Urban and Non-agricultural Impacts of Flooding Methods of Assessments and Vulnerability Analysis

K. M. Nabiul Islam Senior Research Fellow Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS)

Urban and Non-agricultural Impacts of Flooding Methods of Assessments and Vulnerability Analysis
STRUCTURE OF DISCUSSION

I. II. III. IV.

Impacts of urban Floods Flood Loss Assessment Methods Vulnerability Analysis Urban Floods : Related Issues (e.g. poverty, adpatations)
2

 Paper highlights urban flood impacts at micro- & macro level. It discusses econ. linkages & multiplier effects, interface of floods with poverty. Briefly discusses impact assessment methods suitable for Bangladesh. In process, it identifies various econ. sectors that are more vulnerable, drawing on experience from recent vulnerability study conducted in India.

Fig 1: Rising trend of economic losses in Bangladesh

Economic Losses (US $ Million: current values) Million 3000 2000 1000 0

936 1974

1167 1987

1424

2201

2067

1988 1998 Flood years

2004

Fig 2 : Trend in urbanization, Bangladesh

160
Population (million)

30 25
Urban population (%)

140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0

20
15 10 5 0

1951 Population

1961

1974

1981

1991

2001

2007

Urban Population

Urban population (%)

IMPACTS OF CC & SLR on FLOODING

CC will lead to uncertainity in rainfalls - So, floodings will also be uncertain. Recurrence for 1998 flood (90 Yr Flood) is likely to be reduced to 30 years in 2020s, and 15 years in 2050s. Drainage congestion likely to be aggravated by SLR Inundated areas will increase Frequency will increase.

So, increase in flood severity, on one hand, and faster urbanization due to in-migration, on the other, are great concern for countries e.g., Bangladesh

 Confronting CC risks for fast changing urban settings is a challenging task - however, we cannot reverse the situation. - what can be done is to respond/adjust to situation. Most important way of confronting the alarming situation is to obtain - a better understanding of climate change & its dynamics, which is linked to water/flood management. - to improve on knowledge of how natural hazards magnified by urbanisation & climate change can cause havoc to lives & property this is crucial for taking calculated action, especially in the context of - land use planning, resilience-building, emergency planning & management & reducing vulnerability

1. FLOOD LOSS TO NON-AGRICULTURAL SECTOR

Flood loss to nonagri. sectors are enormous In 2004 flood, nonagri. sectors suffered loss accounting for 74%, with 26% suffered to agri. sector (crop + noncrop). Similarly, 2007 Sidr : - Non-agri = 72%
Flood damage to selected sectors
1998 Flood Sector % of total damage 51 2004 Flood % of total damage 74

Infrastructure

Agricultural

49

26

Total

100.0

100.0

Fig 3: % of agri. & urban flood loss

Potential urban flood loss getting increasingly important, especially in wake of CC & SLR.

2 . Flood Loss Assessment Methods

Flood research - advanced-countries oriented As in other developing countries, flood research in Bdesh limited to appraisals - focusing on agri.

Bangladesh has serious lack of damage data & methodology for flood loss assessment. As a result, loss assessment have been based on arbitrary methods, e.g., in 2004 Flood, Estimate ranging from 10,000 crore to 42,000 crore Taka. Important to build knowledge & data networks To enhance economic and social resilience
So, it explores applicability of advanced countriesoriented methods for Bdesh

3.

Flood Impacts Methods in Urban Bangladesh at Micro Level

2 Modelling Flood Impacts Basic structure of modelling: Employs combination of (1) unit-loss method (2) Cobb-Douglas model (3) multiple regression (4) input-output model (Fig 4-6) for 1) direct loss 2) primary indirect loss & 3) multiplier effects. Direct loss model Direct loss model uses multiple regression by dam. components (e.g. struct. Inventory, m/c & stock to estimate at disaggregated levels of depths/durations. Model can use either absolute or proportional damages.

Indirect Loss Model

Indirect loss model has 2 components: (1) through Cobb-Douglas production function (2) Linkage Effects or Multiplier Effects through Inputoutput model. Cobb-Douglas model is based on Cobb-Douglas prod. function, which is of form: Qt = At Kt Lt Once function is estimated for before-flood situation, primary losses to output due to flood can be estimated through imputing reduced capital & labour This way STANDARD DEPTH DAMAGE DATA SETS ARE CONSTRUCTED- Data sets used to carry out national flood loss assessments in 1998, 2004

Fig 4: Flood Loss Model : Model 1

Fig 5: Flood loss model 2

Fig 6: Flood Loss Model: Model 3

4.Vulnerability Analysis of Urban Sectors

Unit-loss Models Unit-loss model, as widely used in USA/UK, involves, first, identify flood prone properties according to land uses, & estimate property floor heights. Through an interactive computer model (used in UK/USA; SPSS used in Bdesh/India) the model then employs standard potential depth-damage data & frequency analysis of flood levels, to estimate flood damage potentials in an area under study for floods of various magnitudes

Fig 7: Unit-loss Model (Modified from Parker et al.1987)

SPECIFY BENEFIT AREA SITE SURVEY

INTERVIEW
- HOUSE HOLD

HYDROLOGICAL SURVEY

AREA SURVEY LAND USE CODE

-INDUSTRIES - BUSINESS
- OFFICE/ROAD

FLOOD LEVEL RECORDS FREQUENCY ANALYSIS

L USE SURVEY
LEVEL SURVEY PROPERTIES FLOOR HEIGHT

AVERAGE DAMAGE DATA

UNIT BY UNIT DAMAGE ESTIMATES EXPECTED ANNUAL VALUE OF BENEFITS* COST BENEFIT ITERATIONS

RANGE OF SCHEMES COST OF SCHEMES

DISCOUNT

DISCOUNT

PRESENT VALUE OF BENEFITS COMPARE BENEFIT & COST FOR DIFFERENT SCHEMES

PRESENT VALUE OF COSTS

SELECTION OF OPTIMUM SCHEME

*Tangible benefits PRINCIPAL CONCERN OF LOSS/BENEFIT ASSESSMENT

 Thus, for any econ. or vulnerability analysis of any floodplain management, the single most essential figure is the estimate of Expected Annual Damage (EAD), which is the ultimate output of the unit-loss model.

 Unit-loss model is proved to be suitable in vulnerability analysis in Bdesh/India modeling regional impacts and thereby appraise urban protection schemes, through use of SPSS. Only recently, the model has been applied to Indian state of Gujarat in 4 cities (Ahmedabad, Surat, Rajkot &Vadodara) to 3.3 million urban properties to assess vulnerability analysis of various urban sectors (to prepare cities disaster plan, sponsored by WBank). The Model also going to be used for Ho Chi Minh City soon.

Land use and height survey

The land use survey classifies properties into major sectors (e.g., residential, business, industry, office and roads), ideally, each having a geo-reference as to the location of the properties. Land use survey is followed by a floor height survey of individual properties, which is of key importance to the precision of flood damage assessments.

Area approach and valuation approach

Both area (carpet area) & valuation (value of properties) approach can be adopted, depending on the data availability but the later is ideal
Calculation of flood damages by return period

Empirical relationships (Damage data sets) are combined with the flood conditions, & with land use information & hazard intensity to arrive at vulnerability for each area or for each broad sector for each of selected floods (with different return periods).

Estimation of Expected Annual Damage (EAD)

Relationships bet. return period/flood damages are converted into prob. density functions & latter is integrated between various return periods. Of course, one has to incorporate, as well, the future vulnerability, fragility and exposure into the assessment.

Fig 8 : Estimation of Expected Annual Damage

Trapezoid Rule : Divide curve into series of trapezoids, each with area =(average height)(width) EAD = Area under curve = Sum the areas of the strips.

Area under curve

Trapezoid Rule, Method 1

=(B6+B5)/2*(A6-A5) =SUM(C5:C10)

trapezoid

1
2 5 10 25 50 100

0
6 16 30 48 70 96 area

3
11 23 59 83 218
Hypothetical Damage 120 100
80 60 40 20 0
1 .1 2 .50 5 .50 10 25 .05 50 .02 100 .01

39

Flood Years
.10

Exceedance probability

5. Interface of Flooding with Poverty

Empirical evidence shows that low-income occupants are relatively more vulnerable to floods. Lower level of income higher percentage of damages to their total asset values (Table 1). On average, poorest-type house suffers (in proportional terms) 4, 5 & 3 times as much, compared to that suffered by a richest-type house, in river, flash & tidal flood. Floods not only deepen poverty levels but also may help widen income gap between rich & poor. Another analysis shows that land poor HH (also lower income categories) suffer higher inundation levels & are hence more exposed to flood risks. An analysis on WFP data for 92 UZs shows a close positive relationship between percentage of flooded areas & percentage of ultra people (r=0.33, p < 0.001).

Table 1: FLOOD AND POVERTY

House type/ Socio-econ. Groups
Damage as % of property value River flood BB (High-income ) Flash flood Tidal flood

BC (Middle-income)
MC (Lower -income) MT (Lowest-income)

ALL

7.3 10.7 11.2 26.2 10.2

6.2 NA 11.6 30.7 11.4

22.5 32.1 55.0 64.1 33.6

6.

Selected Adaptation Options

Flood loss potentials to roads & highways infrastructure have been huge. - Protecting nearly 21,000 km of R & H is of prime importance for national economy. - An analysis (DFID) shows that flood proofing of R & H would Pro Poor & economically efficient. - Best estimate of B-C ratio is found to be 1.7 (at12%) - The option will also bring other social benefits (intangible), in terms of (1) saving human lives/livestock (2) use as refuge (3) damage saving of inventory (4) employment generation & poverty reduction, & (5) facilitation of movement of relief goods during flood emergencies. The second option relates to flood proofing of individual homesteads by means of constructing raised platforms - Again best estimate of B-C ratio is 1.9 (at 12%) - Besides, the option will crate additional employment, thereby contributing to poverty reduction (Fig 9).

Fig 9: Women involved in homestead raising

7.

Concluding Remarks

It is high time to act now to avoid the very worst impacts of climate change. Important link exists between spatial planning/urban planning and Flood Risk, via land use, zoning violations, illegal economic activities, urbanization, loss of infiltration capacity, reduced storage for flood waters, worsened by CC A comprehensive prior knowledge of the dimension/magnitude of urban flood damage is crucial for taking calculated action Some floods in agricultural sector can be adjusted while urban & non-agricultural flood losses are enormous. Hence, greater attention has to be given on urban flood hazard.

 Floods not only deepen poverty levels but also help widen income gap between rich & poor. Distributional effects are important as, these are related to equity, which, in turn, is associated with sustainability of economic development. Primary & long run indirect effects of floods on poor need careful consideration when formulating mitigation plans.

Many problems still to come Avoid multiplying the problems Avoid problems with new developments Coordinated efforts in urban infrastructure devlpment, Proper spatial planning, Zoning Enforcement of land development regulations, land conservation No Space for Water, no space for people Integrate Spatial planning with Water/Flood Mngement IT IS TIME TO ACT BEFORE IT IS LATE

THANK YOU