Deduction: major premise: minor premise: conclusion: Abduction: rule: observation: explanation: Induction: case: observation: hypothesized rule:

All balls in the box are black This ball is from the box This ball is black All balls in the box are black This ball is black This ball is from the box These balls are from the box These balls are black All ball in the box are black

A => B A --------B A => B B ------------Possibly A Whenever A then B but not vice versa ------------Possibly A => B

Default reasoning : Assume x to be true when nothing is known to the contrary. I.e. no evidence is now available that says ~x
2

The doorbell rang at 12 clock in the midnight

 Was someone there at the door?  Did mohan wake up?

Proposition 1: AtDoor(x) Doorbell Proposition 2: Doorbell wake(mohan)

Given Doorbell, can we say AtDoor(x), because AtDoor(x) Doorbell? Abductive Reasoning But No, the doorbell might start ringing due to some other reason Eg
 Short circuit  Wind  animals

Given Doorbell, can we say wake(Mohan), because Doorbell Wake(Mohan)? Deductive Reasoning Yes, only IF Proposition 2 is always true. However, in general Mohan may not always wake up, even if the bell rings.

Therefore we cannot answer either of the questions with certainty. Proposition 1 is incomplete. Modifying it as
 AtDoor(x) V ShortCkt V Wind . Doorbell  Doesn t help because the list of possible causes on

the left is huge (infinite??)

Proposition 2 is often true but not a tautology

However, problem like that of the doorbell are very common in real life In AI, we often need to reason under such circumstances
We solve it by proper modelling of uncertainty and impreciseness, and developing appropriate reasoning techniques.

Implications may be weak

 Doorbell (0.8) wake(mohan)

Imprecise language like often, rarely, sometimes

 Need to quantify these in terms of frequencies  Need to design rules for reasoning with these

frequencies

Precise information may be too complex

 Too many antecedents or consequents  AtDoor(x) V ShortCkt V Wind

Doorbell

Incomplete knowledge
 We may not know or guess all the possible

antecedents or consequents  The bell rang due to some spooky reason

Conflicting information
 Expert often provide conflicting information Quantification of measure of belief

Propagation of uncertainties
 In absence of interdependencies propagation of

uncertain knowledge increases the uncertainty of the conclusions  Tomorrow(sunny)[6.0], Tomorrow(warm) [8.0] Tomorrow(sunny) Tomorrow(warm) [?]

Mathematical approach for processing uncertain information

 Sample space set  X={x1,x2, xn} Collection of all possible events Can be discrete or continuous  Probability number P(xi) likelihood of an event xi

to occur
Non-negative value in [0,1] Total probability of the sample space is 1

What is the probability that my house was robbed today? I think there s about 10 percent chance I was robbed today
 Expresses the degree to which I believe this claim

to be true

P(x) = degree of belief that x is true

 Probability is a measure of the degree of belief or

confidence that one has in the truth of a proposition.

People bad at reasoning with probabilities.

 A theory of probability should distinguish good

reasoning from bad reasoning  How can a subjective theory of probability do this?

Step1 : find a way of assigning a number to a person s degree of belief

$ 1000 H Win Bet 2 : T $0 L e $0
250 winning Ticket 750 l ing ticket

$ 1000

1000 ticket

Bet I :

P(head ) = 0.50

P(Win) = 0.25

Step2: Show that a rational betting strategy must satisfy the rules of probability theory
 No rational person will willingly agree to a bet

that is guaranteed to lose them money

Such a bet is called a sure - loss contract

 A set of personal beliefs is called COHERENT if

it is NOT open to a sure-loss contract  A set of personal beliefs is COHERENT

If and only if The set satisfies the rules of probability theory

For mutually exclusive events, the probability for at least one of them is the sum of their individual probabilities Experimental probability
 Based on the frequency of events

Subjective probability
 Based on expert assessment

Describes independent events

 Do not affect each other in any way

Joint probability of two independent events

 A and B  P(A B) = P(A) * P(B) Where n(S) is the number of elements in s

Union probability of two independent events A and B

 P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A B)

= P(A) + P(B) P(A) * P(B)

A value between 0 and 1. P(E) denotes the probability of the event E. P(True) = 1 , i.e. certain event P(False) = 0 , i.e. impossible event P(A) = 1 P(~A) P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B) P(A B)

Describes dependent events

 Affect each other in some way

Conditional probability
 Of event a given that event B has already occurred  P(A|B) = P(A B) / P(B)