch.ca