BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENSE

How Big is the Threat?

Bushs promise
2000- Campaign pledge to deploy an effective missile shield Presidential Promise

December 17th, 2002- Promised to have a Ballistic Missile Defense Program running by 2004-2005
Presidential Address

Is the threat to the United States strong enough to merit rushing an incomplete Ballistic Missile Defense Program?
Important to understand the threat in order to plan an appropriate defense 2 opposing camps
Proponents of ballistic missile defense Conservatives Believe that an imminent threat exists that makes it necessary to speed up our ballistic missile defense program

Opponents of ballistic missile defense

Liberals Believe that the threat that the United States presently faces from the nuclear states is not great enough to merit rushing a defense program that has not been fully developed

Main points of Disagreement

Testing Costs Countermeasures

Is testing necessary?
Proponents
Not necessary to test Testing will reveal the secrets of our defense capabilities Current defensive capabilities are sufficient for primitive nuclear missile attacks Test

Opponents
Only 8 of the 19 tests have been conducted, and with mixed results
Tests start out simple and get more complex Only simple tests have been conducted; still in R & D phase

Tests that have been conducted have not been accurate because the testing conditions were not realistic
Simplified tests Involved surrogate components (i.e. slower defensive rockets than the ones that would be used in a real situation; GPS satellites)

The government has been misrepresenting the testing success they have had
NY Times April 18th, May 18th Wall Street Journal January 14th 2000

 Proponents

Is the present threat great enough to justify the costs of BMD? Opponents
The government is devoting too much money to ballistic missile defense
10 billion dollars a year too much to spend Spending billions of dollars to defend against a threat that does not exist

Defense needs to be number one priority of the United States government

The nuclear states, specifically North Korea, Russia, China, Iran and Iraq, have made huge technological gains
Most countries that have the technology can produce nuclear arms within a matter of months Russia and China have longrange ballistic missiles capable of reaching the United States North Korea, Iran and Iraq are within 10 years of having missiles that can reach United States

North Korea not as much of a military threat as a proliferation threat

Country low on moneycant even afford the fuel to keep their fighter pilots in the air It is profitable to sell nuclear secrets and materials

The question of countermeasures

Proponents
The nations that we face as threats do not possess the ability to produce countermeasures complex enough to deceive our defenses
Must keep in mind who it is we are defending against (North Koreas economic resources; sophistication of Soviet Union) We have prepared for countermeasures which are far more complex than anything the offense could use

Opponents

Too many unknowns

BMD program cannot be pushed forward before we understand how to deal with the countermeasures of the offense We do not yet know what countermeasures are within the technological capabilities of the threatening nuclear states, nor how effective our program would be in defending against them

Countermeasures

Question: So, what does the rest of America think? Answer: It depends on who you talk to

Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance (MDAA)

Conducted polls of registered voters in AZ, MS, NH, SC and PA over the past year (most recent 05/26/04) 78% support the plan to deploy a partial missile defense system in 2004

Insert graph here

The Other Side of Public Opinion:

Coalition to Reduce Nuclear Dangers

April 2000 survey of 1000 adults was conducted by the Coalition to Reduce Nuclear Dangers, the Council for a Livable World Education Fund, and the Fourth Freedom Forum 59% support waiting to decide on deployment of national missile defenses until after the 19 tests are complete

How Can This Be?

Contradicting polls results have been published on a continual basis over the past 10 years Both sides use techniques to skew the results:
Preliminary questions to elevate concerns
Remind people about continuing Russian/ Chinese threat

Introductory clause
knowing that (US cannot currently stop one incoming missile/ many scientists conclude that it is unlikely such a system will work)

Compare costs to another cause (popular/unpopular)

Health care and education/ peacekeeping in Bosnia

What Does This Mean?

Poll results do not always give an accurate representation of public opinion The ease at which the opinions of respondents can be skewed could indicate a general lack of knowledge of Ballistic Missile Defense, and lack of exposure to all sides of the issue Political propaganda, world events, and the media are also reasons for constant fluctuations in results

Where Do You Stand?

Work Cited
Special Thanks To:
Dean Wilkening Michael May Carlos Seligo Dena Slothower

Work Cited
Butler, Richard. Fatal Choice. Cambridge: Westview Press, 2001. Carter, Ashton B. ed. and N. Schwartz, ed. Ballistic Missile Defense. Washington D.C.: The Brookings Institution, 1984. www.clw.org/coalition/pollmd2.htm http://www.brookings.edu/views/op-ed/ohanlon/20040412.htm http://www.state.gov/t/ac/rls/fs/2001/4892.htm http://www.ucsusa.org/ http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2002/12/20021217.html http://www.clw.org/pub/clw/coalition/polling.htm#bmd