The Value of Personal Science

Seth Roberts Tsinghua University

Outline of Talk
1. What is personal science? 2. Stagnation in health care 3. Three flavors of personal science 4. Advantages of personal science 5. Why we need both conventional science & personal science

Personal Science = using science to solve your own problems (science = gather data, draw conclusions)

Old idea data + conclusions = magic New idea data + conclusions + personal involvement = even more magic

Examples of Personal Science

DATA SOURCE WHEN Other People
well diet worked

Yourself
Try diet, weigh yourself

old Ask friend how

recent Read research

Try various foods, articles measure blood sugar new Search Internet for Try different related stories exercises, measure sleep

Personal Science Increasingly Powerful

Gaining on conventional science?


Non-scientists have more access to scientific journals Internet forums, discussion groups, etc. More possible treatments (e.g. foods) available Better cheaper software & computers Better cheaper measurement devices

   

Low-carb diet = lots of meat, dairy (Atkins diet) Shangri-La Diet = drink 3.5 T/day flaxseed oil

What do we learn from this data?



Main conclusions
   

Low-carb diet works (old idea) but after 1 yr regain begins (new idea) Extreme exercise works (old idea) lost weight takes years to regain after exercise stops (new idea) Shangri-La Diet works well (new idea) by comparison with other methods (new idea)

 

Conventional research has never generated such long detailed data

Restless Legs Syndrome (RLS)



Legs itch or tingle. Extremely annoying. Feel better when moved. Common. 11% of Italians 50-89 years old. Dennis Mangan, California lab tech. Mom has life-long RLS. Getting worse. Finds story on website about RLS cured by high-dose niacin Mom tries high-dose niacin. RLS disappears. New idea about RLS. Not mentioned by authoritative websites (e.g., Mayo Clinic).

 

 

Shared Features of Examples



Person. Not professional scientist or doctor. Cares a lot. Method. Try new things he's read about. Solution. Powerful, safe, nearly free. Missed by mainstream research. Contribution to human welfare. Can help millions of people.

 

Stagnation in Health Care

Stagnation in Health Care



Recently looked up in Google Trends

 

health care costs: many searches health care spending: many searches

Stagnation in Health Care



Recently looked up in Google Trends

  

health care costs: many searches health care spending: many searches health care innovation: "not enough search volume to show graphs"

Stagnation in Health Care



Recently looked up in Google Trends

  

health care costs: many searches health care spending: many searches health care innovation: "not enough search volume to show graphs" health care stagnation: "not enough search volume to show graphs"

Stagnation in Health Care



Recently looked up in Google Trends

  

health care costs: many searches health care spending: many searches health care innovation: "not enough search volume to show graphs" health care stagnation: "not enough search volume to show graphs"

Relative number of searches: health care costs = 1, health care spending = 0.05, health care innovation = 0, health care stagnation = 0.

Stagnation in Health Care



Recently looked up in Google Trends:

  

health care costs: many searches health care spending: many searches health care innovation: "not enough search volume to show graphs" health care stagnation: "not enough search volume to show graphs"

Relative number of searches: health care costs = 1, health care spending = 0.05, health care innovation = 0, health care stagnation = 0.

Stagnation in Health Care

Visible problem: High & increasing cost Invisible problem: Lack of innovation Three signs of stagnation...

Sign No. 1 of Stagnation

US health worse than eight countries that spend much less on health care. COUNTRY LIFE EXPECTANCY
US Chile Australia 79.9 years 78.6 years 81.4 years

SPENDING PER PERSON

$7000 $800 $3000

US has both old & new health care. Australia & Chile have only old health care. Conclusion: Expensive new health care no help.

Sign No. 2 of Stagnation Main Sources of Death/Disability

      

Heart disease Cancer Depression Arthritis Stroke Diabetes Obesity

Sign No. 2 of Stagnation: Nobel Prize Irrelevance

YEAR
2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 PRIZE-WINNING WORK in-vitro fertilization telomeres cervical cancer virus, HIV virus gene modification via stem cells RNA interference ulcer-causing bacteria odor receptors magnetic resonance imaging

Sign No. 3 of Stagnation: Old Treatments



Obesity. Mainstream treatments:



Eat less, move more. Common since at least 1950s. Low-fat diet. Introduced 1960s, mass popularity began 1980s. Low-carb diet. Banting diet published 1864. Antidepressants. The first SSRI (Prozac) introduced 1986. Cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT). Introduced 1960s.

Depression. Mainstream treatments:



Why Stagnation? A Theory Two Supply Chains

Cinnamon Farmer in Sri Lanka ($2/kg) many people Cook in London ($40/kg) Health Care Scientist (price?) many people Sick person (price?)

Health Care Middlemen

    

doctors nurses psychotherapists physical therapists alternative-medicine practitioners pharmacists hospital employees

 

drug companies medical device companies supplement manufacturers insurance companies government regulators medical-school professors

 

 

Health Care Middlemen

Like everyone else . . .  want more income  strongly oppose less income  Against innovation that reduces their income. Favor small changes that increase income. Pressure to oversell small changes.

Two Effects of Middlemen

1. Visible: Push price up. 2. Invisible: Push innovation down especially innovations that don't involve them. I.e., cause stagnation. The stronger the middlemen, the larger these effects. US has both high price & stagnation. Conclusion: Health care stagnation due, at least partly, to powerful middlemen.

Three Flavors of Personal Science

1. Engineering (= new devices, new uses of basic science). Home glucose monitoring. 2. Scholarship (= study of existing knowledge). Rediscovery of ketogenic diet for childhood epilepsy. 3. Basic Science (= discovery of new causeeffect relationships). My work on weight, sleep, mood, & brain function. Will stress why personal scientists made these discoveries

Engineering: Home Glucose Monitoring



Richard Bernstein, engineer with poorlycontrolled diabetes 1969: gets machine that only needs one drop of blood. Intended for hospital emergency rooms. By trial and error, figured out how to normalize his blood glucose levels. Health greatly improved. Med school prof heard him talk about his results. 1980's: Study with other diabetics. Became widely accepted. Used by millions.

Engineering: Home Glucose Monitoring



"Greatest advance in diabetes treatment since discovery of insulin" Reduced power of doctors Required lots of trial and error to reap benefits Diabetic in poor health more motivated than anyone else

WHY PERSONAL SCIENCE?

  

Scholarship: Ketogenic Diet for Childhood Epilepsy

 

Ketogenic diet = high-fat diet. Developed in 1920s. Stopped being used during 1940s when anti-seizure drugs were developed. Became unknown by most doctors. Rediscovered in 1990s by Jim Abrahams, a movie producer, whose son's epilepsy not controlled by any drug.

Scholarship: Ketogenic Diet for Childhood Epilepsy



Not easy. But very often effective. Much better than surgery. Doctors aren't scholars. No connection with value system of medical school professors. Payoff for this sort of discovery much larger for parent than any professional.

WHY PERSONAL SCIENCE?

 

Basic Science: The Shangri-La Diet

Basic Science: The Shangri-La Diet

 

Developed over many years. Teaching introductory psychology, lectured about weight control. Tried various ideas on myself. My results plus reading = new theory. New theory plus accident = new way of losing weight

  

Basic Science: The Shangri-La Diet



Solution had three elements: 1. Knowledge of basic science. 2. Trial and error. 3. Accident. Weight-control researchers don't know relevant basic science (which came from animal learning research). Trial and error unrewarded. Accident required personal involvement

WHY PERSONAL SCIENCE?



 

Basic Science: Better Mood

Basic Science: Better Mood



Discovery had several elements: 1. Interest in Stone-Age approach to health problems. 2. Accident. 3. Trial and error to increase effect. Mood researchers don't study own mood Don't do risky research Far from beaten track sounds "crazy"

WHY PERSONAL SCIENCE?

  

Basic Science: Better Sleep

Basic Science: Better Sleep



Elements of solution: 1. Interest in Stone-Age approach to health. 2. Long-term sleep measurements. 3. Two accidents. 4. Trial and error. Sleep researchers don't study own sleep. No long-term records. Conventional sleep experiments very expensive. Far from mainstream. Cannot be sold.

WHY PERSONAL SCIENCE?



Basic Science: Butter & Arithmetic

Basic Science: Butter & Arithmetic

Basic Science: Butter & Arithmetic

Basic Science: Butter and Arithmetic



Elements of discovery: 1. Shangri-La Diet. 2. Experimental-psychology background. 3. Three accidents. Nutrition researchers don't study themselves don't study mental performance brainwashed by anti-fat dogma Psychology professors don't study nutrition

WHY PERSONAL SCIENCE?

   

Advantages of Personal Science



Motivation. Personal scientist cares only about solving problem (e.g., losing weight). Conventional scientist has many other concerns: publishing, grant, graduate students, colleagues. Impressing others, fitting in. Speed/convenience. Easy to make many "little bets". Freedom. No worry about being seen as "crazy". Outside the pull of the middlemen. Can try any treatment.

Why We Need Both Conventional Science & Personal Science

1. Job & innovation = oil & water. 2. People want to show off. Effective science requires boring unimpressive drudgery. When given freedom (necessary), few choose drudgery (necessary). 3. "Useless knowledge" eventually useful. Every example of personal science built upon knowledge & ecosystem of conventional science.