USEFUL STATISTICAL

MODELS

CONT…..
BY
ABDUL RAZAKH
TP
Roll NO:01
 INVENTORY SYSTEM
In realistic inventory system there are three
variables
2. The number of units demanded per order or
per time period.
3. The time b/w demands.
4. The lead time (Time b/w placing an order for
stocking an inventory system and receipt of
that order).
In very simple mathematical models of
inventory system demand is a constant over
time, and lead time is zero or a constant.
But in realistic cases the demand
occurs randomly in time, the no:of units
demanded is also random.
 Lead time distribution can often be fitted
fairly well by a Gamma distribution [Hadely &
Whitin, 1963].

The Geometric, Poisson and Negative

binomial provides a range of distribution shapes
that satisfy a variety of demand patterns
[Fishman,1973].

Negative binomial:-Demand data are

characterized by a long tail ie: Always large
demand will occur.

Geometric:- A special case of negative

binomial, has its mode at unity, given that at
least one demand occurred
 Poisson distribution:-Simple,
extensively tabulated and is well known.
The tail of a Poisson distribution is shorter
than Negative binomial distribution ie:
fewer large demand will occur (Assuming
that both models have the same mean
demand).
RELIABILITY AND MAINTAINABILITY
Time to failure has been modeled using
numerous distributions, including the
exponential, gamma & Weibull.
If only random failure occur, the time-to-
failure distribution may be modeled as
exponential.
Gamma distribution arises from
modeling standby redundancy each
component has an exponential time to
failure.
 When there are a number of
components and failure is due to the most
serious of a large number of defects, or
possible defects, the Weibull distribution
seem to do particularly well as a model.

In situations where most failures are

due to wear, the normal distribution
may very well be appropriate. Long
normal is applicable in describing time to
failure for some types of components.
LIMITED DATA
In many instances the simulation
begins before data collection has been
completed. Three distributions uniform,
triangular & beta distributions are used to
represent incomplete data.

uniform distribution can be used

when inter arrival or service time is known
to be random, but no information is
available about the distribution.
Triangular distribution is used
when assumptions are made about the
minimum maximum and model values of
the random variable.
 Beta distribution provides a
variety of distributional forms on the unit
interval, which with appropriate
modification can be shifted to any desired
interval. The uniform distribution is a
special case of a beta distribution.