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You Are A RISK

Manager

The Least A Manager Should Know

Effect of Uncertainty on Objectives

ISO 31000

Safety Defence Medical Engineering Operation Project

Risk is the potential that a chosen action or activity (including the choice of inaction) will lead to a loss (an undesirable outcome)

Risk May Be Future Issue Certain Future Problem Now

Personal Money, Health, Happiness Operation Sales, Collection, Profit Project Cost, Quality, Schedule

Apple Palm Blackberry Nokia Ericson Sony

Why How What

What?

How?

Why?

Effect

WHY
Objectives
Uncertainty

Goals Objectives Purpose Passion


Vision Mission

Objective
1. 2. 3. 4. Best performance Least cost On time Least surprises

Uncertainty
1. 2. 3. 4. Lender Insurer Contract Governance

Effects
Property Damage. Liability to 3rd Party. Injury. Dispute. Negligence.

Code of Hammurabi; 1772 BC

1. The disproportionate role of high-impact, hard-to-predict, rare events 2. The noncomputability of the probability of the consequential rare events 3. The psychological biases that make people blind to uncertainty

Pop Quiz

2007196911121972 20 07 1969 11 12 1972


What did Eugene "Geno" Cernan did on 11 December 1972 Last man on the Moon on Apollo 17

Context

HOW
Evaluate Analyze

Understand
1. Things You Know, You Know 2. You Know, You Dont Know 3. You Dont Know, You Dont Know

Analyze
Impact

Likelihood

Evaluate
Opportunity

Threat

Prioritize
Increase Good Reduce Bad

Decide
Accept Share Avoid Mitigate Reduce likelihood Reduce Impact

Control
Preventive Detective Directive Corrective Process Inspect Instruct Recover

Risk Plan

WHAT
Risk Report Risk Register

3 Parts
Risk Assessment Report Risk Register Risk Management Plan

5 Steps

Review

Context

Evaluate Analyze

Identify

Risk Assessment
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. To CRO, Senior Management or Board Status of operation or project Assumptions that remains right or otherwise. List of High Risks. List of Critical Risks or risks which have turn into Problem. 6. Status of Control and Responses to risks.

Risk Register
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. How much are the financial exposure? What are the High and Critical Risks? How much control do we have? How should we respond to the risks? What can we do to improve control? What are most urgent and important action that we need to take right now?

Risk Management Plan


1. 2. 3. 4. 5. What is the project about and objectives? What are the assumptions ? Who are the project team members? What macro uncertainties do we have? When and how are we going to identify micro uncertainties? 6. What do we do when Risks turn into Problem?

1. Risk Management Plan

What do we have? Whatever. What to do? Just do it. When to review? Why review?

2. Risk Register Concept


1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Context Identify Analyze Evaluate Review When, Where List, Cause, Source Likelihood x Impact Weak / Maybe / Good

Risk Register Template


Risk Description Likelihood Impact Contol Effect Priority

Late for office due to bad traffic causing discipline problem at work Store caught fire due to inadequate fire safety measaure causing loss of stock.

Likely

Moderate Set alarm clock at 5.30am High Install fire alarm, smoke sensor and fire extinguisher Business Interuption Insurance

Loss of income

NU / NI

Unlikely

RM10k

U / NI

Factory flooded Rare causing lack of raw materials and completed products not able to be exported.

Extreme

RM10m

NU / I

3. Reporting Risk Concept

1. High Risks 2. Critical Risks 3. Problems

1. Challenge what is possible. 2. Improve, to help others

Learning from Apple

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Anwar Ahmad Abidin

twitter.com/xanwara

+6 019-6649328

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