Dispersion Modeling

A Brief Introduction
smoke stacks image from Univ. of Waterloo Environmental Sciences
Marti Blad, Ph.D., P.E.
2
Introduction
Many different types of models
Limitations & assumptions
Math and science behind models
Transport phenomena
Computers do Math for you
Gaussian dispersion models
Screen3 model information
Why use mathematical models
3
Types of Models
Gaussian Plume
Mathematical approximation of dispersion
Numerical Grid Models
Transport & diffusional flow fields
Stoichastic
Statistical or probability based
Empirical
Based on experimental or field data
Physical
Flow visualization in wind tunnels, scale models,etc.
4
Limitations & Assumptions
Useful tools: right model for your needs
Allows quantification of air quality problem
Space different distances, scale
Time different time scales
Steady state conditions?
Understand limitations
Mathematics-different types
Chemistry-reactive or non-reactive
Meteorology-Climatology
5
Momentum, Heat & Mass Transport
Advection
Movement by flow (wind)
Convection
Movement by heat
Heat island
Radiation
Diffusion
Movement from high to low concentration
Molecule Dance
Dispersion
Tortuous path, spreading out because goes around
obstacles
6
Diffusion & dispersion
7
Transport of Air Pollution
Plumes tell story
Ambient vs DALR
Models predict air
pollution
concentrations
Input knowledge of
sources and
meteorology
Chemical reactions
may need to be
addressed
8
Models allow multiple mechanisms
9
Buoyancy =Plume rise
z
Ah
h
H
x
y

Ah = plume rise
h = stack height
H = effective stack
height
H = h + Ah
C(x,y,z) Downwind at (x,y,z)?
Gaussian Dispersion
Gaussian Dispersion
Concentration Solution
( )
( )
( )


C
Q
u
y
z H
z H
x y z
y z y
z
z
, ,
exp
exp
exp
=
|
\

|
.
|

(
(

(
+
+

2 2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
t o o o
o
o
12
The Gaussian Plume Model
The mathematical
shape of the curve
is similar to that of
Gaussian curve
hence the model is
called by that
name.
13
Gaussian-Based
Dispersion Models
Plume dispersion in lateral & horizontal planes
characterized by a Gaussian distribution
Picture
Pollutant concentrations predicted are
estimations
Uncertainty of input data values
approximations used in the mathematics
intrinsic variability of dispersion process
14
Simple Gaussian
Model Assumptions
Continuous constant pollutant emissions
Conservation of mass in atmosphere
No reactions occurring between pollutants
When pollutants hit ground: reflected, or absorbed
Steady-state meteorological conditions
Short term assumption
Concentration profiles are represented by
Gaussian distributionbell curve shape
15
Gaussian Plume Dispersion
One approach: assume each individual plume behaves
in Gaussian manner
Results in concentration profile with bell-shaped curve
16
Is this clear?
Time averaged concentration profiles about
plume centerline
Recall limitations
Normal Distribution is used to describe random
processes
Recall bell shaped curves in 3-D
Maximum concentration occurs at the center of
the plume
See up coming model pictures
Dispersion is in 3 directions
17
Gaussian Plume
18
Graphic Gaussian Dispersion
Gaussian behavior extends in 3 dimensions
19
What is a Dispersion Model?
Repetitious solution of dispersion equations
Computer solves over and over again
Compare and contrast different conditions
Based on principles of transport
Complex mathematical equations
Previously discussed meteorological conditions
Computer-aided simulation of atmosphere based
on inputs
Best models need good quality and site specific data
20
Computer Model Structure
INPUT DATA: Operator experience
METEROLOGY
EMISSIONS
RECEPTORS
Model Output: Estimates of
Concentrations at Receptors
Model does calculations
21
Screen 3 model
Understand spatial and temporal relationships
One hour concentration estimates
Caveat in program
Meteorology
Source type and specific information
Point, flare, area and volume
Receptor distance
Discrete vs automated
Receptor height

22
Meteorological Inputs
Actual pattern of dispersion depends on
atmospheric conditions prevailing during
the release
Appropriate meteorological conditions
Wind rose
Speed and direction
Stability class
Mixing Height
Appropriate time period

Point Source
Source emission data
Pollutant emission data
Rate or emission factors
Stack or source specific data
Temperature in stack
Velocity out of stack
Building dimensions
Building location
Release Height
Terrain
More complex scenarios
23
24
Different stack scenarios
25
Model inputs effect outputs
Height of plume rise calculated
Momentum and buoyancy
Can significantly alter dispersion & location of
downwind maximum ground-level concentration
Effects of nearby buildings estimated
Downwash wake effects
Can significantly alter dispersion & location of
downwind max. ground-level concentration
26
Conceptual effect of
buildings
Spatial relationships
27
28
Gaussian Plume
29
30
Screen3 Area Source
Emission rate
Area
Longest side, shortest side
Release height
Terrain
Simple Flat
Reflection and absorption
Distances
Discrete vs automated
Receptor height
31
Why Use Dispersion Models?
Predict impact from proposed and/or existing
development
NSR- new source review
PSD- prevention of significant deterioration
Assess air quality monitoring data
Monitor location
Assess air quality standards or guidelines
Compliance and regulatory
Evaluate AP control strategies
Look for change after implementation
32
Why Use Dispersion Models?
Evaluate receptor
exposure
Monitoring network
design
Review data
Peak locations
Spatial patterns
Model Verification
image from collection of Pittsburgh Photographic Library, Carnegie Library of Pittsburgh
33
Review
Transport Phenomena
Meteorology and climatology
Add convection, pressure changes
Gaussian = even spreading directions
Highest along axis
Not as scary as sounds
Input data quality critical to model quality
Screen 3 limitation for reactive chemicals
No reactions assumed to create or destroy
Create picture for Screen3 word problems