 Simulations with the Parallel Climate Model show that human-caused changes in

tropopause height are greater than those from natural effects alone.
 Major volcanic eruptions tend to decrease tropopause height while human activity
tends to increase it.
 The modeling results are consistent with observational data from the National Center
for Atmospheric Research and the National Center for Environmental Prediction
(NCEP) and from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA).
Evidence on rising surface temperature

 Warming world
The world heated up by about 0.6 degrees last century, and the
1990s were the warmest decade on record, the International Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) says
 Other evidence : tree rings, corals, bubbles trapped in ice.
Scientists say average global temperatures have varied by less than one degree
since the dawn of human civilisation, although they fluctuated much more before

that. The IPCC predicts a global rise between 1.4C and 5.8C by the year 2100 .
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/3143798.stm#
 Rising temperatures are thought to cause sea levels to rise as the
oceans expand and polar ice melts. The IPCC says sea levels rose
between 10 and 20cm worldwide during the 20th Century. It predicts
a further rise of between 9cm and 88cm by 2100.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/3143798.stm#
 According to the IPCC, North Pole sea-ice has thinned by 40% in recent decades in
summer and autumn. Global snow cover has shrunk by 10% since the 1960s and
mountain glaciers have also retreated.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/3143798.stm#
 This map, from the UK’s Hadley Centre, assumes that current emissions trends
continue, with moderate economic growth and few measures to reduce emissions. It
predicts the greatest rises in northern polar regions, India, Africa and parts of South
America.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/3143798.stm#
What’s the big deal?
 A global rise between 1.4 ºC and 5.8 ºC by the year
2100, so what?
 Earth = ⅔ ocean.
 Ocean = main source of heat to the atmosphere. The
evaporation of ocean water supplies atmosphere with
water vapor and when water vapor condenses in the
atmosphere, it supplies the atmosphere with heat (latent
heat of condensation).
 Ocean = highly important conveyors of heat through
current movement. Enormous quantities of heat moved
through water from hot equatorial regions to higher
latitudes.
 Thermohaline circulation pattern
 Thermohaline = colder &
saltier water makes the
denser seawater.
 Ocean currents move in a
giant conveyor belt = water
masses move according to
density from surface to
deep water oceans and
back again.
 Takes over 1000 years for
1 complete cycle.
 Impacts
 Recent evidence shows that the Conveyor system
has been interrupted → severe climate change
(Ice age).
 Unusual quantities of fresh water (iceberg
invasion & melting of Polar ice cap) disrupted the
massive sinking of colder water → shutdown of
conveyor system.(the recent ice age ~ 5 ºC
dropped in Equatorial region 8 ºC dropped at the
poles). Sudden shift in land temperature may
occur.
 One possible outcome of global warming =
increase precipitation over North Atlantic &
melting of polar ice → New ice age?
 Other outcomes – regional climate change
(rainfall & agriculture) & sea level rise (due to
thermal expansion & melting of glaciers & ice
fields)-flooding,storm surges,coastal erosion, heat
waves & drought.
Warming Processes – Earth as a
Greenhouse
 Light energy absorbed by earth → heat
energy at planet surface → heat energy
radiates back upward into space.
 Greenhouse gas in troposphere absorb
some heat & reradiate it back toward
earth surface.
 Natural background greenhouse gases
insulates earth → 21 ºC warmer.
 Global climate is dependent on Earth’s
concentration of greenhouse gases.
 CO2, water vapor, methane, Nitrous Oxide
(N2O), CFCs & other Halocarbon =
greenhouse gas.
Global Cooling
 Clouds cover ~ 50% earth surface → reflects
~21% of solar radiation away to space (=
planetary albedo).
 Volcanic activity – Mount Pinatubo (1991) sent
20 million tons of particles & aerosol to the
atmosphere → radiation was reflected &
scattered away → global temperature dropped.
 Anthropogenic sulfate aerosols (from ground-
level pollution). Sulfur dioxide from industrial
sources enters atmosphere & react with
compounds there → sulfate haze → reflects &
scatters sunlight & increase cloud formation.
 Carbon Dioxide – the main greenhouse gas
• Burning of 1 kg of fossil fuel produces 3 kg of CO2.
• Most mainstream scientists believe that increased emissions of greenhouse
cases, particularly carbon dioxide, are contributing to the warming of the
planet. This graph shows how carbon dioxide levels have increased as the
world has industrialised.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/3143798.stm
 Other Greenhouse Gases
 Water vapor – is a powerful greenhouse gases. If
temperature rise, evaporation ↑ & water vapor
concentration ↑. Further warming.
 Methane (CH4) – product of microbial
fermentation (main source=wetland), coal mines,
gas pipelines & oil wells. Animal husbandry
(methane generated in the stomach of
ruminants). Methane [] has doubled since the
Industrial Revolution.
 Nitrous Oxide (N2O)- Increased. Biomass
burning, chemical fertilizers. Long residence time
(~120 years). Also deplete ozone when in
stratosphere.
 CFCs & other Halocarbon- Long lived. Warming
at troposphere & ozone depletion at stratosphere.
Ground level – health hazards (asthma & lung
damage). Used as refrigerants, solvents & fire
retardants. Halocarbon has 10,000 times
Forests do not get growth spurt
from greenhouse gas!
• Will forest counteract global warming?
• Study in Switzerland- ↑ CO2 is unlikely to ↑plant
growth in a long run (plant just merely pumped
the extra C through their body, quickly re-
releasing it through root & soil microbe
respiration. Other limiting factors (N,water etc.).
• Newly planted forest might help in sequestering C
but it’s not a long-term solution.
• Central Siberia- temp. ↑ 3ºC since 1960. Spring
arrive sooner, more growing plants. Critics of
Kyoto Protocol claim that warmer climate will
have +ve effects on plant productivity &
agriculture in Russia.
• Scientists predict that summer will become drier
→ fire outbreak → releasing more C.
Positive Carbon Feedback Mechanisms
 Warmer climate enhance soil respiration, permafrost
thawing, decomposition of organic matter in peat, moors
& bogs ↑ C & Methane release.
 More evidences show that plant (terrestrial) release
methane gas.
 Changes in the earth’s reflection of sunlight as ice melts.
 Increase water vapor (greenhouse gas) as temperature
increase.
 Delayed effect – if ALL greenhouse gas emissions could
halt now, the heating would continue for decades.
 Ocean (the top 3 meter exchange gases with the
atmosphere) as heat capacity of the atmosphere.
 Some evidence show that deep ocean absorb heat.
 We need better understanding on natural C and Methane
sources & sinks.
Will technology help?
 Emerging technologies design to deal with CO2 emitted
from sources like power plants.
 Captured CO2 will be compressed & store somewhere
(underground at existing oil reserves, ocean but might
cause acidic water condition or inside rock).
 Given expected technical limitations, 20-40% of global
fossil-fuel emissions could be captured by 2050.
Example: NEW power plant fitted with proper equipment
could emit 80-90% less CO2. But applying existing power
plant with this technology would ↑ costs by 1-5 cents a
kilowatt hour (typical coal plant cost 4-5 cents/kilowatt
hour).
 Political Development
 Global warming ‘sceptics’ – 3
catogories:
1. Temperature are not rising.
2. Accept climate change but suspect it’s due
to natural variation (solar radiation,
volcanic etc.)
3. Accept the human-induced warming theory
but say it’s not worth tackling (other global
problems are more pressing).
 Kyoto Protocol
 An international agreement setting targets for industrialized
countries to cut greenhouse gas emissions.
 Targeted gases:
1. Carbon Dioxide
2. Methane
3. Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)
4. Perfluorocarbons (PFCs)
5. Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6)
 Kyoto protocol was agreed in 1997 based on principles set out
in a framework convention signed in 1992.
 Targets=industrialized countries to cut combined emissions to
5% below 1990 levels by 2008-2012.
 Each country has different target: EU 8%, Japan 5%. Some
countries with low emissions were permitted to increase them.
 Kyoto protocol were legally bind on 16 February 2005 after 2
conditions had been fulfilled:
1. Ratified by at least 55 countries.
2. Ratified by nations accounting for at least 55% of emissions from
what the Treaty calls “Annex 1” countries (38 industrialized
countries plus Belarus, Turkey & Kazakhstan).
 The first condition was met in 2002.
 US & Australia pulled out (2001)→ Russia’s position became
critical to fulfill condition 2.
 Russia finally rectified on 18 Nov 2004 (for stronger EU
support to join the World Trade Organization).
 Achievement todate – 3% (but due to nearly 40% dropped
in greenhouse emission by Russia, masking 8% increase in
emission by other rich nations).
 France, UK & Sweden have achieved target; Spain,Portugal
& Ireland no progress at all.
 Scientists says- Kyoto protocol cut too little , 60%
reduction is needed.
 Emission trading=allowing countries to buy and sell their
agreed allowances of greenhouse emissions. Highly polluted
countries can buy unused ‘credit’ from countries which are
allowed to emit more than they actually do. Credits can be
gained through activities that absorb C (tree planting & soil
conservation) in their own country or at other developing
countries.
Assignment for next lecture
 Go
to this website for information on
Montreal Protocol (Ozone depletion):

http://ozone.unep.org/Public_Information/4B_P
click on THE OZONE STORY (view slide
show).