Disruptive Analysis - OMA Messaging Workshop July 2012

Fragmentation, intent & The Death of Ubiquity: why Telco-OTT strategies are inevitable
OMA Mobile Messaging Workshop Brooklyn NY, 12th July 2012

dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com @disruptivedean
About Disruptive Analysis

London-based analyst house & strategic consulting firm Advisor to MNOs, vendors, regulators & investors Critic of mobile IMS since 2005 and RCS since 2008 Published report on Telco-OTT Strategies, Feb 2012 Workshops on Future of Voice & #TelcoOTT
With Martin Geddes Consulting (credited for various slides here) Next events in Orlando & London in October
Twitter @disruptivedean . Blog: disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
July 2012
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012
Core thesis: Fragmentation is valuable
Convergence & standards
Fragmentation & innovation
new standardised services are neither necessary, nor sufficient. RCS is irrelevant at best, and actively damaging at worst.
July 2012
Messaging: key fragmentation drivers
Different User Needs & contexts New Business Models
Multiplying Ecosystems
New Delivery Technologies
July 2012
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2012
Context
Scale & scope Functional needs
Intent
Different User Needs & Contexts
Why do people send messages, anyway?
New Business Models
July 2012
Intent: 3 basic motivations for communications
July 2012
Information transfer
July 2012
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting 2012
Narrative
July 2012
Presence really means feeling an essence
July 2012
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting 2012
SMS vs. Intent

Information Transfer Narrative Presence
Running 10 mins late. In taxi now
Youll never believe what happened last night :-O

Miss you looking forward to Friday ;-) xxx
July 2012
Context
Intent
Different User Needs
New Business Models
July 2012
Context: Messaging moves to in-app/web model
messaging APIs need to fit the app narrative

July 2012
Service
e.g. SMS
Product
e.g. WhatsApp
Feature
e.g. Zynga IM
Function
Context: Device diversity = OTT inevitable

Probability of all of a users Internet / messaging devices being on a single telcos network 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
Free 3rd party WiFi
Shared data plans only a partial response
# connected devices owned

July 2012
Context
Intent
New Business Models
July 2012
Scale & scope

Communities
Relationships
Conversations Interactions
Unmet needs at every layer Many combinations of information transfer, narrative & presence Many ways to meet them No application can do it all
Rendezvous
July 2012
Birthday party!
Lowest common denominator services used as a fallback when nothing better available
July 2012
Context
Intent
New Business Models
July 2012
SMSC
SMSC
Roaming
Customer Database
Invoice
Alice
Bob
Transmission
SMSC Interoperability
SMSC Storage
Mobility Agent
Home
Availability
Customer Accountability Database
Invoice
Delivery
Usability
Ubiquity
Urgency
Relevance
Alice
Governance
Bob
Transmission Governance Interoperability
Relevance
Storage
SMS BBM Skype (mobile) Facebook (mobile)
Usability
Delivery
Availability
Mobility
Accountability Urgency
Ubiquity
Telco-style services
Transmission Storage Mobility Delivery Interoperability Ubiquity
OTT-style services
Usability
Relevance
Governance
Urgency
Availability
Accountability
Familiar
OTT-style services
Convenient Rentable Preinstalled Simple
Billed
Functionality
Reach Tailored Coolness
OTT-style services
Exclusivity
Free/Freemium Affinity
Familiar
Transmission Storage Mobility
Functionality
Reach Tailored Coolness
Delivery Interoperability Ubiquity
OTT-style services
Convenient Rentable Preinstalled
Usability
Relevance
Governance
Urgency
Availability
Exclusivity
Simple
Accountability
Personalised
Affinity
Interoperability is good but just another function
Presence
July 2012
You cant please all the people, all the time

Phone number Ubiquity
Other identity
Exclusivity
Mobile primary
Familiarity
Web primary
Novelty
at least, not with a single monolithic service or restrictive API

July 2012
Fragmentation is irreversible
OTT solutions target specific use-cases optimally

You cant beat them through interoperable generic messaging So join them through OTT-style innovation. or be happy with being lowest-common denominator for the residual use cases Telco-OTT services or partnerships are inevitable
July 2012
Telco-OTT is neither new, nor impossible
July 2012
Different models for Telco-OTT

Telco OTT service
Internet
Normal on net users
Telco service
Off-net extension user
Telco
Billing & ID
July 2012
Internet
Key success factors for Telco-OTT services
Organisation & governance
Managing cannibalisation
Design
July 2012
Software mindset
Conclusions
Messaging fragmentation is inevitable Consequence of myriad use-cases & human nature (Also because of technology, devices, ecosystems etc) There is a need for lowest-common denominator. . but it small & likely low-priced So-called OTT messaging is irreversible New standards wont fix anything MNOs need to innovate, partner, stick with SMS, or exit
July 2012
www.disruptive-analysis.com disruptivewireless.blogspot.com @disruptivedean AVAILABLE FOR WORKSHOPS, CONSULTING & SPEAKING dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com +44 (0) 7941 100016
July 2012

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Fragmentation, intent & The Death of Ubiquity: why Telco-OTT strategies are inevitable

OMA Mobile Messaging Workshop Brooklyn NY, 12th July 2012

About Disruptive Analysis

Twitter @disruptivedean . Blog: disruptivewireless.blogspot.com

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012

Core thesis: Fragmentation is valuable

Convergence & standards

Fragmentation & innovation

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012

Messaging: key fragmentation drivers

Different User Needs & contexts New Business Models

New Delivery Technologies

Scale & scope Functional needs

Different User Needs & Contexts

Why do people send messages, anyway?

New Business Models

New Delivery Technologies

Intent: 3 basic motivations for communications

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting 2012

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012

Presence really means feeling an essence

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting 2012

SMS vs. Intent

Running 10 mins late. In taxi now

Youll never believe what happened last night :-O

Miss you looking forward to Friday ;-) xxx

Scale & scope Functional needs

Different User Needs

New Business Models

New Delivery Technologies

Context: Messaging moves to in-app/web model

messaging APIs need to fit the app narrative

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012

Context: Device diversity = OTT inevitable

Shared data plans only a partial response

# connected devices owned

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012

Scale & scope Functional needs

Different User Needs

New Business Models

New Delivery Technologies

Scale & scope

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012

Scale & scope Functional needs

Different User Needs

New Business Models

New Delivery Technologies

Transmission Governance Interoperability

SMS BBM Skype (mobile) Facebook (mobile)

Transmission Storage Mobility Delivery Interoperability Ubiquity

Convenient Rentable Preinstalled Simple

Convenient Rentable Preinstalled

Interoperability is good but just another function

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011

You cant please all the people, all the time

at least, not with a single monolithic service or restrictive API

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011

OTT solutions target specific use-cases optimally

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011

Telco-OTT is neither new, nor impossible

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011

Different models for Telco-OTT

Normal on net users

Off-net extension user