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• Fundamental ideas
• Bayesian reasoning
• Certainty factors theory
• Comparison
# Event_occured
p=
# Possible_event
p ( B | A) p ( A)
p( A | B) =
p( B | A) p ( A) + p ( B | ¬A) p (¬A)
1st Semester, 2005 SCCS 451 7
Bayesian Reasoning
• Rules:
IF E is true
THEN H is true (with probability p),
where E : evidence, H : hypothesis
• When event E occurs, H will occurs with
probability p(H|E)
• p(H|E) : posterior probability
p( E | H i ) p( H i )
p( H i | E ) = m
∑ p( E | H
k =1
k ) p( H k )
p ( E1 E2 ...En | H i ) p ( H i )
p ( H i | E1 E2 ...En ) = m
∑ p( E E ...E
k =1
1 2 n | H k ) p( H k )
∑ p( E
k =1
1 | H k ) p ( E2 | H k )... p( En | H k ) p ( H k )