Professional Documents
Culture Documents
HR Demand Techniques
Qualitative HR Demand Techniques
Forecasting Techniques
A. Trend analysis B. Expert Forecasts C. Delphi Technique D. Nominal Group Technique E. HR Budgets: Staffing or Manning Table F. Envelope/ Scenario Forecasting G. Regression Analysis
A. Trend analysis
Examine the relationship between operational
business index and the demand for labor( HR) Indexes like sales, number of units produced, clients served etc. Demand for labor means HR/ staff.
index(sales, number of units produced, clients served etc. ) Track the business index over time ( years, months or days or period) Track the workforce size over time ( staff or HR) Calculate the average ratio of the business index (sales)to the workforce size(HR) Calculate the forecasted demand for labor
Linear programming
Calculating a and b Ft = a + bt
b =
n (ty) - t y 2 - ( t) 2 n t
a =
y - b t n
Year (t)
ty
b =
b=4(24132530)-(8014)
a =
Calculating a and b
Ft = a + bt F2006 =3714.3+.15(2006)
B) Expert forecast
It is a qualitative process for determining
managerswho have details knowledge about workload, responsibilities and overall task responsibilities Org. own HR and business planning staffs: they use econometric and strategic models to predict future growth of company and economy Business consultants, financial analysts, university researchers , union staff members. Local governmental staff. HR manager may take help Experts from outside
C) Delphi technique
A carefully designed program of Sequential
,individual interrogations ( usually conducted through questionnaires) interspersed / scatter with information feedback on the opinions expended by the other participants in previous rounds Project coordinator collect information from individual employee then they forecast
that there will be a predetermined number of questionnaire that that the sequence will continue until a majority option exist among the experts 4) Issue the first-round questionnaire: project coordinator sends questionnaire to the experts. This is particularly his or her own particular demand estimate. 5) Issue the first-round questionnaire summary and the second round of questionnaire.
forecasting will be unreliable If insufficient attention is paid to develop criteria, experts forecasting will not carry meaning
estimates that contain the number and types of personnel ( personnel classes such as bank clerks, loans officers, and branch managers) required by organization as a whole and for each sub- unit, division, or department.
managers Considers historical staffing trends Competitors staffing practices Industry and professional associations Statistics
Administrative positions
President VP Marketing managers Sales staff HR staff Treasurer Financial Staff Clerical and general Staff
$1-10 $10-25
1 1 1 4 2 1 3 5 1 1 1 7 4 1 5 8
$25-50
1 2 2 10 5 1 7 12
$50-75
1 3 2 18 7 2 9 14
Production Positions
Executive chef Cook helper 1 8 10 1 15 20 5 25 30 6 35 40
F) Regression Analysis
Presupposes
that a linear relationship exists between one or more independent variables which are predicted to affect the dependent variable. The simple regression prediction model is as follows:
Y=A + BX
Where , Y = dependent variable( HR demand /
number of personnel required) A = constant ( intercept) B= the slope of the linear relationship between X and Y X= independent variable ( level of sales, production
Calculating A and B
Y= A+ BX
N (xy) - x y B = x2 - ( x) 2 N
B =
y - Bx N
Problem-01
X Sales Level ( $ Millions) 2.0 3.5 4.5 6.0 7.0 Y Number of Marketing personnel 20 32 42 55 66
1. 2. 3.
Calculate the Number of Marketing personnel equation. A=.82, B=9.17 For $8 million of sales ( x=8) , how many staff are required ? Ans: 74 For $10 million of sales ( x=10) , how many staff are required ? Ans:93
Problem-02
X Dating Contracts ( $ thousands) 1.5 2.0 3.0 3.8 4.2 1. 2. 1. Y Customer Service Representatives 9 14 21 25 27
Calculate the Customer Service Representatives equation. For $ 5000 dating contracts , how many Customer Service Representatives are required ? For $7000 dating contracts, how many Customer Service Representatives are required ?