Forecast: A statement of the most likely future Evaluation of various possible assumptions and determination of most probable Forecasting

ing is the art of predicting the future. Population forecast: predicting the changes in the population

There is a need for the County to accurately forecast population over time for the short and long-term planning horizon.
Current methods may underestimate population growth for both short and long term planning and has the potential for infrastructure to fall behind the demands of population. This infrastructure can be road network, utilities, schools, recreational facilities and public services. over-estimating population could result in large-scale capital investments that are under utilized with little returns.
There are more accurate applications to forecast growth than the typical linear extrapolation, like the growth model to forecast the need and location for current and future improvements.

 Cohort

Component Model Simple Curve fitting or Extrapolation Model Exponential Model Gompertz (Sigmoid or Logistic) Model. Extrapolation Economic-demographic modeling

 Cohort

Component Model: 1. This method ages the various age groups or cohorts in the population into the future and applies the appropriate birth and death rates. 2. It also requires an estimate of the level of inand-out migration. This method can be quite accurate when forecasting population up to ten or twenty years into the future. Future population =Present population + Births Deaths + In-migration - Out-migration + Net foreign immigration

COHORTS are population groups Defined by age, gender, and often race or ethnicity Typically five-year age groups 0-4, 5-9, . . . , through 85+ For example, women aged 20-24

COMPONENTS refer to population change Natural increase is births Minus deaths Gross migration refers to In-migration and out migration Net migration is inmigration minus outmigration U.S. Statistics distinguish Domestic migration and international immigration

 In

the cohort component population projections: births, deaths and migration are projected separately by applying cohort specific rates of population divided into age and sex cohorts However, when high levels of in-migration are expected over long periods of time, this model becomes less relevant because it focuses on the aging of the current population, while providing little assistance in forecasting the critical rate of in-migration.

 This

method plots past population levels over time in a time series and then extends the line or curve by regression analysis into the future to forecast future population levels Another shortcoming of this method is that long-term limits to growth (build out) are not factored in.

 An

exponential trend is one where the trend is increasing at a constant rate of change each year. This compounding effect of a constant rate of growth can result in astronomical increases in forecasted population in the long term. While this type of trend in growth may exist for a period of ten years or even twenty years, it cannot sustain itself for longer terms

 Many

biological populations (including cities) tend to grow at a rate over time that simulates a logistic or Sigmoid Curve. Population growth increases at an increasing rate over time until it reaches an inflection point, then the increase in population growth is at a decreasing rate until it reaches upper growth limit

 The

Sigmoid Model as illustrated in Figure 21, shows the upper limit, inflection point and the rate of growth. For example, the population increases at an increasing rate up to the inflection point, then the population increases at a decreasing rate to build-out. It should also be noticed that the greatest increase in population takes place prior to and after the inflection point.

 Develop

an equation that fits the trend in a given variablepopulationbest, using data for a particular period in the past, and use to predict future trend in the variable

 Determine

population and employment at the same time Exogenous elements are those forces determined outside of the region (national macro economy) or non-economic forces (national policy) May assume structure of model holds constant or changes Different assumptions are tested Forecasting is picking the assumptions associated with most probable structural outcomes

MIGRATION MODELS
There have been several models of proposed by various academic communities They are like: simple migration model Lees general model Gravity model Todero model Raven steins law Stepwise migration model Circular migration

Few models are discussed In this presentation ,they are as follows:

Decisions about migration are shaped by economic, social, and cultural

factors. Migration models formalize these determinants. They also may describe the effects of migration at its origin and destination and the interactions between those effects. Most formal migration models focus on economic determinants: opportunities and constraints on income at migrant

origins (limited capital and technology,

scarcity of employment, imperfect market environments), income opportunities at migrant destinations (demand for migrant labor in urban centers), and migration costs (travel costs, networks of contacts at prospective migrant destinations, border policies).

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