CHAPTER FIVE

macro The Open Economy

macroeconomics
fifth edition

N. Gregory Mankiw

PowerPoint® Slides
by Ron Cronovich

© 2004 Worth Publishers, all rights reserved

 Chapter objectives
 accounting identities for the open
economy
 small open economy model
 what makes it “small”
 how the trade balance and
exchange rate are determined
 how policies affect trade balance &
exchange rate

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 2

 Imports and Exports
as a percentage of output: 2003
50%
45%
40%
35%
Percentage of GDP

30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Canada France Germany Italy Japan Mexico U.K. USA

Imports Exports
source: OECD

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 3

 In an open economy,
 spending need not equal output
 saving need not equal investment

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 4

 Preliminaries
C =C +C d f
superscripts:
d =spending on
I =I d
+I f
domestic
G =G +G d f goods
f = spending on
EX = exports = foreign goods
foreign spending on domestic goods
IM = imports = C f + I f + G f
= spending on foreign goods
NX = net exports (a.k.a. the “trade balance”)
= EX – IM

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 5

 GDP = expenditure on
domestically produced g & s
Y =Cd + I d
+ G d + EX

= (C − C f ) + (I − I f ) + (G − G f ) + EX

= C + I + G + EX − (C f + I f
+Gf )

= C + I + G + EX − I M

= C + I + G + NX

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 6

 The national income identity
in an open economy

Y = C + I + G + NX

or, NX = Y – (C + I + G )

domestic
spending
net
exports
output

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 7

 Trade surpluses and deficits

NX = EX – IM = Y – (C + I + G )

 trade surplus:
output > spending and exports > imports
Size of the trade surplus = NX
 trade deficit:
spending > output and imports > exports
Size of the trade deficit = –NX

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 8

 U.S. net exports (% of GDP), 1975-2003
2%

1%

0%

-1%

-2%

-3%

-4%

-5%
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 9

 International capital flows
 Net capital outflows
=S –I
= net outflow of “loanable funds”
= net purchases of foreign assets
the country’s purchases of foreign assets
minus foreign purchases of domestic assets

 When S > I, country is a net lender

 When S < I, country is a net borrower

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 10

The link between trade & cap. flows

NX = Y – (C + I + G )
implies
NX = (Y – C – G ) – I
= S – I
trade balance = net capital outflows

Thus,
Thus,
aa country
country with
with aa trade
trade deficit
deficit ((NXNX <
<
00))
is
is aa net
net borrower
borrower ((SS << II ).).
CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 11
The world’s largest debtor nation
 U.S. has had large trade deficits, been a
net borrower each year since the early 1980s.

 As of 12/31/2003:
 U.S. residents owned $7.9 trillion worth of
foreign assets
 Foreigners owned $10.5 trillion worth of U.S.
assets
 U.S. net indebtedness to rest of the world:
$2.6 trillion---higher than any other country,
hence U.S. is “world’s largest debtor nation”

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 12

 Saving and Investment
in a Small Open Economy
 An open-economy version of the loanable funds model
from chapter 3.
 Includes many of the same elements:

production function: Y = Y = F (K , L)

consumption function: C = C (Y − T )

investment function: I = I (r )

exogenous policy variables: G = G , T = T

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 13

 National Saving:
The Supply of Loanable Funds

r S =Y − C (Y − T ) − G

As in Chapter 3,
national saving
does not depend
on the interest
rate

S S, I

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 14

 Assumptions re: capital flows
a. domestic & foreign bonds are perfect substitutes
(same risk, maturity, etc.)
b. perfect capital mobility:
no restrictions on international trade in assets
c. economy is small:
cannot affect the world interest rate, denoted r*

aa &
& bb imply
imply rr == r*
r*
cc implies
implies r* r* is
is exogenous
exogenous

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 15

 Investment:
The Demand for Loanable Funds
Investment is still a
r
downward-sloping
function
of the
butinterest rate,
the exogenous
world interest rate…
r* …determines
the
country’s level
I (rof)
investment.
I (r* ) S, I

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 16

 If the economy were closed…
r S
…the
interest
rate would
adjust to
equate
investmen rc
t
I (r )
and
saving:
I (rc ) S, I
=S
CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 17
 But in a small open economy…
the r
S
exogenous
world interest
rate NX
determines
…and the r*
investment…
difference
between rc
saving and I (r )
investment
determines
I1 S, I
net capital
outflows and
net exports
CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 18
 Three experiments
1. Fiscal policy at home

2. Fiscal policy abroad

3. An increase in investment
demand

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 19

 1. Fiscal policy at home
r
S 2 S1
An increase in
G or decrease NX2
in T reduces r *
1
saving.
NX1
Results:
∆I = 0
∆NX = ∆S < 0 I (r )

I1 S, I

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 20

NX and the Government Budget Deficit
4 8
Budget deficit

Percent of GDP
Percent of GDP

3 (right scale) 6

2 4

1 2

0 0

-1 -2

-2 -4

-3 -6

-4 -8

-5 Net exports -10

1950 1960 (left scale)
1970 1980 1990 2000

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 21

 2. Fiscal policy abroad
r
Expansionar S1
NX2
y fiscal
policy r2*
NX
abroad *
raises the r1
1

world
interest rate.
Results:
∆I < 0 I (r )
∆NX = −∆I > 0
S, I
*
I (r )
2
I (r1* )

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 22

3. An increase in investment demand
r
S

r*
EXERCISE:
Use the model to NX
determine the 1

impact of an
increase in I (r )1
investment
demand on NX, S, I1 S, I
I, and net capital
outflow.
CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 23
3. An increase in investment demand
r
S
ANSWERS: NX
∆ I > 0, r* 2

∆ S = 0,
net capital NX
outflows 1 I (r )2
and net
exports I (r )1
fall by the
amount ∆ I I1 I2 S, I

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 24

 The nominal exchange rate

e = nominal exchange rate,

the relative price of
domestic currency
in terms of foreign currency
(e.g. Yen per Dollar)

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 25

Exchange rates as of July 12, 2004
country exchange rate
Euro 0.81 Euro/$
Japan 108.2 Yen/$
Mexico 11.5 Pesos/$
Russia 29.1 Rubles/$
South Africa 6.0 Rand/$
Turkey 1,437,120 Liras/$
U.K. 0.54 Pounds/$

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 26

 The real exchange rate

ε = real exchange rate,

the relative price of
the domestic goods
lowercase in terms of foreign goods
Greek letter
epsilon (e.g. Japanese Big Macs
per U.S. Big Mac)

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 27

Understanding the units of ε
e ×P
ε =
P*
(Yen per $) × ($ per unit U.S. goods)
=
Yen per unit J apanese goods

Yen per unit U.S. goods

=
Yen per unit J apanese goods

Units of J apanese goods

=
per unit of U.S. goods

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 28

 ~ McZample ~
 one good: Big Mac
 price in Japan:
P* = 200 Yen
 price in USA:
P = $2.50
 nominal exchange
rate
e = 120 Yen/$ To buy a U.S. Big Mac,
e ×P someone from Japan
ε = would have to pay an
P*
120 × $2.50 amount that could buy
= = 1.5 1.5 Japanese Big Macs.
200 Y en

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 29

 ε in the real world & our model
 In the real world:
We can think of ε as the relative price of

a basket of domestic goods in terms of a

basket of foreign goods
 In our macro model:
There’s just one good, “output.”
So ε is the relative price of one
country’s output in terms of the other
country’s output

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 30

 How NX depends on ε

↑ε ⇒ U.S. goods become more

expensive relative to foreign
goods
⇒ ↓EX, ↑IM
⇒ ↓NX

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 31

 U.S. Net Exports and the
Real Exchange Rate, 1975-2003
Percent of GDP

1973:1 = 100
2% 140

1% 120

0% 100

-1% 80

-2% 60

-3% 40

-4% 20

-5% 0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Net exports (left scale)

Real exchange rate index (right scale)

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 32

 The net exports function
 The net exports function reflects
this inverse relationship between NX
and ε:
NX = NX (ε )

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 33

 The NX curve for the U.S.

so U.S.
When ε is net
relatively exports
low, will
ε1 be high
U.S. goods
are relatively NX(ε
inexpensive )
0 N
NX(ε1)
X
CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 34
 The NX curve for the U.S.

ε At high enough
values of ε,
ε2 U.S. goods
become so
wethat
expensive export
less than
we import

NX(ε
0 )
NX(ε2) N
X
CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 35
 How ε is determined
 The accounting identity says NX = S − I
 We saw earlier how S − I is determined:
• S depends on domestic factors (output,
fiscal policy variables, etc)
• I is determined by the world interest
rate r *
 So, ε must adjust to ensure

NXε( ) =S −I r( * )

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 36

 How ε is determined

Neither S nor I
depend on ε, ε S1 − I (r *)
so the net capital
outflow curve is
vertical.

ε1
ε adjusts to
equate NX NX(ε
with net )
capital NX
NX 1
outflow, S − I.
CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 37
 Interpretation: supply and demand in
the foreign exchange market
demand:
ε S1 − I (r *)
Foreigners need
dollars to buy U.S.
net exports.

supply: ε1
The net capital
outflow (S − I ) NX(ε
is the supply )
of dollars to be NX
NX 1
invested
abroad.
CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 38
 Four experiments
1. Fiscal policy at home

2. Fiscal policy abroad

3. An increase in investment
demand

4. Trade policy to restrict imports

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 39

 1. Fiscal policy at home
A fiscal expansion
reduces national S 2 − I (r *)
saving, net capital
outflows, and the ε S1 − I (r *)
supply of dollars in the
foreign exchange
market… ε2

ε1

…causing the NX(ε

real exchange )
rate to rise NX
NX 2 NX 1
and NX to
fall.
CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 40
 2. Fiscal policy abroad

An increase in r* S1 − I (r1 *)
reduces investment, ε
increasing net capital S1 − I (r2*)
outflows and the
supply of dollars in ε1
the foreign exchange
market…
ε2

NX(ε
…causing the
)
real exchange NX
rate to fall NX 1 NX 2
and NX to
rise.
CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 41
 3. An increase in investment
demand
An increase in S1 − I 2
investment
ε S1 −I 1
reduces net
capital outflows
and the supply ε2
of dollars in the
foreign exchange
market…
ε1

NX(ε
…causing the )
NX
real exchange NX 2 NX 1
rate to rise
and NX to
CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 42
fall.
 4. Trade policy to restrict imports

At any given value of ε,

an import quota ε S −I
⇒ ↓ IM ⇒ ↑NX
⇒ demand for
dollars shifts right ε2

ε1
NX (ε )2
Trade policy NX (ε )1
doesn’t affect S or
I , so capital flows NX
NX1
and the supply of
dollars remains
fixed.CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 43
 4. Trade policy to restrict imports

Results:
ε S −I
∆ ε >0
(demand
increase) ε2
∆ NX = 0
(supply ε1
fixed) NX (ε )2
∆ IM < 0
(policy) NX (ε )1
∆ EX < 0 NX
(rise in ε ) NX1

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 44

 The Determinants of the
Nominal Exchange Rate
 Start with the expression for the real
exchange rate:
e ×P
ε = *
P
 Solve it for the nominal exchange rate:
P*
eε = ×
P

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 45

 The Determinants of the
Nominal Exchange Rate
 So e depends on the real exchange
rate and the price levels at home and
abroad…
 …and we know how each of them is
determined:

P*
eε = ×
P

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 46

 The Determinants of the
Nominal Exchange Rate
P*
eε = ×
P
 We can rewrite this equation in terms of
growth rates (see “arithmetic tricks for
working with percentage changes,” Chap 2 ):
∆eε ∆P ∆ P* ∆ ∆ε
= + *
− = + π* − π
eε P P ε
 For a given value of ε,
the growth rate of e equals the
difference between foreign and
domestic inflation rates.
CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 47
 Inflation and nominal exchange rates
Percentage10
change
9
in nominal
exchange 8 South Africa
rate 7
6 Depreciation
5 Italy relative to
U.S. dollar
4 New Zealand
Australia Spain
3 Sweden
Ireland
2 Canada
1 France UK
Belgium
0
-1 Appreciation
Germany Netherlands
-2 relative to
Switzerland U.S. dollar
-3 Japan
-4
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Inflation differential

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 48

Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)
Two definitions:
– a doctrine that states that goods must
sell at the same (currency-adjusted)
price in all countries.
– the nominal exchange rate adjusts to
equalize the cost of a basket of goods
across countries.
Reasoning:
– arbitrage, the law of one price

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 49

 Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)
 PPP: e × P = P* Cost of a basket
of foreign
goods, in
foreign
Cost of a basket Cost of a basket
currency.
of domestic of domestic
goods, in goods, in
foreign domestic
 Solve for e : currency.
currency. e = P*/ P
 PPP implies that the nominal exchange
rate between two countries equals the
ratio of the countries’ price levels.
CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 50
 Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)
 If e = P*/P,
then P P* P
ε =e × *= × =* 1
P P P
and the NX curve is
horizontal:
ε
S −I Under PPP,
changes in (S
− I ) have no
ε =1 NX
impact on ε or e.

NX
CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 51
Does PPP hold in the real world?
No, for two reasons:
1.International arbitrage not possible.
 nontraded goods
 transportation costs
2.Goods of different countries not perfect
substitutes.
Nonetheless, PPP is a useful theory:
• It’s simple & intuitive
• In the real world, nominal exchange
rates have a tendency toward their PPP
values over the long run.
CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 52
 CASE STUDY
The Reagan Deficits revisited
1970 1980 actual closed small
s s chang economy open
e economy
G–T 2.2 3.9 ↑ ↑ ↑
S 19.6 17.4 ↓ ↓ ↓
r 1.1 6.3 ↑ ↑ no
change
I 19.9 19.4 ↓ ↓ no
change
NX -0.3 -2.0 ↓ no ↓
change
ε 115.1 129.4 ↑ no ↑
change
Data: decade averages; all except r and ε are expressed
as a percent of GDP; ε is a trade-weighted index.
CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 53
The U.S. as a large open economy
 So far, we’ve learned long-run models for
two extreme cases:
 closed economy (chapter 3)
 small open economy (chapter 5)
 A large open economy --- like the U.S. --- is
in between these two extremes.
 The analysis of policies or other exogenous
changes in a large open economy is a
mixture of the results for the closed &
small open economy cases.
 For example…
CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 54
 A fiscal expansion in three models
A fiscal expansion causes national saving to fall.
The effects of this depend on the degree of
openness:
closed large open small open
econom economy economy
y
rises, but not as no
r rises much change
as in closed economy
falls, but not as much no
I falls
change
as in closed economy
no falls, but not as much
NX as in small open falls
change
economy
CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 55
 Chapter summary
1. Net exports--the difference between
 exports and imports
 a country’s output (Y )
and its spending (C + I + G)
2. Net capital outflow equals
 purchases of foreign assets
minus foreign purchases of the country’s assets
 the difference between saving and investment
3. National income accounts identities:
 Y = C + I + G + NX
 trade balance NX = S − I net capital outflow

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 56

 Chapter summary
4. Impact of policies on NX :
 NX increases if policy causes S to rise
or I to fall
 NX does not change if policy affects
neither S nor I. Example: trade policy
5. Exchange rates
 nominal: the price of a country’s currency
in terms of another country’s currency
 real: the price of a country’s goods in terms
of another country’s goods.
 The real exchange rate equals the nominal
rate times the ratio of prices of the two
countries.

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 57

 Chapter summary
6. How the real exchange rate is determined
 NX depends negatively on the real exchange
rate, other things equal
 The real exchange rate adjusts to equate
NX with net capital outflow
7. How the nominal exchange rate is determined
 e equals the real exchange rate times the
country’s price level relative to the foreign price
level.
 For a given value of the real exchange rate, the
percentage change in the nominal exchange rate
equals the difference between the foreign &
domestic inflation rates.

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 58

CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy slide 59